8B Flintlock Ln · Crestwood Village, NJ 08759

$89,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily · 87 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition $112/sqft · 12% above area Est $80k · 12% over $275/mo HOA · 13% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully renovated and move in ready! This charming unit with sunroom and garage offers an updated kitchen with quartz countertops and brand new appliances. The spacious bedroom includes a walk-in closet, and stylish vinyl plank flooring and fresh paint flow throughout the home. The bright front sunroom creates the perfect space for a home office, guest area, or cozy sitting room. Simply unpack and start enjoying your new home!

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1978
• Listed 86 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $741 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 5.6% in Crestwood Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#422 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.33%
• DSCR: 2.57
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,187
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: 12.11%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Columbus Blvd Unit C	0.30mi	2/1.0 (+1)	797 (-0%)	2mo	$118,000	$148	79
32 Columbus Blvd Unit A	0.23mi	1/1.0	782 (-2%)	8mo	$75,000	$96	78
81 A Franklin Ln	0.12mi	2/1.0 (+1)	797 (-0%)	15mo	$80,000	$100	76
24 Ironside Dr Unit B	0.30mi	2/1.0 (+1)	797 (-0%)	10mo	$75,000	$94	72
768A Hudson Pkwy	0.42mi	2/1.0 (+1)	797 (-0%)	13mo	$84,000	$105	64
105 E Constitution Blvd	0.56mi	1/1.0	850 (+6%)	1mo	$60,000	$71	62
12B Constitution Blvd	0.38mi	1/1.0	750 (-6%)	14mo	$73,000	$97	60
55 Westport Dr #71	0.49mi	2/1.0 (+1)	858 (+7%)	0mo	$170,000	$198	60
14 Betsy Ross Ln Unit A	0.41mi	2/1.0 (+1)	900 (+12%)	3mo	$74,000	$82	52
21 A Homestead	0.42mi	2/1.0 (+1)	912 (+14%)	3mo	$93,500	$103	50
8 Westport Dr #71	0.64mi	2/1.0 (+1)	858 (+7%)	7mo	$230,000	$268	47
8 Westport Dr Sec 71 Dr	0.64mi	2/1.0 (+1)	858 (+7%)	7mo	$230,000	$268	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $32,829
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $90,172
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$275
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $741

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,135

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
50 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,200	$1.96	1d	1	0.49mi
9A Juniper Ln Unit 50 Whiting, NJ	1.0	1.0	1009	$1,950	$1.93	43d	1	0.95mi
19B Maplewood Dr #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1109	$2,250	$2.03	16d	1	0.97mi
57D Milford Ave Unit 53 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	24d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $275 · $3,300/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $89,900 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    price $89,900 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Beautifully renovated and move in ready! This charming unit with sunroom and garage offers an updated kitchen with quartz countertops and brand new appliances. The spacious bedroom includes a walk-in closet, and stylish vinyl plank flooring and fresh paint flow throughout the home. The bright front sunroom creates the perfect space for a home office, guest area, or cozy sitting room. Simply unpack and start enjoying your new home!

15. 2026-04-04
    status Active 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Beautifully renovated and move in ready! This charming unit with sunroom and garage offers an updated kitchen with quartz countertops and brand new appliances. The spacious bedroom includes a walk-in closet, and stylish vinyl plank flooring and fresh paint flow throughout the home. The bright front sunroom creates the perfect space for a home office, guest area, or cozy sitting room. Simply unpack and start enjoying your new home!

16. 2026-03-20
    status Pending 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Beautifully renovated and move in ready! This charming unit with sunroom and garage offers an updated kitchen with quartz countertops and brand new appliances. The spacious bedroom includes a walk-in closet, and stylish vinyl plank flooring and fresh paint flow throughout the home. The bright front sunroom creates the perfect space for a home office, guest area, or cozy sitting room. Simply unpack and start enjoying your new home!

17. 2026-03-09
    listed $99,000 Active 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Beautifully renovated and move in ready! This charming unit with sunroom and garage offers an updated kitchen with quartz countertops and brand new appliances. The spacious bedroom includes a walk-in closet, and stylish vinyl plank flooring and fresh paint flow throughout the home. The bright front sunroom creates the perfect space for a home office, guest area, or cozy sitting room. Simply unpack and start enjoying your new home!

18. 2026-03-07
    historical $99,000 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Beautifully renovated and move in ready! This charming unit with sunroom and garage offers an updated kitchen with quartz countertops and brand new appliances. The spacious bedroom includes a walk-in closet, and stylish vinyl plank flooring and fresh paint flow throughout the home. The bright front sunroom creates the perfect space for a home office, guest area, or cozy sitting room. Simply unpack and start enjoying your new home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,990
• − Management: −$1,990
• − HOA: −$3,300
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $8,142
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,954
• After-tax cash flow: $6,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming single-family home is beautifully renovated and move-in ready, with updated kitchen and fresh paint throughout. It offers a bright sunroom and a spacious bedroom with a walk-in closet, making it an ideal space for both living and working.

Value-add opportunities

• Both install smart home devices — enhances convenience and energy efficiency
• Both install smart thermostat — improves energy efficiency and comfort
• Both install smart locks — enhances security and convenience

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both install smart home devices — enhances convenience and energy efficiency ↑
• Both install smart thermostat — improves energy efficiency and comfort ↑
• Both install smart locks — enhances security and convenience ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Crestwood Village

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #15006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crestwood Village, NJ
• City population: 34,290
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $89,900 MOMLS
• 2026-04-04 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2026-03-20 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $99,000 MOMLS
• 2026-03-07 Coming Soon $99,000 MOMLS