11808 Mckinley Dr · Warren, MI 48089

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,005 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1961 9,148 sqft lot $184/sqft · 66% above area Est $222k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming ranch home located in a quiet, established neighborhood in Warren. This well-maintained property offers comfortable single-level living with a functional layout, featuring spacious living areas filled with natural light. The home sits on a nicely sized lot with generous frontage, providing great curb appeal and outdoor potential. Enjoy a convenient location close to major roads, shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, making commuting and errands easy. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment opportunity, this home offers solid value and endless possibilities. Schedule your showing today and see all that this home has to offer! Please allow at least 2 hours' notice to schedule all showings, as the seller currently occupies the home.

Key facts

• Ranch home
• Natural light
• Generous frontage

Tags

• RANCH HOME
• SINGLE-LEVEL LIVING
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• GENEROUS FRONTAGE
• CURB APPEAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime D-.
• Warren Woods Public Schools (urban): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #336 of 540 in MI (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westwood Elementary School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #606 of 1,397 statewide, top 48%, 508 students, 76% FRL); Warren Woods Middle School (math 22% / reading 41%, grade F, #323 of 493 statewide, top 66%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Warren Woods Tower High School (math 26% / reading 50%, grade F, #331 of 713 statewide, top 46%, 1,047 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 43% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $185k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $155,659 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.46%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,123
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -16.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11927 Stamford Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	963 (-4%)	4mo	$200,000	$208	81
27278 Shackett Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	954 (-5%)	7mo	$217,000	$227	67
11038 Jim Pl	0.53mi	3/1.5	980 (-2%)	16mo	$218,500	$223	56
11478 Engleman Rd	0.62mi	3/1.0	936 (-7%)	7mo	$169,000	$181	54
11002 Dale Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,007 (+0%)	16mo	$185,000	$184	53
27045 Fairfield Dr	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,112 (+11%)	11mo	$282,000	$254	43
11246 Garbor Dr	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,145 (+14%)	10mo	$205,000	$179	41
26095 Burg Rd	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,115 (+11%)	22mo	$210,000	$188	41
25226 Roan Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0	914 (-9%)	12mo	$209,000	$229	40
25146 Wagner Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	906 (-10%)	16mo	$192,000	$212	36
25317 Palomino Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	928 (-8%)	23mo	$212,000	$228	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-36,781
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-40,889
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48089

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,557 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$289 /mo · $3,465/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,691

Max offer price $166,228

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2	-5% $-54	+0% $-106	+5% $-159	+10% $-211
Rent	-10% $-229	-5% $-168	+0% $-106	+5% $-45	+10% $17
Rate	-1.0pp $-13	-0.5pp $-59	base $-106	+0.5pp $-154	+1.0pp $-203

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11809 McKinley Dr Warren, MI	3.0	1.5	1212	$1,800	$1.49	19d	1	0.01mi
27239 Hoover Rd Warren, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	670	$945	$1.41	45d	1	0.34mi
13006 E 11 Mile Rd Unit 6 Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	850	$1,075	$1.26	16d	1	0.63mi
13006 E 11 Mile Rd Unit 6 Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	45d	1	0.63mi
8625 Dale Center Line, MI	3.0	1.5	1179	$1,796	$1.52	45d	1	0.73mi
25146 Wagner Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	906	$1,900	$2.10	25d	1	0.74mi
25108 Hoover Rd Warren, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	702	$1,324	$1.88	0d	61	0.74mi
11404 Warren Blvd Unit 102 Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	25d	1	0.75mi
28250 Hoover Rd Warren, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	912	$1,640	$1.80	0d	17	0.87mi
13250 De Mott Dr Warren, MI	3.0	1.5	1386	$1,900	$1.37	45d	1	0.90mi
13741 McKinley Ave Unit 1032320P Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	839	$4,983	$5.94	0d	1	1.02mi
28801 Imperial Dr Warren, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	887	$1,205	$1.36	18d	6	1.12mi
27107 Seyburn Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	23d	1	1.25mi
11130 Stephens Rd Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	750	$1,275	$1.70	0d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $185,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-04-02
    listed $195,000 Active 804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (810 chars)

    Welcome to this charming ranch home located in a quiet, established neighborhood in Warren. This well-maintained property offers comfortable single-level living with a functional layout, featuring spacious living areas filled with natural light. The home sits on a nicely sized lot with generous frontage, providing great curb appeal and outdoor potential. Enjoy a convenient location close to major roads, shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, making commuting and errands easy. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment opportunity, this home offers solid value and endless possibilities. Schedule your showing today and see all that this home has to offer! Please allow at least 2 hours’ notice to schedule all showings, as the seller currently occupies the home.

