8311 19th Ave E #29 · Midland, WA 98404

$169,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Manufactured public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1999 $113/sqft · 59% below area ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 4 BDRM 1.75 BATH is beautifully remodeled living masterpiece that sports many upgrades & features into this home: like newly designed & installed quartz countertops with a large stainless steel sink, new appliances, including new refrigerator, new stove, new DW, new W & D, large great room, newly built backyard party deck, has its own kitchen eating area nook, newly painted interior with newly installed base board outlining the newly installed laminate flooring t/o, while newly painted hardi-backer ext. siding, newly installed interior fixtures in both bathrooms, light fixtures etc, newly installed Hot H20 heater for years of use & enjoyment, newly installed exter

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Backyard party deck
• Laminate flooring

Tags

• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL SINK
• NEW APPLIANCES
• BACKYARD PARTY DECK
• KITCHEN EATING AREA NOOK
• LAMINATE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $926 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.2% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#208 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Franklin Pierce School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #197 of 291 in WA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 176 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $159,753 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.34%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $404,794
• List price: $169,950
• Delta: -58.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8311 19th Ave E #29	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-3%)	0mo	$169,950	$117	90
7605 20th Ave E	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+1%)	10mo	$479,950	$317	68
7907 21st Ave E	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,382 (-8%)	9mo	$435,000	$315	66
2003 77th Street Ct E	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+4%)	2mo	$450,000	$287	66
1822 75th St E #26	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,482 (-1%)	14mo	$160,000	$108	62
9321 21st Ave E	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+0%)	14mo	$380,000	$252	58
1906 E 75th St #29	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+6%)	10mo	$130,000	$82	57
9316 21st Ave E	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-3%)	11mo	$390,000	$268	56
1909 78th Street Ct E	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,608 (+7%)	15mo	$400,000	$249	53
7213 17th Ave E #15	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,387 (-8%)	10mo	$114,000	$82	47
2018 94th Street Ct E	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-7%)	14mo	$368,000	$263	45
1710 73rd Street Ct E	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	16mo	$162,500	$125	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $27,958
• Equity at exit: $25,340

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $86,465
• Equity at exit: $14,694

Cash invested: $47,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98404

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 176
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,546 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,480/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $926

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,374

Max offer price $169,950

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,488
• Closing costs: $5,098
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1425 82nd Street Ct E Tacoma, WA	4.0	2.5	1934	$2,495	$1.29	1d	1	0.24mi
1817 80th St E Tacoma, WA	3.0	2.0	1188	$3,200	$2.69	19d	1	0.29mi
10910 22nd Avenue Ct E Unit Jkt Tacoma, WA	3.0	2.0	1452	$2,200	$1.52	24d	1	0.34mi
908 76th Street Ct E Tacoma, WA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1065	$2,178	$2.05	2d	5	0.81mi
8015 Pacific Ave Unit 20 Tacoma, WA	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,995	$1.81	24d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-08
   price $169,950
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $173,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,480 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,666 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: +$186/yr (+$15/mo · 12.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,546
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,520
• − Property taxes: −$1,480
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,444
• − Management: −$2,444
• − Depreciation: −$4,944
• Taxable income: $8,865
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,128
• After-tax cash flow: $8,979/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin Pierce School District
• NCES district ID: 5302940
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,240
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #8227
• State rank: #197 of 291 in WA

Livability — Midland

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #5731

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living C+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,961
• Household income: $82,191
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 989.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 20% Asian 17% Two or more races 16% Black 11% Native American 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 7% Vietnamese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -462.09%
• Current HPI: 360.0843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.64%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $169,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $173,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,480 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.