16401 San Pablo Ave #290 · Montalvin Manor, CA 94806

$280,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,605 sqft · Manufactured · 8 Days on market

Built 2006

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Custom-Built 2006 Home in Tara Hills Mobile Manor Senior Park • 3 Bedroom / 2 Bath 1,605 Sq Ft One-Owner Manufactured Home • Enjoy the Afternoon Breezes from the Golden Gate • Includes Designer Furnishings Throughout • Custom Kitchen with Wood Cabinets, Granite Counters & Island • Updated Bathrooms & Walk-in Wardrobe Closet • Laundry Room with Washer/Dryer and Cabinetry • Vaulted Ceilings, Dual-Paned Windows, Central Heat/Evaporative Cooler • Large Front Porch & Landscaped Garden Areas • Well-Maintained Amenities and much more … • Community Amenities include: • Year-Round Heated Pool, Spa & Sauna • C

Key facts

• Custom kitchen
• Large front porch
• Granite counters

Tags

• CUSTOM KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• WALK-IN WARDROBE CLOSET
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• LANDSCAPED GARDEN AREAS
• YEAR-ROUND HEATED POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Park: Tara Hills Mobile; Senior community; Clubhouse; Greenbelt; Community pool; Sauna and spa; Game room; On-site laundry; Pet restrictions (size limit)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Carport for two or more vehicles; Awning-covered parking; Two covered parking spaces; Two spaces per unit
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide model; Single-story living; Main entry at street level
• Construction: Wood frame construction
• Exterior features: Front porch; Deck; Carpeted patio/porch; Awnings; Automatic sprinklers; Shed(s); Landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone counters; Kitchen island; Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range / cooktop; Free-standing range; Microwave; Range/oven free standing; Refrigerator; Updated kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (street level); Primary bedroom suite
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Updated bathrooms with windows
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating (natural gas); Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Updated kitchen; Main entry; Laundry facility; Window coverings; Screens; Double-pane windows; Storage area; Updated baths; Shower over tub; Stall shower; Tub; Windows in baths
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; Cabinets in laundry area; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $637 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#262 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• West Contra Costa Unified (suburban): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #993 of 1,400 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,256/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 2830% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $280,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.75%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,155
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16401 San Pablo Ave #433	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-11%)	11mo	$260,000	$182	72
16401 San Pablo Ave #413	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-10%)	11mo	$160,000	$111	65
16401 San Pablo Ave #429	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-15%)	3mo	$200,000	$146	65
16401 San Pablo Ave #338	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-13%)	8mo	$120,000	$86	63
16401 San Pablo Ave #131	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-15%)	22mo	$140,000	$102	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-4,561
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $49,271
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94806

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,256 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$684
• Net cashflow: $637

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2633 Rim Rd San Pablo, CA	3.0	2.0	1187	$3,500	$2.95	43d	1	0.12mi
2689 Limerick Rd San Pablo, CA	3.0	2.0	1170	$3,650	$3.12	43d	1	0.59mi
2275 Cypress Ave San Pablo, CA	3.0	2.0	1204	$3,095	$2.57	16d	1	0.77mi
3400 Richmond Pkwy San Pablo, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	906	$2,417	$2.67	1d	67	0.83mi
2933 Cornelius Dr San Pablo, CA	4.0	2.0	1302	$2,755	$2.12	11d	1	0.97mi
2601 Hilltop Dr San Pablo, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	963	$3,279	$3.40	1d	21	0.99mi
530 Sunnyview Dr Pinole, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$3,126	$3.17	1d	16	1.30mi
3614 Stoneglen S San Pablo, CA	2.0	2.0	1176	$2,395	$2.04	43d	1	1.31mi
1611 Summer Ln San Pablo, CA	4.0	3.5	2103	$4,050	$1.93	14d	1	1.40mi
3185 Garrity Way Richmond, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	967	$3,620	$3.74	1d	17	1.47mi
24 Park Ln El Sobrante, CA	2.0	1.5	1080	$3,200	$2.96	2d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 616-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $280,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,125
• − Management: −$3,125
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable income: $3,387
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$813
• After-tax cash flow: $6,830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Contra Costa Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632550
• Math proficiency: 24% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,837
• Composite: 30.04/100
• National rank: #11623
• State rank: #993 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Montalvin Manor

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #262
• US rank: #8705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montalvin Manor, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 62,546
• Household income: $86,034
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2830.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% Two or more races 16% Asian 16% Black 13% White 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 2% Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -665.89%
• Current HPI: 323.0082
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.06%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $280,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $555 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.