11421 Hanover Rd · Sunset Bay, NY 14062

$94,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,773 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1870 6.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover the potential of this 6.5 wooded acres property, featuring a cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home just waiting for your personal touch. With a vision, and TLC, you can transform this space into your dream retreat. The upstairs offers a blank canvas for your imagination—finish it off to create additional living space or a unique getaway. Embrace the tranquility of nature while making this house your own! Home to be sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• 6.5 acre lot
• Built 1870
• Listed 70 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $353 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,095 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Forestville Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #380 of 755 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($656 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $95k implies a 216% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $89,206 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.94%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $43,824
• Equity at exit: $53,197

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.27×
• Total profit: $113,373
• Equity at exit: $91,334

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14062

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,284 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,487/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $837

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-20
   listed $94,900 Active
4. 2001-07-20
   soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,487 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,545 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$59/yr (+$5/mo · 3.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,402
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,487
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,232
• − Management: −$1,232
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $2,900
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$696
• After-tax cash flow: $3,539/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forestville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611250
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,335
• Composite: 47.99/100
• National rank: #4800
• State rank: #380 of 755 in NY

Livability — Sunset Bay

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1095
• US rank: #22305

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,220

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Iranian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.90%
• Current HPI: 322.5177
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+216.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-23 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $94,900 WNYREIS
• 2001-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,487 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.