10554 Collins Dr · Pymatuning Central, PA 16424

$135,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 53 Days on market

Built 2007 0.78 ac lot $161/sqft · 17% above area Est $115k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained 2 bedroom, 2 full bath single-wide home situated on a private . 75-acre lot in a convenient Pymatuning area location. Just a short distance from Espyville Marina, this property offers easy access to lake recreation while still providing a quiet, spacious setting. The home has been well cared for and comes fully furnished, making it a simple move-in ready option for a full-time residence or seasonal use. Inside, you’ll find a practical layout with two full bathrooms, offering added comfort and flexibility for guests or everyday living. Outside, the generous lot provides plenty of room to spread out, entertain, or enjoy the outdoors. Shed with fish cleaning sink offers g

Key facts

• Private lot
• Generous lot
• Practical layout

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• EASY ACCESS TO LAKE RECREATION
• FULLY FURNISHED
• PRACTICAL LAYOUT
• GENEROUS LOT
• SHED WITH FISH CLEANING SINK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: CRM; Lot size about 0.776 acres (185 x 181)

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Metal siding; Asphalt roof; Crawl space foundation; Built with 840 square feet
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced air heating
• Interior features: Fireplace (1); Storage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#1,181 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Conneaut SD (rural): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #241 of 539 in PA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $130,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.29%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,399
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: 16.99%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $72,415
• Equity at exit: $107,046

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.32×
• Total profit: $200,986
• Equity at exit: $216,909

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16424

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,345 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,201/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,094

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    listed $135,000 Active 904-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,201 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,667 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: +$466/yr (+$39/mo · 38.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,201
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,291
• − Management: −$1,291
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $189
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$45
• After-tax cash flow: $2,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conneaut SD
• NCES district ID: 4206590
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,946
• Composite: 40.06/100
• National rank: #3813
• State rank: #241 of 539 in PA

Livability — Pymatuning Central

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #1181
• US rank: #13811

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pymatuning Central, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,328

Population outlook (Crawford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,399 people
• By 2030: 77,977 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 70,659 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 63,841 · -21.6%
• By 2075: 50,198 · -38.3%
• By 2100: 37,898 · -53.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crawford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.2) · D 30.0% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -39.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.2 2020: R+37.2 2016: R+38.5 2012: R+19.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.48%
• Current HPI: 276.8388
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $135,000 GEBOR

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,201 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.