14380 SW 33 Rd · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$279,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,503 sqft · Land · 237 Days on market

Built 2025 0.33 ac lot $186/sqft · at area comps Est $267k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SELLER OFFERING CLOSING COST INCENTIVES — ASK FOR DETAILS. Brand-new 4BR/2BA home in Ocala, combining modern comfort with strong long-term upside. The open, light-filled floor plan connects beautifully to a gourmet kitchen with quartz countertops, soft-close cabinets, tile backsplash, a large island, and a full Samsung appliance package (including washer and dryer) truly move-in ready. This property sits on a larger, premium corner lot, offering extra outdoor space, more privacy, and a wider side yard compared to most homes in the area. Durable luxury vinyl plank flooring keeps maintenance low in the main living areas, while the owner’s suite offers double sinks, a walk-in shower, and quality finishes throughout. The 2-car garage with automatic door adds everyday convenience. Built with premium materials and backed by a 2-year systems + 10-year structural warranty, this home provides peace of mind whether you plan to live in it or hold it as an appreciating asset. Located just minutes from the World Equestrian Center, parks, shopping, restaurants, healthcare, and I-75, this corridor continues to grow year after year, making it an excellent choice for both primary residence and long-term investment.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Soft-close cabinets
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SOFT-CLOSE CABINETS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• LARGE ISLAND
• FULL SAMSUNG APPLIANCE PACKAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 43% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,575 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 1,017 students, 73% FRL); Horizon Academy At Marion Oaks (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 1,067 students, 68% FRL); Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1376 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $280k implies a 1974% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,543 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,075
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: 4.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-56,633
• Equity at exit: $41,747

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-79,149
• Equity at exit: $24,208

Cash invested: $78,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1376
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,975 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $711/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,081

Max offer price $265,222

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $-4	+0% $-84	+5% $-163	+10% $-242
Rent	-10% $-240	-5% $-162	+0% $-84	+5% $-6	+10% $72
Rate	-1.0pp $57	-0.5pp $-12	base $-84	+0.5pp $-156	+1.0pp $-230

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,998
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3011 SW 140th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,695	$1.27	23d	1	0.16mi
14245 SW 28th Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,900	$1.07	15d	1	0.17mi
2870 SW 143rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	2040	$1,850	$0.91	23d	1	0.22mi
2730 SW 145th Place Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,725	$1.26	23d	1	0.23mi
2632 SW 145th Place Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,675	$1.13	15d	1	0.29mi
14587 SW 25th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,750	$1.11	23d	1	0.40mi
14007 SW 30th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,675	$0.98	23d	1	0.42mi
2600 SW 146th Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1896	$2,100	$1.11	15d	1	0.42mi
2598 SW 147th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,750	$1.21	15d	1	0.47mi
14693 SW 21st Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,675	$1.20	15d	1	0.73mi
3500 SW 150th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1789	$1,750	$0.98	15d	1	0.84mi
2663 SW 152nd Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,600	$1.32	15d	1	0.87mi
2603 SW 152nd Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	1.5	1402	$1,550	$1.11	15d	1	0.88mi
13416 SW 31st Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,199	$1.23	15d	1	1.00mi
13410 SW 31st Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,899	$1.06	23d	1	1.01mi
2705 SW 153rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,745	$1.10	23d	1	1.03mi
13341 SW 29th Cir Unit NA Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,685	$1.06	23d	1	1.03mi
13341 SW 29th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,725	$1.08	15d	1	1.03mi
15434 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,780	$1.27	15d	1	1.06mi
2211 SW 153rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	23d	1	1.10mi
405 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,700	$1.08	15d	1	1.12mi
405 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,699	$1.08	23d	1	1.12mi
15415 SW 34th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,895	$1.15	23d	1	1.16mi
4004 SW 138th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,695	$1.26	23d	1	1.18mi
2584 SW 154th Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,975	$1.58	23d	1	1.18mi
15353 SW 21st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,200	$1.30	15d	1	1.22mi
13731 SW 40th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,695	$1.16	15d	1	1.30mi
4309 SW 143rd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,799	$1.45	15d	1	1.31mi
2240 SW 156th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,600	$1.02	23d	1	1.31mi
14525 SW 42nd Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,850	$1.38	15d	1	1.34mi
2673 SW 156th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,950	$1.05	15d	1	1.36mi
2725 SW 158th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$2,000	$1.27	15d	1	1.40mi
2500 SW 156th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	23d	1	1.43mi
3995 SW 134th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,100	$1.20	23d	1	1.45mi
14193 SW 44th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,599	$1.10	15d	1	1.45mi
15755 SW 33rd Avenue Rd Unit 1 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	23d	1	1.46mi
15701 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,900	$1.17	23d	1	1.49mi
13690 SW 43rd Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1802	$2,200	$1.22	15d	1	1.49mi
13805 SW 43rd Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1494	$1,800	$1.20	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $279,990 Active 237 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,990 Active 234 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,990 Active 233 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,990 Active 232 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,990 Active 231 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,990 Active 229 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,990 Active 228 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,990 Active 226 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,990 Active 225 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,990 Active 224 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $279,990 Active 223 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $286,900 Active 219 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $286,900 Active 218 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $286,900 Active 216 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $286,900 Active 215 DOM
16. 2026-03-30
    price $286,900 1229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1229 chars)