17. 2026-04-02
    listed $195,000 Active 810-char remark

    Show marketing remark (810 chars)

    Welcome to this charming ranch home located in a quiet, established neighborhood in Warren. This well-maintained property offers comfortable single-level living with a functional layout, featuring spacious living areas filled with natural light. The home sits on a nicely sized lot with generous frontage, providing great curb appeal and outdoor potential. Enjoy a convenient location close to major roads, shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, making commuting and errands easy. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment opportunity, this home offers solid value and endless possibilities. Schedule your showing today and see all that this home has to offer! Please allow at least 2 hours’ notice to schedule all showings, as the seller currently occupies the home.

18. 2019-03-05
    soldstatus $95,000
19. 2019-03-01
    soldstatus $95,000
20. 2019-03-01
    soldstatus $95,000 Closed
21. 2019-01-22
    status Pending
22. 2018-11-29
    price $105,000
23. 2018-11-29
    status Active
24. 2018-11-27
    status Pending
25. 2018-11-13
    price $110,000
26. 2018-10-21
    price $115,000
27. 2018-10-14
    price $120,000
28. 2018-10-12
    listed $105,000
29. 2018-10-12
    listed $110,000 Active
30. 2012-05-10
    soldstatus $56,700
31. 2009-04-10
    historical
32. 2009-04-08
    soldstatus $56,700
33. 2009-03-25
    listed $44,900
34. 2009-03-25
    listed $44,900
35. 2009-03-24
    historical
36. 2009-03-24
    historical
37. 2008-09-24
    listed $44,900
38. 2008-09-24
    listed $49,900
39. 2008-08-13
    historical
40. 2008-08-13
    historical
41. 2008-08-01
    listed $59,900
42. 2008-08-01
    listed $59,900
43. 2008-08-01
    historical
44. 2008-08-01
    historical
45. 2008-06-03
    listed $59,900
46. 2008-06-03
    listed $59,900
47. 2008-06-03
    historical
48. 2008-01-02
    listed $64,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,465 · $289/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,465 · $289/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$3,465
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,494
• − Management: −$1,494
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$4,444
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,067
• After-tax cash flow: $-209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren Woods Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2635220
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $49,013
• Composite: 27.29/100
• National rank: #7003
• State rank: #336 of 540 in MI

Livability — Warren

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #4491

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, MI
• County: Macomb County · 638,552 people
• City population: 114,937
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 31,853
• Household income: $52,366
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1754.0

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 31% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.46%
• Current HPI: 154.8325
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+202.3% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $195,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-02 Listed $195,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-01 Sold (MLS) $95,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-03-01 Sold (MLS) $95,000 REALCOMP
• 2019-01-22 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-11-29 Price Changed $105,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-11-29 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-11-27 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-11-13 Price Changed $110,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-10-21 Price Changed $115,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-10-14 Price Changed $120,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-10-12 Listed $110,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-10-12 Listed $105,000 REALCOMP
• 2012-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $56,700 Public Records
• 2009-04-10 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-04-08 Sold (MLS) $56,700 REALCOMP
• 2009-03-25 Listed $44,900 REALCOMP
• 2009-03-25 Listed $44,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-03-24 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-03-24 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2008-09-24 Listed $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-09-24 Listed $44,900 REALCOMP
• 2008-08-13 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2008-08-13 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-08-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2008-08-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-08-01 Listed $59,900 REALCOMP
• 2008-08-01 Listed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-06-03 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2008-06-03 Listed $59,900 REALCOMP
• 2008-06-03 Listed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-01-02 Listed $64,500 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,465 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.