312 Hunt Rd #312 · Baytown, TX 77521

$149,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · Townhouse public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2003 $125/sqft · 21% below area Est $190k · 21% under $459/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Exceptional opportunity to own a charming, low-maintenance home nestled within a secure gated community. This property boasts a desirable corner location, offering picturesque views of the courtyard greenspace, creating a serene atmosphere right at your doorstep. You’ll be greeted by a quaint covered front porch, complete w/ add'l storage. Inside is a spacious living room that seamlessly connects to the open kitchen area, perfect for entertaining & daily living. The kitchen is a true highlight, featuring stunning real wood cabinetry & a contemporary low eat-in bar, ensuring that conversations flow effortlessly while you craft culinary delights w/ stainless steel appliances

Key facts

• Gated community
• Covered front porch
• Real wood cabinetry

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• CORNER LOCATION
• COURTYARD GREENSPACE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• REAL WOOD CABINETRY
• SOAKING TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Curbs in community
• HOA & community: Midtown Management HOA; Monthly association fee; Association amenities include controlled access, gated entry, and grounds maintenance; HOA covers common areas, insurance, grounds maintenance, structure maintenance, sewer, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Carport present; Controlled entrance; Gated community access (may include attendant)
• Security: Security gate; Gated with attendant; Controlled access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story; Built in 2003; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Cement siding; Stone accents; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built: 2003
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Oven; Disposal; Refrigerator; Pantry; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Bedroom (first floor) — 12 x 13; Primary bedroom (first floor) — 13 x 16; Total rooms: 2
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Programmable thermostat; Energy-efficient HVAC
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with bath; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fan(s); Programmable thermostat; Ventilation (improved indoor air quality)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (22.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Alamo El (math 36% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 788 students, 79% FRL); Cedar Bayou J H (math 46% / reading 32%, grade F, #690 of 1,662 statewide, top 42%, 969 students, 81% FRL); High Point School (12 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 61% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 627 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,872 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.51%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,847
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -21.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
802 San Jacinto Cir	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,295 (+8%)	1mo	$185,000	$143	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-38,792
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-58,439
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 627
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,705 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$232 /mo · $2,786/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$459
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $-193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,949

Max offer price $115,872

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-108	-5% $-150	+0% $-193	+5% $-235	+10% $-277
Rent	-10% $-327	-5% $-260	+0% $-193	+5% $-125	+10% $-58
Rate	-1.0pp $-117	-0.5pp $-154	base $-193	+0.5pp $-231	+1.0pp $-271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
605 Hunt Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$2,012	$2.03	0d	110	0.28mi
5898 N Main St Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,780	$1.65	27d	1	0.87mi
7447 Eastpoint Blvd Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	934	$1,739	$1.86	0d	24	1.00mi
907 South Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,780	$1.65	46d	1	1.05mi
6316 John Martin Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,700	$1.55	46d	1	1.32mi
1200 W Cedar Bayou Lynchburg Rd Unit OXCC Baytown, TX	1.0	1.0	725	$1,135	$1.57	8d	1	1.39mi
1200 W Cedar Bayou Lynchburg Rd Baytown, TX	1.0	1.0	725	$1,135	$1.57	46d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $459 · $5,508/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $149,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    listed $149,900 Active 1020-char remark
16. 2014-05-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,786 · $232/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,786 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,786
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,637
• − Management: −$1,637
• − HOA: −$5,508
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$4,613
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,107
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2014-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,786 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.