306 N Brush St · Lawler, IA 52154

$119,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 221 Days on market

Built 1953 0.58 ac lot $56/sqft · 23% below area Est $174k · 31% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This inviting home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, kitchen, living room & game room, all spread out across 2,100+ sq ft of comfortable living space. Nestled on a large . 58-acre lot, there's plenty of room to enjoy both indoor and outdoor living. The seller is including new living room flooring, giving you the perfect opportunity to add your own special touches and truly make this home your own. Don't miss this chance to create your dream space in a home that has room to grow and play!

Key facts

• 0.58 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1953

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#654 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Turkey Valley Community School District (rural): math 71% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #82 of 289 in IA (top 28%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Chickasaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $504 appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Chickasaw County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.09%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,703
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -30.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
306 N Brush St	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,402 (+12%)	0mo	$120,000	$50	80
203 S Depot St	0.28mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,080 (-3%)	2mo	$192,500	$93	72
201 N Brush St	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,336 (+9%)	13mo	$175,000	$75	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $7,982
• Equity at exit: $37,357

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $37,226
• Equity at exit: $46,988

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52154

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,249 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,984/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,068

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $210	-5% $176	+0% $142	+5% $109	+10% $75
Rent	-10% $44	-5% $93	+0% $142	+5% $192	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $203	-0.5pp $173	base $142	+0.5pp $111	+1.0pp $80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   This inviting home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, kitchen, living room & game room, all spread out across 2,100+ sq ft of comfortable living space. Nestled on a large . 58-acre lot, there's plenty of room to enjoy both indoor and outdoor living. The seller is including new living room flooring, giving you the perfect opportunity to add your own special touches and truly make this home your own. Don't miss this chance to create your dream space in a home that has room to grow and play!

2. 2026-05-02
   price $119,900 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   This inviting home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, kitchen, living room & game room, all spread out across 2,100+ sq ft of comfortable living space. Nestled on a large . 58-acre lot, there's plenty of room to enjoy both indoor and outdoor living. The seller is including new living room flooring, giving you the perfect opportunity to add your own special touches and truly make this home your own. Don't miss this chance to create your dream space in a home that has room to grow and play!

3. 2025-10-24
   price $135,000 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   This inviting home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, kitchen, living room & game room, all spread out across 2,100+ sq ft of comfortable living space. Nestled on a large . 58-acre lot, there's plenty of room to enjoy both indoor and outdoor living. The seller is including new living room flooring, giving you the perfect opportunity to add your own special touches and truly make this home your own. Don't miss this chance to create your dream space in a home that has room to grow and play!

4. 2025-09-24
   listed $142,000 Active 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   This inviting home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, kitchen, living room & game room, all spread out across 2,100+ sq ft of comfortable living space. Nestled on a large . 58-acre lot, there's plenty of room to enjoy both indoor and outdoor living. The seller is including new living room flooring, giving you the perfect opportunity to add your own special touches and truly make this home your own. Don't miss this chance to create your dream space in a home that has room to grow and play!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,984 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,984 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,984
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,199
• − Management: −$1,199
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$201
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$48
• After-tax cash flow: $1,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Turkey Valley Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1928110
• Math proficiency: 71% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $48,496
• Composite: 62.93/100
• National rank: #657
• State rank: #82 of 289 in IA

Livability — Lawler

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #654
• US rank: #15090

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawler, IA
• Population (ZIP): 638

Population outlook (Chickasaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,503 people
• By 2030: 11,187 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 10,569 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 9,997 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 8,819 · -23.3%
• By 2100: 7,126 · -38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Iranian 1% Hungarian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chickasaw

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.2) · D 30.8% · R 68.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -57.9pp toward R · 2008: 20.8pp · 2024: -37.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.2 2020: R+31.3 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+20.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.42%
• Current HPI: 114.3321
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-15.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $119,900 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $135,000 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-09-24 Listed $142,000 NEIRBR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,984 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.