2303 Salt Point Tpke · Salt Point, NY 12514

$769,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,230 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1800 2.83 ac lot Est $571k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.7/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

PREQUALIFIED BUYERS ONLY & PRESENT A COPY OF LETTER W/ ALL WRITTEN OFFERS.YOU MAY HAVE ADMIRED THIS CLASSIC HOME FOR YEARS. SAME OWNER FOR ALMOST 40 YEARS AND IT'S TIME TO DOWNSIZE. SECONDS TO THE TACONIC. CHARM & GRACE OF YEARS GONE BY BUT MODERNIZATIONS LIKE CENTRAL AIR, & AUTOMATIC GENERATOR MAKE THIS A MUST SEE. FENCED REAR YARD, 2 CAR DETACHED GARAGE, LOVELY SETTING. WE ARE OPEN TO ANY AND ALL OFFERS SO PLEASE CALL W/ ANY QUESTIONS AND SELL THIS BEAUTY.,ExteriorFeatures:Outside Lighting,Storm Doors,Landscaped,Cooling:Ceiling Fan,Level 2 Desc:MASTER BR W/2ND STAIRCASE, TWO BEDROOMS, BATH, SITTING AREA,OTHERROOMS:Pantry,Foyer,Laundry/Util. Room,Formal Dining Room,Other School:ALDEN PLACE 3-5,EQUIPMENT:Carbon Monoxide Detector,Smoke Detectors,Water Filter,APPLIANCES:Water Softener,AboveGrade:2230,ROOF:Metal,Asphalt Shingles,FLOORING:Ceramic Tile,Vinyl,Wide Board,Wood,Level 1 Desc:LR, DR, EIK W/ GAS STOVE,4TH BR ,LAUNDRY W/ .5 BATH,FOYER,Level 3 Desc:FULL WALKUP ATTIC W/ STORAGE GALORE,InteriorFeatures:Electric Stove Connection,Walk-In Closets,Washer Connection,All Window Treatments,Electric Dryer Connection,FOUNDATION:Stone,Basement:Interior Access,Sump Pump

Key facts

• 2.83 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1800

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Central Hudson electric; Septic tank; Cable connected; Propane
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Finished attic; Full basement with Bilco doors
• Exterior features: Dog run; Garden; Back yard fencing (chain link)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Range; Microwave; Exhaust fan; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; High-speed internet; Kitchen island; Original details; Smart thermostat; Finished attic; Full basement with Bilco doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Oil water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $769k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($31k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $769k).
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 2.3% in Salt Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 34/100 on livability (#1,193 in NY) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Millbrook Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #198 of 755 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Alden Place Elementary School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 169 students, 30% FRL); Millbrook Middle School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 202 students, 37% FRL); Millbrook High School (math 87%, 271 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 17% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $82k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $77k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $215k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$132k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask is 55% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $248k; list at $769k implies a 211% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1800 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $769,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1800 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.21%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $570,880
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Ryan Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,300 (+3%)	17mo	$591,605	$257	55
2377 Salt Point Tpke	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,296 (+3%)	24mo	$254,900	$111	47
371 Clinton Corners Rd	0.46mi	4/2.5	1,956 (-12%)	14mo	$412,500	$211	46
391 Clinton Corners Rd	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,536 (+14%)	7mo	$889,000	$351	45
53 Jameson Hill Rd	0.70mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,048 (-8%)	10mo	$525,000	$256	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $581,145
• Equity at exit: $692,776

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.35×
• Total profit: $1,583,521
• Equity at exit: $1,493,998

Cash invested: $215,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12514

• Home prices YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,510 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,033
• Tax from tax record: −$610 /mo · $7,318/yr
• Insurance: −$320
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,997
• Net cashflow: $2,550

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,282

Max offer price $769,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,985	-5% $2,767	+0% $2,550	+5% $2,332	+10% $2,115
Rent	-10% $1,799	-5% $2,174	+0% $2,550	+5% $2,925	+10% $3,301
Rate	-1.0pp $2,937	-0.5pp $2,745	base $2,550	+0.5pp $2,351	+1.0pp $2,148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $192,250
• Closing costs: $23,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1539 Hollow Rd Clinton Corners, NY	4.0	2.0	1946	$3,500	$1.80	15d	1	0.49mi
1282 Hollow Rd Clinton Corners, NY	4.0	3.5	2650	$22,000	$8.30	14d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $769,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $769,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $769,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $769,000 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $769,000 Coming Soon 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $769,000 Coming Soon 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $769,000 Coming Soon 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $769,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $769,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $769,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $769,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    remarks 681-char remark
13. 2026-06-04
    listed $769,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,318 · $610/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,157 · $846/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,839/yr (+$237/mo · 38.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $114,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$43,076
• − Property taxes: −$7,318
• − Insurance: −$3,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,129
• − Management: −$9,129
• − Depreciation: −$22,371
• Taxable income: $19,250
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,620
• After-tax cash flow: $25,978/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millbrook Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619380
• Math proficiency: 65% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $77,504
• Composite: 58.47/100
• National rank: #2061
• State rank: #198 of 755 in NY

Livability — Salt Point

• Score: 34/100
• State rank: #1193
• US rank: #27748

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,306
• Population (ZIP): 3,120

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 4% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.24%
• Current HPI: 300.533
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+195.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Coming Soon $769,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-04 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-05 Listed $495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $247,500 Public Records
• 2013-04-01 Sold (MLS) $247,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-16 Listed $259,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,318 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.