2235 Badger Rds · Tobacco, MI 48612

$49,700

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily · 278 Days on market

Built 1992 0.92 ac lot $62/sqft · 68% below area ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

single wide trailer with 3 bedrooms needs work, painting and a good cleaning will get you a long way. This property was a foreclosure and purchased by an investor. the owner has never been to the property and knows nothing about it. There is a nice size shed in the back.

Key facts

• Nice size shed
• 0.92 acre lot
• Built 1992

Tags

• NICE SIZE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $357 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($875 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Beaverton Rural Schools (rural): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #364 of 540 in MI (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 90 units permitted in Gladwin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $344 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gladwin County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 278 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $43,736 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 278 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.83%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,166
• List price: $49,700
• Delta: -67.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $14,721
• Equity at exit: $7,410

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $42,166
• Equity at exit: $4,297

Cash invested: $13,916 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48612

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $875 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$261
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $629/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $423

Max offer price $49,700

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,425
• Closing costs: $1,491
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2795 W Knox Rd Unit 9 Beaverton, MI	2.0	1.0	700	$875	$1.25	43d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,700 Active 278 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,700 Active 277 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,700 Active 276 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,700 Active 275 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,700 Active 273 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,700 Active 272 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,700 Active 269 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,700 Active 268 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,700 Active 267 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,700 Active 266 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,700 Active 263 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,700 Active 262 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,700 Active 261 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,700 Active 260 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,700 Active 259 DOM
16. 2026-04-02
    price $49,700 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    single wide trailer with 3 bedrooms needs work, painting and a good cleaning will get you a long way. This property was a foreclosure and purchased by an investor. the owner has never been to the property and knows nothing about it. There is a nice size shed in the back.

17. 2025-11-13
    price $54,700 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    single wide trailer with 3 bedrooms needs work, painting and a good cleaning will get you a long way. This property was a foreclosure and purchased by an investor. the owner has never been to the property and knows nothing about it. There is a nice size shed in the back.

18. 2025-10-30
    price $59,000 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    single wide trailer with 3 bedrooms needs work, painting and a good cleaning will get you a long way. This property was a foreclosure and purchased by an investor. the owner has never been to the property and knows nothing about it. There is a nice size shed in the back.

19. 2025-10-07
    price $64,000 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    single wide trailer with 3 bedrooms needs work, painting and a good cleaning will get you a long way. This property was a foreclosure and purchased by an investor. the owner has never been to the property and knows nothing about it. There is a nice size shed in the back.

20. 2025-09-12
    listed $68,000 Active 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    single wide trailer with 3 bedrooms needs work, painting and a good cleaning will get you a long way. This property was a foreclosure and purchased by an investor. the owner has never been to the property and knows nothing about it. There is a nice size shed in the back.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $629 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $697 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$68/yr (+$6/mo · 10.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,784
• − Property taxes: −$629
• − Insurance: −$248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$840
• − Management: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$1,446
• Taxable income: $3,712
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$891
• After-tax cash flow: $3,399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaverton Rural Schools
• NCES district ID: 2604440
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,200
• Composite: 25.54/100
• National rank: #7431
• State rank: #364 of 540 in MI

Livability — Tobacco

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,505

Population outlook (Gladwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,440 people
• By 2030: 22,281 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 19,867 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 17,667 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 12,909 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 8,629 · -63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gladwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.7) · D 29.1% · R 69.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.7 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+7.2 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.55%
• Current HPI: 215.4508
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-26.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $49,700 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $54,700 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $59,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $64,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $68,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $629 · -43.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.