48 Island View Dr W · Noyack, NY 11963

$2,195,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,388 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2002 0.55 ac lot Est $2388k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

If you love your city life but crave the quiet, this is where the balance shifts. 48 Island View Drive West delivers the one thing city living cannot: space to breathe — without sacrificing design, culture or refinement. Five minutes from the water and 3 miles from Main Street, you're minutes to the restaurants, marinas, and historic charm of Sag Harbor Village — yet removed enough to feel distinctly peaceful. Welcome to restorative weekends and time away where your lifestyle expands. Come take a look at this cool contemporary with loads of light, heated pool, big decks in front and back, fireplace, four bedrooms, three and a half baths, three floors, 3,200 square feet of living

Key facts

• Big decks
• Fireplace
• 0.55 acre lot

Tags

• BIG DECKS
• FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.19M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($102k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($27k rent vs $2.19M).
• Recommended offer: $2.13M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 7.1% in Noyack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,084 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Sag Harbor Union Free School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #175 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sag Harbor Elementary School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 426 students, 22% FRL); Pierson Middle/High School (math 61% / reading 72%, grade B, #763 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 525 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 8% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $27,060/mo this rent would consume 254% of the median local household income ($128k/yr) (locally 95% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $217k of equity ($15k loan paydown + $202k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (9.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $615k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$348k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.13M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $830k; list at $2.19M implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,129,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.57%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $2,388,000
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
68 Long Beach Ln	0.39mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,376 (-0%)	9mo	$1,925,000	$810	66
4056 Noyac Rd	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,323 (-3%)	16mo	$2,200,000	$947	60
45 Harbor Watch Ct	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,100 (-12%)	0mo	$2,100,000	$1,000	50
95 Crescent St	0.65mi	4/2.0	2,292 (-4%)	24mo	$3,800,000	$1,658	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.19% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.86×
• Total profit: $1,756,917
• Equity at exit: $1,848,585

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.26×
• Total profit: $5,074,702
• Equity at exit: $3,856,954

Cash invested: $614,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11963

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $27,060 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,511
• Tax from tax record: −$465 /mo · $5,578/yr
• Insurance: −$915
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,683
• Net cashflow: $8,487

Break-even live

Break-even rent $16,317

Max offer price $2,195,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9,730	-5% $9,109	+0% $8,487	+5% $7,866	+10% $7,245
Rent	-10% $6,350	-5% $7,418	+0% $8,487	+5% $9,556	+10% $10,625
Rate	-1.0pp $9,593	-0.5pp $9,046	base $8,487	+0.5pp $7,919	+1.0pp $7,340

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $548,750
• Closing costs: $65,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
70 Ridge Rd W Sag Harbor, NY	3.0	3.0	2405	$65,000	$27.03	26d	1	0.31mi
4056 Noyack Rd Sag Harbor, NY	4.0	3.0	2323	$35,000	$15.07	24d	1	0.48mi
1557 Millstone Rd Sag Harbor, NY	4.0	4.5	3190	$40,000	$12.54	46d	1	1.36mi
1008 Middle Line Hwy Sag Harbor, NY	3.0	3.0	1904	$30,000	$15.76	0d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-05
   listed $2,195,000 Active
3. 2017-04-24
   soldstatus $830,000
4. 2001-05-10
   soldstatus $400,000
5. 1996-05-22
   soldstatus $222,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,578 · $465/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $21,337 · $1,778/mo
• Expected delta: +$15,759/yr (+$1,313/mo · 282.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $324,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$122,954
• − Property taxes: −$5,578
• − Insurance: −$10,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$25,978
• − Management: −$25,978
• − Depreciation: −$63,855
• Taxable income: $69,405
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16,657
• After-tax cash flow: $85,191/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sag Harbor Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3625380
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $81,547
• Composite: 55.69/100
• National rank: #1222
• State rank: #175 of 590 in NY

Livability — Noyack

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1084
• US rank: #21915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Noyack, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 8,114
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,390
• Household income: $127,746
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 95.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.19%
• Current HPI: 499.3304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.76%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+886.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Listed $2,195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $830,000 Public Records
• 2001-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $400,000 Public Records
• 1996-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $222,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $5,578 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.