3965 W 12th St · Erie, PA 16505

$240,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,520 sqft · SingleFamily · 67 Days on market

Built 1967 Poor condition 0.25 ac lot $95/sqft · 12% below area Est $274k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large single story block building in west Millcreek with ample parking convenient to Erie International Airport, shopping and Presque Isle

Key facts

• Ample parking
• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1967

Tags

• SINGLE STORY BLOCK BUILDING
• AMPLE PARKING
• CONVENIENT TO SHOPPING
• CONVENIENT TO PRESQUE ISLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $79 ($953/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.1% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Millcreek Township SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #105 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $220,000 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.42%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,500
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -12.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
937 Montpelier Ave	0.23mi	3/1.5	2,422 (-4%)	8mo	$279,900	$116	76
730 Harmony Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,230 (-12%)	9mo	$380,000	$170	44
727 Beaumont Ave	0.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,191 (-13%)	3mo	$275,000	$126	41
4817 Grouse Hollow Dr	0.37mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,143 (-15%)	21mo	$420,000	$196	28
4072 S Shore Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,750 (+9%)	22mo	$550,000	$200	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-33,799
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-22,784
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16505

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,099

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $245	-5% $162	+0% $79	+5% $-4	+10% $-86
Rent	-10% $-94	-5% $-7	+0% $79	+5% $166	+10% $253
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $140	base $79	+0.5pp $17	+1.0pp $-46

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3304 Baer Beach Rd Unit C-13 Erie, PA	2.0	2.5	1830	$2,200	$1.20	44d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 138-char remark

   Show marketing remark (138 chars)

   Large single story block building in west Millcreek with ample parking convenient to Erie International Airport, shopping and Presque Isle

2. 2025-10-24
   listed $240,000 Active 138-char remark

   Show marketing remark (138 chars)

   Large single story block building in west Millcreek with ample parking convenient to Erie International Airport, shopping and Presque Isle

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$3,050
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$732
• After-tax cash flow: $1,685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and improvements to become move-in ready. Significant work is needed on the exterior, interior, and appliances to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior walls — Significant vegetation and debris
• Major Driveway — Cracked and uneven concrete
• Major Interior walls — Exposed wiring and unfinished surfaces
• Major Appliances — Worn-out laundry appliances

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the property's appearance can attract buyers and renters
• Both Interior wall repairs and paint — Aesthetic improvements can enhance the home's value
• Both Appliance replacement — Modern appliances can attract both buyers and renters
• Both Driveway repair — A functional driveway can improve the property's curb appeal and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior walls · Significant vegetation and debris	Major	$15,000–50,000
Driveway · Cracked and uneven concrete	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls · Exposed wiring and unfinished surfaces	Major	$15,000–50,000
Appliances · Worn-out laundry appliances	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the property's appearance can attract buyers and renters ↑
• Both Interior wall repairs and paint — Aesthetic improvements can enhance the home's value ↑
• Both Appliance replacement — Modern appliances can attract both buyers and renters ↑
• Both Driveway repair — A functional driveway can improve the property's curb appeal and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millcreek Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4215330
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,734
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2224
• State rank: #105 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,631

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.22%
• Current HPI: 240.6976
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — GEBOR
• 2025-10-24 Listed $240,000 GEBOR