Lot 14P Shady Pine Path · Lake Mills, WI 53551

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 1974 Fair condition $56/sqft · 81% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the largest Lot in the park! Open from April 15-October 15 yearly. The driveway has spaces for 2 cars as well as 2 golf carts. The inside is very spacious, well lit and inviting. Enjoy the large screened porch on rainy nights and the EV charger taking care of your ride. With 2 sheds and 2 LP tanks on the Lot, this home has plenty of storage and the power you need to get things done.

Key facts

• Built 1974
• Listed 65 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $800 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.8% vs local median 1.6% in Lake Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#68 in WI, #1,833 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Mills Area School District (town): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #152 of 342 in WI (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 145 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $51,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.36%
• DSCR: 3.77
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,525
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -81.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $42,082
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.65×
• Total profit: $102,371
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 53551

• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,494 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $800

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $55,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $55,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    listed $55,000 Active 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Welcome to the largest Lot in the park! Open from April 15-October 15 yearly. The driveway has spaces for 2 cars as well as 2 golf carts. The inside is very spacious, well lit and inviting. Enjoy the large screened porch on rainy nights and the EV charger taking care of your ride. With 2 sheds and 2 LP tanks on the Lot, this home has plenty of storage and the power you need to get things done.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,930
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,434
• − Management: −$1,434
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $9,280
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,227
• After-tax cash flow: $7,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in fair condition with some repairs and maintenance needed. Painting and updating the interior, along with landscaping and HVAC maintenance, can significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor paint — paint appears faded in some areas
• Minor landscaping — some vegetation around the home

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting and updating the interior — painting can improve the overall appearance and value
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — improving the landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and value
• Rental HVAC maintenance — a well-maintained HVAC system is important for tenant satisfaction and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
paint · paint appears faded in some areas	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · some vegetation around the home	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting and updating the interior — painting can improve the overall appearance and value ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — improving the landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — a well-maintained HVAC system is important for tenant satisfaction and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Mills Area School District
• NCES district ID: 5507710
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $62,848
• Composite: 34.48/100
• National rank: #5186
• State rank: #152 of 342 in WI

Livability — Lake Mills

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #68
• US rank: #1833

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Mills, WI
• City population: 9,485
• Population (ZIP): 9,485

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 86,617 people
• By 2030: 86,818 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 85,552 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 81,765 · -5.6%
• By 2075: 68,937 · -20.4%
• By 2100: 55,854 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.1% · R 57.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.8pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+16.2 2012: R+7.6 2008: D+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -185.97%
• Current HPI: 213.919
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $55,000 SCWMLS