2410 Lancaster Dr SE #331 · Salem, OR 97302

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1990 3,400 sqft lot $59/sqft · 31% below area Est $151k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Highly motivated seller! Come see this light and bright home located in the Sundial Community (55+). This large 1780 square foot home is located at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac which provides for more privacy and larger lot size than many other homes in this community. All the major components have just been updated. New carpets in the bedrooms and new waterproof luxury vinyl plank everywhere else. New roof. New exterior and interior paint. New cedar deck at the front. New water heater. New high efficiency heat pump with and electric furnace to stay warm in the winter and cool in the summer. The appliances and light fixtures are original but are easily negotiable as part of the purchase. This home boasts a large covered deck and mature landscaping. Large double car carport and attached shed.The Sundial amenities include a swimming pool and hot tub, pickleball court, billiards, gym, dog park, and community center. There are many community events that are taking place all the time. There is always something to do at Sundial. Located at the south end of Lancaster Dr provides easy access to shopping, restaurants, and i-5. Buyer must be approved by park management. The seller is very motivated and encourages any and all offers.

Key facts

• Large lot size
• New cedar deck
• New exterior paint

Tags

• LARGE LOT SIZE
• NEW CARPETS
• NEW ROOF
• NEW EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW CEDAR DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 242 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $105k implies a 204% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $98,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.63%
• DSCR: 2.94
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,165
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -30.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4348 Essex St	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (+6%)	2mo	$35,000	$19	74
3100 Turner Rd SE #421	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,746 (-2%)	0mo	$260,000	$149	64
2232 42nd Ave SE #807	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,890 (+6%)	20mo	$117,000	$62	63
4244 Eden St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,566 (-12%)	15mo	$92,500	$59	58
3296 Turner Rd SE	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,782 (0%)	18mo	$120,000	$67	52
3340 Turner Rd SE	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-9%)	3mo	$128,000	$79	48
3100 Turner (620) Rd SE	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-12%)	1mo	$200,000	$128	47
3100 Turner Rd SE #620	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-12%)	1mo	$200,000	$128	47
3210 Turner Rd SE	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,648 (-8%)	14mo	$80,000	$49	40
3100 Turner Rd SE #308	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (-9%)	13mo	$255,000	$157	38
3100 Turner Rd SE #101	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,931 (+8%)	22mo	$284,000	$147	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $48,478
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.06×
• Total profit: $119,510
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97302

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,570/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $1,069

Break-even live

Break-even rent $918

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1447 Connecticut St SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1258	$2,675	$2.13	43d	1	0.55mi
4776 Buffalo Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	1369	$2,150	$1.57	43d	1	1.02mi
3897 Meadowlawn Loop SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,958	$2.03	13d	26	1.26mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   status $105,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   status $105,000 Pending 78 DOM
4. 2026-05-17
   price $105,000 1244-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1244 chars)

   Highly motivated seller! Come see this light and bright home located in the Sundial Community (55+). This large 1780 square foot home is located at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac which provides for more privacy and larger lot size than many other homes in this community. All the major components have just been updated. New carpets in the bedrooms and new waterproof luxury vinyl plank everywhere else. New roof. New exterior and interior paint. New cedar deck at the front. New water heater. New high efficiency heat pump with and electric furnace to stay warm in the winter and cool in the summer. The appliances and light fixtures are original but are easily negotiable as part of the purchase. This home boasts a large covered deck and mature landscaping. Large double car carport and attached shed.The Sundial amenities include a swimming pool and hot tub, pickleball court, billiards, gym, dog park, and community center. There are many community events that are taking place all the time. There is always something to do at Sundial. Located at the south end of Lancaster Dr provides easy access to shopping, restaurants, and i-5. Buyer must be approved by park management. The seller is very motivated and encourages any and all offers.

5. 2026-05-12
   price $125,000 1244-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1244 chars)

   Highly motivated seller! Come see this light and bright home located in the Sundial Community (55+). This large 1780 square foot home is located at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac which provides for more privacy and larger lot size than many other homes in this community. All the major components have just been updated. New carpets in the bedrooms and new waterproof luxury vinyl plank everywhere else. New roof. New exterior and interior paint. New cedar deck at the front. New water heater. New high efficiency heat pump with and electric furnace to stay warm in the winter and cool in the summer. The appliances and light fixtures are original but are easily negotiable as part of the purchase. This home boasts a large covered deck and mature landscaping. Large double car carport and attached shed.The Sundial amenities include a swimming pool and hot tub, pickleball court, billiards, gym, dog park, and community center. There are many community events that are taking place all the time. There is always something to do at Sundial. Located at the south end of Lancaster Dr provides easy access to shopping, restaurants, and i-5. Buyer must be approved by park management. The seller is very motivated and encourages any and all offers.

