236 Country Crossing Cir · Magnolia, TX 77354

$264,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,871 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2012 7,779 sqft lot Est $301k · 12% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-In Ready + Spacious Backyard With Storage Shed + No MUD Tax in Magnolia Ridge! Welcome to this beautifully updated one-story home in Magnolia Ridge featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a private home office. Built in 2012, this open-concept floor plan offers luxury vinyl plank flooring and a spacious dining and living area flowing seamlessly into the kitchen--ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The well-appointed kitchen includes granite countertops, travertine backsplash, a large island with breakfast bar, gas range, recessed lighting, and a generous walk-in pantry. The primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with double sinks, a garden tub, separate shower, and a large walk-

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Storage shed
• Private home office

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• PRIVATE HOME OFFICE
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Real Manage; Annual association fee of $400; HOA covers common areas and recreation facilities; Community features include curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces south
• Construction: Built in 2012; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Porch; Deck; Fence (back yard); Storage shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Gas range; Gas oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 15 x 13; Bedroom (First floor) — 12 x 11; Bedroom (First floor) — 12 x 10; Office (First floor) — 10 x 11; Dining room (First floor) — 16 x 7; Family room (First floor) — 16 x 14; Kitchen (First floor) — 16 x 8
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen open to family room; Pantry; Soaking tub; Tub with shower; Living and dining area
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-388 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (25.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,159 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.27%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $301,231
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
236 Country Crossing Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,871 (0%)	1mo	$264,999	$142	99
158 Piney Pathway	0.09mi	3/2.0	2,053 (+10%)	2mo	$283,000	$138	78
705 Autumn Lake Ln	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,920 (+3%)	1mo	$350,000	$182	76
309 Cumberland Forest Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,788 (-4%)	2mo	$265,000	$148	72
307 Bandit Cove Ct	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (-8%)	4mo	$285,990	$167	70
31814 Oak Xing	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,790 (-4%)	1mo	$264,900	$148	69
311 Bandit Cove Ct	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (-10%)	4mo	$277,990	$166	67
827 Deerhurst Ln	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,772 (-5%)	3mo	$219,900	$124	59
1047 Brighton Orchards Ln	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,826 (-2%)	2mo	$250,000	$137	55
706 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-14%)	0mo	$258,990	$161	42
514 Southern Magnolia Way	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-14%)	3mo	$265,990	$166	36
530 Southern Magnolia Way	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-14%)	3mo	$263,990	$164	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $114,648
• Equity at exit: $238,732

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.69×
• Total profit: $347,981
• Equity at exit: $514,835

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,932 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$380 /mo · $4,565/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,422

Max offer price $196,533

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-238	-5% $-313	+0% $-388	+5% $-463	+10% $-538
Rent	-10% $-540	-5% $-464	+0% $-388	+5% $-311	+10% $-235
Rate	-1.0pp $-254	-0.5pp $-320	base $-388	+0.5pp $-456	+1.0pp $-526

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
139 Piney Pathway Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	2332	$1,971	$0.85	26d	1	0.08mi
134 Piney Pathway Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	2329	$1,966	$0.84	0d	1	0.10mi
297 Country Crossing Cir Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1806	$1,731	$0.96	0d	1	0.11mi
359 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,725	$1.18	26d	1	0.43mi
273 Douglas Hills Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1922	$1,895	$0.99	45d	1	0.49mi
202 Alder Laurels Cv Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2229	$2,036	$0.91	24d	1	0.51mi
764 Autumn Cherry Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2196	$1,665	$0.76	45d	1	0.51mi
408 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	45d	1	0.53mi
423 Jewett Meadow Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,781	$1.36	24d	1	0.55mi
937 Gentle Moss Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,635	$1.31	7d	1	0.75mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	26d	1	0.92mi
30906 Sweetwater Cir Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2154	$1,949	$0.90	24d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-20
   price $264,999
4. 2026-03-19
   listed $275,000 Active
5. 2016-09-26
   historical
6. 2016-09-11
   price $189,900
7. 2016-08-19
   price $194,900
8. 2016-07-09
   listed $199,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,565 · $380/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,849 · $404/mo
• Expected delta: +$284/yr (+$24/mo · 6.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,179
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$4,565
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,854
• − Management: −$1,854
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$9,369
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,249
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+32.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $264,999 HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2016-09-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-09-11 Price Changed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2016-08-19 Price Changed $194,900 HARMLS
• 2016-07-09 Listed $199,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+18.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,565 · -13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.