433 Linden · Centralia, IL 62801

$69,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,158 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1933 6,400 sqft lot Est $110k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

needs some cosmetic work; nice large rooms; full basement for storage or addtional living area

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Fenced backyard
• 6,400 sq ft lot

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• FENCED BACKYARD
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 garage space, 1 total parking space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Single-story (main level living shown)
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Approximately 91–100 years old
• Exterior features: Level lot; Lot dimensions approximately 40 x 160

Interior

• Kitchen: Eating-area kitchen (main level) — vinyl flooring, about 13 x 10
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (main level) — carpet flooring, about 10 x 12; Second bedroom (main level) — carpet flooring, about 10 x 12; Small office (main level) — vinyl flooring, about 8 x 6
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms; Laminate in living and dining areas; Vinyl in kitchen and office; Tile in laundry
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Separate dining room; Unfinished basement with egress window
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room — tile flooring, about 9 x 10

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 5.9% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#481 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Centralia Hsd 200 (town): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #668 of 919 in IL (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Centralia High School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 863 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask is 288% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $70k implies a 230% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $61,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.59%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,010
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
617 E 4th St	0.40mi	2/1.0	1,118 (-4%)	0mo	$53,000	$47	75
935 E Mccord St	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,122 (-3%)	5mo	$84,000	$75	71
508 Marquis Ave	0.19mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,092 (-6%)	5mo	$143,000	$131	70
426 Marquis Ave	0.16mi	2/1.0	1,300 (+12%)	7mo	$105,000	$81	66
1740 Frazier Ave	0.40mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,074 (-7%)	3mo	$80,000	$74	62
1014 E Broadway St	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,030 (-11%)	6mo	$97,900	$95	56
23 Park Ln	0.53mi	2/1.0	1,025 (-12%)	2mo	$135,000	$132	54
525 Kristy Dr	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (-3%)	2mo	$125,000	$112	53
5 Ronnie	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,212 (+5%)	6mo	$158,000	$130	52
515 E Calumet St	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,040 (-10%)	4mo	$104,000	$100	51
875 Martin Luther King Jr Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,005 (-13%)	3mo	$75,000	$75	47
1415 Jonquil St St	0.71mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,280 (+10%)	5mo	$65,000	$51	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $12,188
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $41,023
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62801

• Home prices YoY: -13.9%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,140 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,642/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $674

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $408	-5% $388	+0% $368	+5% $349	+10% $329
Rent	-10% $278	-5% $323	+0% $368	+5% $413	+10% $459
Rate	-1.0pp $404	-0.5pp $386	base $368	+0.5pp $350	+1.0pp $332

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 178 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,900 Active 177 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 174 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,900 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,900 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,900 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-05-23
    price $79,500
16. 2026-04-16
    price $69,900
17. 2026-02-22
    price $74,900
18. 2026-01-06
    historical
19. 2025-12-17
    listed Active
20. 2008-09-04
    soldstatus $21,162 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    needs some cosmetic work; nice large rooms; full basement for storage or addtional living area

21. 2008-09-04
    soldstatus $21,162 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    needs some cosmetic work; nice large rooms; full basement for storage or addtional living area

22. 2008-05-31
    listed $18,000 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    needs some cosmetic work; nice large rooms; full basement for storage or addtional living area

23. 2008-05-31
    listed $18,000 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    needs some cosmetic work; nice large rooms; full basement for storage or addtional living area

24. 2000-03-20
    soldstatus $38,900
25. 1999-02-05
    listed $39,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,642 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,642 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,642
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,095
• − Management: −$1,095
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $3,555
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$853
• After-tax cash flow: $3,568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia Hsd 200
• NCES district ID: 1709300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,555
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #13470
• State rank: #668 of 919 in IL

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #9987

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, IL
• City population: 19,941
• Population (ZIP): 19,941

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,071 people
• By 2030: 34,598 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 31,754 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 28,912 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 22,527 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 16,455 · -54.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 11% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.5) · D 24.6% · R 74.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.5pp toward R · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: -49.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.5 2020: R+46.6 2016: R+44.9 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.12%
• Current HPI: 211.3835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+100.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $79,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $69,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $74,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-09-04 Sold (MLS) $21,162 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-09-04 Sold (MLS) $21,162 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-05-31 Listed $18,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-05-31 Listed $18,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-03-20 Sold (MLS) $38,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-02-05 Listed $39,700 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+16.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,642 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.