415 E Dean St, Unit 2, Week 31 · Aspen, CO 81611

$170,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,790 sqft · Condo · 1 Days on market

Built 2005 $1016/mo HOA · 11% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ground floor three bedroom condominium. Convenient access to wine bar, fire pit, work-out room and pool. Walk to restaurants, shopping, gondola and everything Aspen has to offer. Hyatt Grand Aspen offers outstanding service and amenities. 2021 dates: Sat, August 7th to Sat, August 14th. 2022 dates: Sat, August 13th to Sat, August 20th.

Key facts

• Ski shop
• Heated outdoor pool
• Fire pit

Tags

• 2024 RENOVATIONS COMPLETED
• HEATED OUTDOOR POOL
• 2 HOT TUBS
• GYM
• FIRE PIT
• SKI SHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in G.A. resort condos (The Aspen Mountain Residences); Directions: Downtown Aspen, corner of Dean and Mill St.
• HOA & community: Has association; Annual association fee; Association amenities include management, front desk, locker ski storage and fitness center; Association fee covers contingency fund, insurance, management, sewer, unit heat, trash, snow removal and cable TV

Exterior

• Parking: Common parking; Has garage; Has carport
• Home design: Condominium
• Exterior features: Faces south; Not new construction

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Freezer; Oven; Refrigerator; Range; Microwave
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Gas fireplace; Property in excellent condition
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($63k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $170k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#142 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #18 of 86 in CO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 145 units permitted in Pitkin County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,474/mo this rent would consume 138% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pitkin County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $170k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 133.46%
• DSCR: 6.94
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.02×
• Total profit: $477,088
• Equity at exit: $153,149

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 27.64×
• Total profit: $1,268,214
• Equity at exit: $330,273

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81611

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Rents YoY: 22.1%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,474 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$1,016
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,990
• Net cashflow: $5,238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,844

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,356	-5% $5,297	+0% $5,238	+5% $5,180	+10% $5,121
Rent	-10% $4,490	-5% $4,864	+0% $5,238	+5% $5,613	+10% $5,987
Rate	-1.0pp $5,324	-0.5pp $5,282	base $5,238	+0.5pp $5,194	+1.0pp $5,149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,016 · $12,192/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $170,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥76°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $113,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$1,516
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,095
• − Management: −$9,095
• − HOA: −$12,192
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $64,774
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$15,546
• After-tax cash flow: $47,314/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta
• NCES district ID: 0802280
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $66,694
• Composite: 40.98/100
• National rank: #3595
• State rank: #18 of 86 in CO

Livability — Aspen

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #11780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aspen, CO
• County: Pitkin County · 9,068 people
• City population: 9,068
• Metro: Glenwood Springs, CO
• Population (ZIP): 9,068
• Household income: $82,664
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 566.0

Population outlook (Pitkin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,121 people
• By 2030: 21,110 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 22,707 · +12.9%
• By 2050: 24,105 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 27,933 · +38.8%
• By 2100: 30,018 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Salvadoran 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pitkin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.2) · D 71.0% · R 26.8% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: 48.8pp · 2024: 44.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.2 2020: D+51.9 2016: D+45.4 2012: D+37.9 2008: D+48.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.97%
• Current HPI: 370.9593
• Rent YoY: ▲ 22.07%
• Metro: Glenwood Springs, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+163.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $170,000 AGMLS
• 2021-09-08 Sold (MLS) $79,000 AGMLS
• 2019-07-11 Sold (MLS) $64,500 AGMLS