1405 E 11th Pl · Big Spring, TX 79720

$97,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 814 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1950 7,928 sqft lot $119/sqft · 106% above area ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,928 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $922 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#948 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Big Spring ISD (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #641 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Moss El (461 students, 75% FRL); Big Spring J H (math 25% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 516 students, 70% FRL); Big Spring H S (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 1,084 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 267 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 69 units permitted in Howard County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Howard County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,180 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.75%
• DSCR: 2.81
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $47,125
• List price: $97,000
• Delta: 105.83%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1411 E 11th Pl	0.03mi	2/1.0	773 (-5%)	6mo	$47,999	$62	85

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $43,068
• Equity at exit: $14,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.17×
• Total profit: $113,313
• Equity at exit: $8,387

Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79720

• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,037 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,652/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $922

Break-even live

Break-even rent $869

Max offer price $97,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $977	-5% $950	+0% $922	+5% $895	+10% $867
Rent	-10% $761	-5% $842	+0% $922	+5% $1,003	+10% $1,083
Rate	-1.0pp $971	-0.5pp $947	base $922	+0.5pp $897	+1.0pp $872

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,250
• Closing costs: $2,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1404 Wood St Big Spring, TX	3.0	1.0	964	$2,500	$2.59	25d	1	0.07mi
614 Ridgelea Dr Big Spring, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,280	$1.16	6d	1	0.61mi
901 E FM 700 Big Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$2,309	$2.42	0d	9	0.84mi
406 Goliad St Big Spring, TX	3.0	1.0	1092	$2,500	$2.29	25d	1	0.99mi
902 Scurry St Unit F Big Spring, TX	3.0	1.0	975	$1,000	$1.03	22d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $97,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $97,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $97,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $97,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $97,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $97,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $97,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $97,000 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    price $97,000
18. 2026-04-15
    listed $119,000 Active
19. 2024-05-03
    soldstatus
20. 2023-05-25
    soldstatus
21. 2004-10-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,652 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,775 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: +$123/yr (+$10/mo · 7.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,434
• − Property taxes: −$1,652
• − Insurance: −$485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,955
• − Management: −$1,955
• − Depreciation: −$2,822
• Taxable income: $10,139
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,433
• After-tax cash flow: $8,635/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810200
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,916
• Composite: 25.11/100
• National rank: #7529
• State rank: #641 of 826 in TX

Livability — Big Spring

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #948
• US rank: #16886

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Spring, TX
• County: Howard County · 29,936 people
• City population: 29,936
• Metro: Big Spring, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,936
• Household income: $68,785
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 638.0

Population outlook (Howard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,396 people
• By 2030: 46,792 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 54,096 · +24.7%
• By 2050: 61,707 · +42.2%
• By 2075: 79,809 · +83.9%
• By 2100: 87,385 · +101.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 45% Two or more races 17% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Howard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.8) · D 18.2% · R 81.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.6pp toward R · 2008: -46.3pp · 2024: -62.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.8 2020: R+58.4 2016: R+56.0 2012: R+58.2 2008: R+46.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.13%
• Current HPI: 140.8159
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Big Spring, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $97,000 PBBOR
• 2026-04-15 Listed $119,000 PBBOR
• 2024-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-10-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,652 · +17.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.