    SELLER OFFERING CLOSING COST INCENTIVES — ASK FOR DETAILS. Brand-new 4BR/2BA home in Ocala, combining modern comfort with strong long-term upside. The open, light-filled floor plan connects beautifully to a gourmet kitchen with quartz countertops, soft-close cabinets, tile backsplash, a large island, and a full Samsung appliance package (including washer and dryer) truly move-in ready. This property sits on a larger, premium corner lot, offering extra outdoor space, more privacy, and a wider side yard compared to most homes in the area. Durable luxury vinyl plank flooring keeps maintenance low in the main living areas, while the owner’s suite offers double sinks, a walk-in shower, and quality finishes throughout. The 2-car garage with automatic door adds everyday convenience. Built with premium materials and backed by a 2-year systems + 10-year structural warranty, this home provides peace of mind whether you plan to live in it or hold it as an appreciating asset. Located just minutes from the World Equestrian Center, parks, shopping, restaurants, healthcare, and I-75, this corridor continues to grow year after year, making it an excellent choice for both primary residence and long-term investment.

17. 2026-03-02
    price $289,800 1229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1229 chars)

    SELLER OFFERING CLOSING COST INCENTIVES — ASK FOR DETAILS. Brand-new 4BR/2BA home in Ocala, combining modern comfort with strong long-term upside. The open, light-filled floor plan connects beautifully to a gourmet kitchen with quartz countertops, soft-close cabinets, tile backsplash, a large island, and a full Samsung appliance package (including washer and dryer) truly move-in ready. This property sits on a larger, premium corner lot, offering extra outdoor space, more privacy, and a wider side yard compared to most homes in the area. Durable luxury vinyl plank flooring keeps maintenance low in the main living areas, while the owner’s suite offers double sinks, a walk-in shower, and quality finishes throughout. The 2-car garage with automatic door adds everyday convenience. Built with premium materials and backed by a 2-year systems + 10-year structural warranty, this home provides peace of mind whether you plan to live in it or hold it as an appreciating asset. Located just minutes from the World Equestrian Center, parks, shopping, restaurants, healthcare, and I-75, this corridor continues to grow year after year, making it an excellent choice for both primary residence and long-term investment.

18. 2025-10-31
    price $289,900 1229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1229 chars)

    SELLER OFFERING CLOSING COST INCENTIVES — ASK FOR DETAILS. Brand-new 4BR/2BA home in Ocala, combining modern comfort with strong long-term upside. The open, light-filled floor plan connects beautifully to a gourmet kitchen with quartz countertops, soft-close cabinets, tile backsplash, a large island, and a full Samsung appliance package (including washer and dryer) truly move-in ready. This property sits on a larger, premium corner lot, offering extra outdoor space, more privacy, and a wider side yard compared to most homes in the area. Durable luxury vinyl plank flooring keeps maintenance low in the main living areas, while the owner’s suite offers double sinks, a walk-in shower, and quality finishes throughout. The 2-car garage with automatic door adds everyday convenience. Built with premium materials and backed by a 2-year systems + 10-year structural warranty, this home provides peace of mind whether you plan to live in it or hold it as an appreciating asset. Located just minutes from the World Equestrian Center, parks, shopping, restaurants, healthcare, and I-75, this corridor continues to grow year after year, making it an excellent choice for both primary residence and long-term investment.

19. 2025-10-27
    listed $282,900 Active 1229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1229 chars)

    SELLER OFFERING CLOSING COST INCENTIVES — ASK FOR DETAILS. Brand-new 4BR/2BA home in Ocala, combining modern comfort with strong long-term upside. The open, light-filled floor plan connects beautifully to a gourmet kitchen with quartz countertops, soft-close cabinets, tile backsplash, a large island, and a full Samsung appliance package (including washer and dryer) truly move-in ready. This property sits on a larger, premium corner lot, offering extra outdoor space, more privacy, and a wider side yard compared to most homes in the area. Durable luxury vinyl plank flooring keeps maintenance low in the main living areas, while the owner’s suite offers double sinks, a walk-in shower, and quality finishes throughout. The 2-car garage with automatic door adds everyday convenience. Built with premium materials and backed by a 2-year systems + 10-year structural warranty, this home provides peace of mind whether you plan to live in it or hold it as an appreciating asset. Located just minutes from the World Equestrian Center, parks, shopping, restaurants, healthcare, and I-75, this corridor continues to grow year after year, making it an excellent choice for both primary residence and long-term investment.

20. 2019-12-01
    historical
21. 2018-11-30
    listed $15,000
22. 2004-06-25
    soldstatus $13,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $711 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,324 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,613/yr (+$134/mo · 227.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$711
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,896
• − Management: −$1,896
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$6,027
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,447
• After-tax cash flow: $443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2025.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $286,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $289,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Listed $282,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-30 Listed $15,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $711 · +91.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.