22078 Grimes St · Bedias, TX 77831

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 414 Days on market

Built 1950 0.33 ac lot $73/sqft · 56% below area ↓ 51% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT location for this 3 BR home on FIVE lots one block off Hwy 90. The options are endless! Fix up the existing home and build on the other lots. Tear the home down and make one large home. Run a business off the property. Opportunities abound with this property! The house has a newer, roof but the interior needs work.

Key facts

• Five lots
• Newer roof
• 0.33 acre lot

Tags

• FIVE LOTS
• NEWER ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.8% in Bedias — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 40/100 on livability (#1,601 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Madisonville CISD (town): math 53% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #177 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Grimes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grimes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 414 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 414 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.33%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,026
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -55.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $3,068
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $24,381
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77831

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,063 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,127/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $728

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 414 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 413 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 412 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 411 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 410 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 408 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 407 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 405 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 404 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 403 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 402 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 397 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 396 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 395 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 394 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    price $85,000 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    GREAT location for this 3 BR home on FIVE lots one block off Hwy 90. The options are endless! Fix up the existing home and build on the other lots. Tear the home down and make one large home. Run a business off the property. Opportunities abound with this property! The house has a newer, roof but the interior needs work.

17. 2026-01-06
    price $90,000 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    GREAT location for this 3 BR home on FIVE lots one block off Hwy 90. The options are endless! Fix up the existing home and build on the other lots. Tear the home down and make one large home. Run a business off the property. Opportunities abound with this property! The house has a newer, roof but the interior needs work.

18. 2025-10-27
    price $95,000 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    GREAT location for this 3 BR home on FIVE lots one block off Hwy 90. The options are endless! Fix up the existing home and build on the other lots. Tear the home down and make one large home. Run a business off the property. Opportunities abound with this property! The house has a newer, roof but the interior needs work.

19. 2025-05-01
    listed $105,000 Active 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    GREAT location for this 3 BR home on FIVE lots one block off Hwy 90. The options are endless! Fix up the existing home and build on the other lots. Tear the home down and make one large home. Run a business off the property. Opportunities abound with this property! The house has a newer, roof but the interior needs work.

20. 2025-04-29
    historical
21. 2025-02-08
    listed $150,000 Active
22. 2025-01-06
    historical
23. 2024-11-06
    listed $155,000 Active
24. 2024-10-15
    listed $155,000 Active
25. 2024-07-07
    price $155,000
26. 2024-06-22
    price $165,000
27. 2024-06-08
    listed $175,000 Active
28. 2024-06-07
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,127 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$428/yr (+$36/mo · 38.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,750
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,127
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,020
• − Management: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $1,924
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$462
• After-tax cash flow: $2,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madisonville CISD
• NCES district ID: 4828710
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,234
• Composite: 43.02/100
• National rank: #3102
• State rank: #177 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bedias

• Score: 40/100
• State rank: #1601
• US rank: #27239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bedias, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,163

Population outlook (Grimes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,910 people
• By 2030: 29,539 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 30,648 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 31,698 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 34,351 · +18.8%
• By 2100: 33,565 · +16.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Iranian 3% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Grimes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.3) · D 19.5% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.3pp · 2024: -60.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.3 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+44.2 2008: R+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.27%
• Current HPI: 240.0197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-51.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-08 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-06 Listed $155,000 BCSRMLS
• 2024-10-15 Listed $155,000 BCSRMLS
• 2024-07-07 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-22 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-08 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-07 Coming Soon — HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,127 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.