501 Santa Anita Ln · Toms River, NJ 08755

$339,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Condo public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1987 $279/sqft · at area comps Est $344k · at est. $390/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rarely available renovated end-unit townhouse in the desirable Saratoga community. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home features a modern interior with fresh paint and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The bright white kitchen is appointed with quartz countertops, a custom tiled backsplash, a full stainless steel appliance package, and a peninsula with breakfast seating. Adjacent to the kitchen, the breakfast room offers sliders that lead to the backyard, which backs to a private, treed backdrop. The open-concept living and dining area is anchored by a wood-burning fireplace, perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, the primary bedroom includes a private ensuite bath, while the additional bed

Key facts

• $390 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee (approximately $390); Association amenities: community room, pool, basketball court, clubhouse, playground; HOA covers trash, common area maintenance, lawn maintenance, pool, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: No garage spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium; Model: Equestrian - End unit
• Construction: Condominium construction (year built not provided)
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; End unit; Attached property (condominium)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher, Microwave, Stove, Refrigerator; Gas cooking
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (located on second level)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Microwave, Stove, Refrigerator, Light fixtures; Fireplace; Ceramic tile floors; Crawl space basement; Living room; Dining room; Breakfast area
• Laundry & utility: Includes standard utility hookups (washer/dryer not specified)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $647 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $339k).
• Recommended offer: $334k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,132/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($88k/yr) (locally 529% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $339k implies a 329% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $333,915 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.18%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,853
• List price: $339,000
• Delta: -1.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-13,495
• Equity at exit: $50,546

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $42,247
• Equity at exit: $29,311

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,132 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$308 /mo · $3,697/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$390
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$868
• Net cashflow: $647

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,313

Max offer price $339,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $839	-5% $743	+0% $647	+5% $551	+10% $455
Rent	-10% $321	-5% $484	+0% $647	+5% $810	+10% $973
Rate	-1.0pp $818	-0.5pp $733	base $647	+0.5pp $559	+1.0pp $470

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2556 Woodland Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,500	$2.48	14d	1	0.97mi
2556 Woodland Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,500	$2.48	0d	1	0.97mi
100 Jumper Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1642	$5,391	$3.28	0d	23	1.00mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $390 · $4,680/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-08
   listed $339,000 Active 1084-char remark
2. 2026-05-02
   historical $339,000 1084-char remark
3. 1997-12-04
   soldstatus $79,000
4. 1987-12-23
   soldstatus $102,850

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,697 · $308/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,069 · $506/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,372/yr (+$198/mo · 64.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$3,697
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,966
• − Management: −$3,966
• − HOA: −$4,680
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable income: $2,725
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$654
• After-tax cash flow: $7,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+229.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $339,000 MOMLS
• 2026-05-02 Coming Soon $339,000 MOMLS
• 1997-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 1987-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $102,850 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,697 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.