401 9th St · Lake Arthur, NM 88253

$70,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,633 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 307 Days on market

Built 1969 0.32 ac lot ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all investors! This property may need a little vision and elbow grease, but it offers an incredible opportunity for the right buyer! With lots of square footage and generous lot size, this home is a blank canvas just waiting to be brought back to life. Perfect for investors, flippers, or anyone looking to create their dream space from the ground up. Being sold AS-IS. Don’t miss your chance to turn this diamond in the rough into a real gem!

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Listed 306 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $568 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#210 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, crime F.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 88 units permitted in Chaves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 307 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 307 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.80%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $44,622
• Equity at exit: $31,475

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.52×
• Total profit: $108,100
• Equity at exit: $48,507

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88253

• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,261 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $377/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $568

Break-even live

Break-even rent $541

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $608	-5% $588	+0% $568	+5% $549	+10% $529
Rent	-10% $469	-5% $519	+0% $568	+5% $618	+10% $668
Rate	-1.0pp $604	-0.5pp $586	base $568	+0.5pp $550	+1.0pp $532

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 307 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 306 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 305 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 304 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 303 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 301 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 300 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 297 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 296 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 295 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $70,000 Active 292 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 290 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 289 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 288 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 287 DOM
16. 2026-02-11
    price $70,000 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    Calling all investors! This property may need a little vision and elbow grease, but it offers an incredible opportunity for the right buyer! With lots of square footage and generous lot size, this home is a blank canvas just waiting to be brought back to life. Perfect for investors, flippers, or anyone looking to create their dream space from the ground up. Being sold AS-IS. Don’t miss your chance to turn this diamond in the rough into a real gem!

17. 2025-10-21
    price $75,000 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    Calling all investors! This property may need a little vision and elbow grease, but it offers an incredible opportunity for the right buyer! With lots of square footage and generous lot size, this home is a blank canvas just waiting to be brought back to life. Perfect for investors, flippers, or anyone looking to create their dream space from the ground up. Being sold AS-IS. Don’t miss your chance to turn this diamond in the rough into a real gem!

18. 2025-08-15
    listed $80,000 Active 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    Calling all investors! This property may need a little vision and elbow grease, but it offers an incredible opportunity for the right buyer! With lots of square footage and generous lot size, this home is a blank canvas just waiting to be brought back to life. Perfect for investors, flippers, or anyone looking to create their dream space from the ground up. Being sold AS-IS. Don’t miss your chance to turn this diamond in the rough into a real gem!

19. 2016-06-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $377 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $560 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: +$183/yr (+$15/mo · 48.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$377
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,211
• − Management: −$1,211
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $6,026
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,446
• After-tax cash flow: $5,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Lake Arthur

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #210
• US rank: #23532

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Arthur, NM
• Population (ZIP): 915

Population outlook (Chaves County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,122 people
• By 2030: 66,351 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 66,818 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 66,928 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 65,474 · -1.0%
• By 2100: 58,943 · -10.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (50%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 48% Two or more races 19% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 13% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Chaves

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.8) · D 26.8% · R 71.6% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -44.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.8 2020: R+41.3 2016: R+36.4 2012: R+32.4 2008: R+24.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $70,000 NMMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $75,000 NMMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $80,000 NMMLS
• 2016-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $377 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.