6. 2026-04-30
   price $130,000 1244-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1244 chars)

   Highly motivated seller! Come see this light and bright home located in the Sundial Community (55+). This large 1780 square foot home is located at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac which provides for more privacy and larger lot size than many other homes in this community. All the major components have just been updated. New carpets in the bedrooms and new waterproof luxury vinyl plank everywhere else. New roof. New exterior and interior paint. New cedar deck at the front. New water heater. New high efficiency heat pump with and electric furnace to stay warm in the winter and cool in the summer. The appliances and light fixtures are original but are easily negotiable as part of the purchase. This home boasts a large covered deck and mature landscaping. Large double car carport and attached shed.The Sundial amenities include a swimming pool and hot tub, pickleball court, billiards, gym, dog park, and community center. There are many community events that are taking place all the time. There is always something to do at Sundial. Located at the south end of Lancaster Dr provides easy access to shopping, restaurants, and i-5. Buyer must be approved by park management. The seller is very motivated and encourages any and all offers.

7. 2026-03-19
   price $134,999 1244-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1244 chars)

   Highly motivated seller! Come see this light and bright home located in the Sundial Community (55+). This large 1780 square foot home is located at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac which provides for more privacy and larger lot size than many other homes in this community. All the major components have just been updated. New carpets in the bedrooms and new waterproof luxury vinyl plank everywhere else. New roof. New exterior and interior paint. New cedar deck at the front. New water heater. New high efficiency heat pump with and electric furnace to stay warm in the winter and cool in the summer. The appliances and light fixtures are original but are easily negotiable as part of the purchase. This home boasts a large covered deck and mature landscaping. Large double car carport and attached shed.The Sundial amenities include a swimming pool and hot tub, pickleball court, billiards, gym, dog park, and community center. There are many community events that are taking place all the time. There is always something to do at Sundial. Located at the south end of Lancaster Dr provides easy access to shopping, restaurants, and i-5. Buyer must be approved by park management. The seller is very motivated and encourages any and all offers.

8. 2026-03-12
   listed $150,000 Active 1244-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1244 chars)

   Highly motivated seller! Come see this light and bright home located in the Sundial Community (55+). This large 1780 square foot home is located at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac which provides for more privacy and larger lot size than many other homes in this community. All the major components have just been updated. New carpets in the bedrooms and new waterproof luxury vinyl plank everywhere else. New roof. New exterior and interior paint. New cedar deck at the front. New water heater. New high efficiency heat pump with and electric furnace to stay warm in the winter and cool in the summer. The appliances and light fixtures are original but are easily negotiable as part of the purchase. This home boasts a large covered deck and mature landscaping. Large double car carport and attached shed.The Sundial amenities include a swimming pool and hot tub, pickleball court, billiards, gym, dog park, and community center. There are many community events that are taking place all the time. There is always something to do at Sundial. Located at the south end of Lancaster Dr provides easy access to shopping, restaurants, and i-5. Buyer must be approved by park management. The seller is very motivated and encourages any and all offers.

9. 2010-09-03
   historical 425-char remark

   Show marketing remark (425 chars)

   One of the larger, newer homes in Sundial M. H. 55+ Community. Light, bright, move in ready! Very clean inside with 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and den/ office. Large kitchen with island and skylight, formal dining room with built in hutches and large covered patio. Space rent includes garbage, sewer, water and use of common areas (pool, weight room, clubhouse and more). Seller is very motivated. Listed below current market value.

10. 2010-09-02
    soldstatus $34,500 Sold 425-char remark

    Show marketing remark (425 chars)

    One of the larger, newer homes in Sundial M. H. 55+ Community. Light, bright, move in ready! Very clean inside with 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and den/ office. Large kitchen with island and skylight, formal dining room with built in hutches and large covered patio. Space rent includes garbage, sewer, water and use of common areas (pool, weight room, clubhouse and more). Seller is very motivated. Listed below current market value.

11. 2010-05-03
    listed $38,900 Active 425-char remark

    Show marketing remark (425 chars)

    One of the larger, newer homes in Sundial M. H. 55+ Community. Light, bright, move in ready! Very clean inside with 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and den/ office. Large kitchen with island and skylight, formal dining room with built in hutches and large covered patio. Space rent includes garbage, sewer, water and use of common areas (pool, weight room, clubhouse and more). Seller is very motivated. Listed below current market value.

12. 1990-07-24
    soldstatus $53,102

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,570 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,570 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,252
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,570
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,180
• − Management: −$2,180
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $11,861
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,847
• After-tax cash flow: $9,980/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 40,799
• Household income: $85,833
• Rent vs Own: 38.5% rent · 61.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1754.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Black 2% Pacific Islander 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -382.78%
• Current HPI: 296.7837
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+97.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $105,000 WVMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $125,000 WVMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $130,000 WVMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $134,999 WVMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $150,000 WVMLS
• 2010-09-03 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2010-09-02 Sold (MLS) $34,500 WVMLS
• 2010-05-03 Listed $38,900 WVMLS
• 1990-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $53,102 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,570 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.