Plan 2929 Plan · Heartland, TX 75114

$341,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,929 sqft · SingleFamily · 400 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Extended kitchen island * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Large den * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Dedicated laundry room * Front porch * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Fishing dock * Swimming pools * Sports courts * Fitness center * Dog park

Key facts

• Front porch
• Smart thermostat
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• EXTENDED KITCHEN ISLAND
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• FRONT PORCH
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• ON-SITE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL

🏗️ New construction. The $341,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $417,237.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $342k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-766 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 787 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 400 days — a 12% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,977 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 400 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.87%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $417,237
• List price: $341,990
• Delta: -18.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3606 Kimberly Ct	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,816 (-4%)	3mo	$385,000	$137	72
3916 Melica Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0	2,625 (-10%)	1mo	$349,967	$133	72
3528 Equinox Dr	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,759 (-6%)	4mo	$410,000	$149	71
3350 Blazing Star Dr	0.22mi	4/3.5	2,663 (-9%)	2mo	$399,000	$150	67
4005 Allred Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,646 (-10%)	0mo	$399,500	$151	66
4146 Beale St	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,495 (-15%)	1mo	$389,260	$156	60
4133 Harrison St	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,599 (-11%)	4mo	$389,999	$150	60
3940 Allred Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,599 (-11%)	1mo	$402,205	$155	59
3914 Hometown Blvd	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,686 (-8%)	4mo	$375,070	$140	56
3922 Hometown Blvd	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,620 (-10%)	2mo	$499,990	$191	52
3251 Blossom Trl	0.60mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,686 (-8%)	4mo	$320,000	$119	46
3310 Tanseyleaf Dr	0.71mi	4/3.5	2,644 (-10%)	1mo	$319,000	$121	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-116,383
• Equity at exit: $62,211

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-164,035
• Equity at exit: $36,075

Cash invested: $116,826 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 787
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,680 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,188
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$522 /mo · $6,259/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $-766

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,650

Max offer price $306,336

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,309
• Closing costs: $12,517
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3011 Temple Gate Ct Crandall, TX	5.0	3.0	2730	$3,300	$1.21	1d	1	0.34mi
4101 Valley Mills Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.5	2278	$2,550	$1.12	1d	1	0.42mi
3004 Dakota Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,300	$1.19	3d	1	0.50mi
3750 Honey Daisy Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	3.5	2885	$2,750	$0.95	10d	1	0.50mi
3147 Blossom Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2177	$2,700	$1.24	43d	1	0.55mi
1968 Marble Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2051	$2,350	$1.15	15d	1	0.72mi
3916 Ford Dr Heartland, TX	4.0	3.0	2484	$2,600	$1.05	20d	1	0.76mi
4121 Gaillardia Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2135	$2,250	$1.05	18d	1	0.77mi
4005 Indian Paintbrush Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2866	$2,700	$0.94	12d	1	0.80mi
2237 Mustang Ghost Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1952	$2,040	$1.05	43d	1	0.89mi
4009 Bighorn Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2515	$2,499	$0.99	43d	1	1.03mi
2296 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	2315	$1,720	$0.74	6d	1	1.41mi
2048 Stagecoach Trl Heartland, TX	3.0	2.5	2284	$2,300	$1.01	1d	1	1.42mi
2048 Stagecoach Trl Unit NA Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2284	$2,295	$1.00	43d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $341,990 Active 400 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $341,990 Active 399 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $341,990 Active 398 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $341,990 Active 397 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $341,990 Active 395 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $341,990 Active 391 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $341,990 Active 390 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $341,990 Active 389 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $341,990 Active 386 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $341,990 Active 385 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $341,990 Active 384 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $341,990 Active 383 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $341,990 Active 382 DOM
14. 2026-04-10
    price $341,990 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    * Extended kitchen island * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Large den * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Dedicated laundry room * Front porch * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Fishing dock * Swimming pools * Sports courts * Fitness center * Dog park

15. 2026-03-06
    price $345,990 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    * Extended kitchen island * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Large den * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Dedicated laundry room * Front porch * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Fishing dock * Swimming pools * Sports courts * Fitness center * Dog park

16. 2026-01-30
    price $363,490 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    * Extended kitchen island * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Large den * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Dedicated laundry room * Front porch * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Fishing dock * Swimming pools * Sports courts * Fitness center * Dog park

17. 2025-11-06
    price $353,490 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    * Extended kitchen island * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Large den * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Dedicated laundry room * Front porch * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Fishing dock * Swimming pools * Sports courts * Fitness center * Dog park

18. 2025-05-14
    listed $343,490 Active 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    * Extended kitchen island * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Large den * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Dedicated laundry room * Front porch * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Fishing dock * Swimming pools * Sports courts * Fitness center * Dog park

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,157
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,372
• − Property taxes: −$6,259
• − Insurance: −$2,086
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,573
• − Management: −$2,573
• − Depreciation: −$12,138
• Taxable loss: −$16,842
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,042
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Heartland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heartland, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 33.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $341,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $345,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $363,490 Zillow
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $353,490 Zillow
• 2025-05-14 Listed $343,490 Zillow