9011 Fairway Loop Unit 8B-056 · Dade City, FL 33525

$94,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 196 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This New Palm Harbor home is 1500 Sq Ft and situated on the Bucolic Scotland Yard's Golf Course. It features: Finished Drywall, Painted Trim Cornices, 5" Crown Molding, 5 ¼" Baseboards, LVT Flooring throughout, Comfort height Commodes, Soft Close doors/drawers, Rocker Switches and more… The Deluxe Kitchen has Cove and Apron molding, a large Island that's perfect for entertaining, an interesting Chimney/Range Hood, a Farmhouse Stainless Steel Sink with Gooseneck Faucet, and Stainless-Steel Appliances.

Key facts

• Baseboards
• Finished drywall
• Crown molding

Tags

• FINISHED DRYWALL
• PAINTED TRIM CORNICES
• CROWN MOLDING
• BASEBOARDS
• LVT FLOORING
• COMFORT HEIGHT COMMODES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $94,900

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Spec new construction, plan named The Oaktree; Address: 9011 Fairway Loop Unit 8B-056, Dade City, FL 33525
• Exterior features: Living area: 1,568

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.5% vs local median 4.6% in Dade City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 667 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.29%
• DSCR: 3.73
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,152
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39720 Sunburst Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-10%)	5mo	$230,000	$164	42
9744 Silverbend Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,792 (+14%)	6mo	$277,000	$155	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $71,156
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.53×
• Total profit: $173,638
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 667
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,548 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,424/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $1,357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $830

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10030 Sterling Ave Unit 1234467P Dade City, FL	2.0	2.0	1280	$2,744	$2.14	13d	1	1.00mi
10043 Collingwood Ave Dade City, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$3,000	$2.33	24d	1	1.01mi
8540 Boyt Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1674	$3,500	$2.09	24d	1	1.18mi
8313 Wheat Stone Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1864	$2,275	$1.22	24d	1	1.20mi
9960 U.S. 98 Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,500	$1.55	5d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,900 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 187 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,900 Active 186 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $94,900 Active 185 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $94,900 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 178 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,424
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,446
• − Management: −$2,446
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $15,711
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,771
• After-tax cash flow: $12,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 322.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B