Peak (Asbury Pointe) Plan · Warsaw, KY 41095

$59,995

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 236 Days on market

$400/mo HOA · 48% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located just as you enter the Ohio River city of Warsaw, Asbury Pointe is directly behind Gallatin County High School and a short 30-minute drive to Florence. Asbury Pointe is a quiet suburban community close to shopping, employment and schools with two stocked fishing lakes and a playground complex. Residents enjoy access to two stocked fishing lakes, a family-friendly playground complex, and a beautiful adjacent county park featuring basketball and tennis courts, baseball and soccer fields, a playground, and a covered picnic shelter. With Gallatin County Elementary, Middle, and High Schools within walking distance, children can easily walk to class on pleasant days or take the bus when th

Key facts

• Tennis courts
• Playground complex
• Baseball field

Tags

• FISHING LAKES
• PLAYGROUND COMPLEX
• COUNTY PARK
• BASKETBALL COURTS
• TENNIS COURTS
• BASEBALL FIELD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Warsaw, KY 41095
• Financial info: List price $59,995
• HOA & community: HOA fee of 400

Exterior

• Home design: Plan home, inventory type: Plan; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Construction details not provided
• Exterior features: 800 living area

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Peak at Asbury Pointe)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $38k (36.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($839 rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (36.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 4.5% in Warsaw — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#376 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Gallatin County (rural): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #137 of 165 in KY (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 56 units permitted in Gallatin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Gallatin County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 48% of rent.

Recommended offer $38,020 (36.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.85%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.37% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $16,740
• Equity at exit: $47,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.36×
• Total profit: $56,370
• Equity at exit: $95,015

Cash invested: $16,799 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41095

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $839 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$176
• Net cashflow: $-152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,031

Max offer price $38,020

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,999
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,995 Active 236 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,995 Active 235 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,995 Active 234 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,995 Active 233 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,995 Active 231 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,995 Active 230 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,995 Active 227 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,995 Active 226 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $59,995 Active 225 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,995 Active 224 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $59,995 Active 221 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,995 Active 220 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,995 Active 219 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,995 Active 218 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,995 Active 217 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$805
• − Management: −$805
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable loss: −$2,650
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$636
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,186/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gallatin County
• NCES district ID: 2102130
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $46,041
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8195
• State rank: #137 of 165 in KY

Livability — Warsaw

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #376
• US rank: #17814

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,775

Population outlook (Gallatin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,658 people
• By 2030: 8,616 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 8,410 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 8,140 · -6.0%
• By 2075: 7,308 · -15.6%
• By 2100: 6,671 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Gallatin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.9) · D 19.4% · R 79.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.6pp · 2024: -59.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.9 2020: R+55.4 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.37%
• Current HPI: 293.2896
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B