406 Lazy Ln · Conroe, TX 77356

$269,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,835 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 2012 4,504 sqft lot $147/sqft · 27% below area Est $368k · 27% under · waterfront $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bonus Lot Included! Enjoy the relaxed Lake Conroe lifestyle with this move-in-ready home plus the fully fenced vacant lot next door, offering extra space to play, roam, or create your own outdoor retreat. The home features a brick and Hardie plank exterior, two-car garage, and wide driveway. Inside, a spacious living room with LVP flooring flows into a well-appointed kitchen with granite countertops, breakfast bar, stainless appliances, and pantry. Sliding doors open to a covered patio overlooking green space and a scenic walking path. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main level with an en-suite bath and walk-in closet, along with a powder bath for guests. Upstairs includes a large game room, three secondary bedrooms, utility room, and full bath. Cape Conroe amenities include a boat ramp, clubhouse, pool, and walking trails. Live where lake days and laid-back living come together.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Covered patio
• Scenic walking path

Tags

• FULLY FENCED VACANT LOT
• COVERED PATIO
• SCENIC WALKING PATH
• BOAT RAMP
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-997/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stewart Creek El (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 738 students, 46% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1069 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,307 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.32%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,081
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: -26.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
306 Lazy Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,725 (-6%)	2mo	$280,000	$162	77
1005 Lake View Dr	0.31mi	4/3.0	1,886 (+3%)	4mo	$349,000	$185	76
958 Lake View Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,807 (-2%)	1mo	$279,900	$155	73
18439 Sunrise Oaks Ct	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,876 (+2%)	1mo	$214,900	$115	65
10819 Scenic Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,670 (-9%)	6mo	$349,900	$210	63
18472 Sunrise Oaks Ct	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,606 (-12%)	2mo	$205,000	$128	54
18401 Sunrise Oaks Ct Rd	0.62mi	4/2.5	1,636 (-11%)	3mo	$154,900	$95	50
10467 Twin Circles Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,704 (-7%)	4mo	$210,000	$123	50
735 Moonwalk St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,630 (-11%)	2mo	$449,800	$276	46
18444 Sunrise Maple Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,571 (-14%)	2mo	$229,000	$146	41
255 Charles Ridge Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,565 (-15%)	5mo	$259,040	$166	36
331 Willow Sage Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,562 (-15%)	6mo	$239,040	$153	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-55,815
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-81,638
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1069
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,343 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$366 /mo · $4,395/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,448

Max offer price $255,224

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $70	-5% $-7	+0% $-83	+5% $-159	+10% $-236
Rent	-10% $-268	-5% $-176	+0% $-83	+5% $9	+10% $102
Rate	-1.0pp $53	-0.5pp $-14	base $-83	+0.5pp $-153	+1.0pp $-224

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18490 Sunrise Pines Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1976	$1,731	$0.88	14d	1	0.49mi
18544 Meadow Point Ln Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,950	$1.33	45d	1	0.59mi
18436 Sunrise Pines Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1952	$2,200	$1.13	45d	1	0.59mi
9913 Crescent Cove Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1805	$2,499	$1.38	0d	40	0.68mi
47 Presidio Rd Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	2059	$2,300	$1.12	14d	1	1.10mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 5106C Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$2,820	$1.59	45d	1	1.35mi
1751 Fennel Flower Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$2,246	$1.25	3d	59	1.41mi
15650 Walden Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$1,850	$1.77	0d	28	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,900 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,900 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,900 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-02-18
    listed $269,900 Active 909-char remark

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    Bonus Lot Included! Enjoy the relaxed Lake Conroe lifestyle with this move-in-ready home plus the fully fenced vacant lot next door, offering extra space to play, roam, or create your own outdoor retreat. The home features a brick and Hardie plank exterior, two-car garage, and wide driveway. Inside, a spacious living room with LVP flooring flows into a well-appointed kitchen with granite countertops, breakfast bar, stainless appliances, and pantry. Sliding doors open to a covered patio overlooking green space and a scenic walking path. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main level with an en-suite bath and walk-in closet, along with a powder bath for guests. Upstairs includes a large game room, three secondary bedrooms, utility room, and full bath. Cape Conroe amenities include a boat ramp, clubhouse, pool, and walking trails. Live where lake days and laid-back living come together.

17. 2026-02-18
    historical

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    Bonus Lot Included! Enjoy the relaxed Lake Conroe lifestyle with this move-in-ready home plus the fully fenced vacant lot next door, offering extra space to play, roam, or create your own outdoor retreat. The home features a brick and Hardie plank exterior, two-car garage, and wide driveway. Inside, a spacious living room with LVP flooring flows into a well-appointed kitchen with granite countertops, breakfast bar, stainless appliances, and pantry. Sliding doors open to a covered patio overlooking green space and a scenic walking path. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main level with an en-suite bath and walk-in closet, along with a powder bath for guests. Upstairs includes a large game room, three secondary bedrooms, utility room, and full bath. Cape Conroe amenities include a boat ramp, clubhouse, pool, and walking trails. Live where lake days and laid-back living come together.

18. 2025-10-17
    price $274,000
19. 2025-08-16
    price $279,500
20. 2025-06-09
    price $299,999
21. 2025-05-02
    price $344,500
22. 2025-04-17
    listed $349,500 Active
23. 2014-01-27
    soldstatus
24. 1999-05-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,395 · $366/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,939 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: +$544/yr (+$45/mo · 12.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$4,395
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,249
• − Management: −$2,249
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$5,577
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,338
• After-tax cash flow: $341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $274,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $279,500 HARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $299,999 HARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $344,500 HARMLS
• 2025-04-17 Listed $349,500 HARMLS
• 2014-01-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+40.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,395 · +15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.