122 Hemlock Ter · Northville, NY 12134

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1988 1.80 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Immaculate, 3R, 2BA home, with updates inside and out!!!! New plumbing, new kitchen & bathrooms, freshly painted, new laminate wood floors, new vinyl siding. Washer/dryer hookups. Walk-in closets. 2 Decks, large yard. Privacy. Nothing to do but move in!! You won't want to miss this one!! Excellent Condition

Key facts

• Private deck
• Open floor plan
• Newer shed

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE DECK
• NEWER SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 4 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-family residence; 1,152 living area; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Other roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Secluded lot; Level and sloped areas; Cleared and irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level); Bedroom (first level); Bedroom (first level)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on first level); Primary bathroom (first level); Full bathroom (first level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Cooling present (other type)
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Paddle fan(s); Vaulted ceilings; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Laundry located in bathroom on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (2.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.9% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Northville Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #500 of 755 in NY (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northville Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 175 students, 55% FRL); Northville High School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,060 of 1,100 statewide, top 97%, 256 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $250k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $245,000 (2.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.81%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $150,273
• Equity at exit: $225,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.17×
• Total profit: $431,464
• Equity at exit: $485,501

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12134

• Home prices YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$299 /mo · $3,586/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,169

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
521 Reed St Unit B Northville, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,450	$2.04	43d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    listed $249,900 Active
16. 2025-12-01
    historical
17. 2025-09-11
    price $275,000
18. 2025-07-30
    price $279,000
19. 2025-07-01
    price $299,900
20. 2025-05-21
    listed $315,000 Active
21. 2016-09-29
    soldstatus $106,000
22. 2016-09-23
    soldstatus $106,000 Closed (Final Sale) 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Immaculate, 3R, 2BA home, with updates inside and out!!!! New plumbing, new kitchen & bathrooms, freshly painted, new laminate wood floors, new vinyl siding. Washer/dryer hookups. Walk-in closets. 2 Decks, large yard. Privacy. Nothing to do but move in!! You won't want to miss this one!! Excellent Condition

23. 2016-08-12
    status Pend (Under Cntr) 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Immaculate, 3R, 2BA home, with updates inside and out!!!! New plumbing, new kitchen & bathrooms, freshly painted, new laminate wood floors, new vinyl siding. Washer/dryer hookups. Walk-in closets. 2 Decks, large yard. Privacy. Nothing to do but move in!! You won't want to miss this one!! Excellent Condition

24. 2016-07-26
    price $112,500 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Immaculate, 3R, 2BA home, with updates inside and out!!!! New plumbing, new kitchen & bathrooms, freshly painted, new laminate wood floors, new vinyl siding. Washer/dryer hookups. Walk-in closets. 2 Decks, large yard. Privacy. Nothing to do but move in!! You won't want to miss this one!! Excellent Condition

25. 2015-10-19
    price $124,900 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Immaculate, 3R, 2BA home, with updates inside and out!!!! New plumbing, new kitchen & bathrooms, freshly painted, new laminate wood floors, new vinyl siding. Washer/dryer hookups. Walk-in closets. 2 Decks, large yard. Privacy. Nothing to do but move in!! You won't want to miss this one!! Excellent Condition

26. 2015-10-19
    status Active 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Immaculate, 3R, 2BA home, with updates inside and out!!!! New plumbing, new kitchen & bathrooms, freshly painted, new laminate wood floors, new vinyl siding. Washer/dryer hookups. Walk-in closets. 2 Decks, large yard. Privacy. Nothing to do but move in!! You won't want to miss this one!! Excellent Condition

27. 2015-10-14
    historical 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Immaculate, 3R, 2BA home, with updates inside and out!!!! New plumbing, new kitchen & bathrooms, freshly painted, new laminate wood floors, new vinyl siding. Washer/dryer hookups. Walk-in closets. 2 Decks, large yard. Privacy. Nothing to do but move in!! You won't want to miss this one!! Excellent Condition

28. 2015-09-09
    listed $129,000 Active 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Immaculate, 3R, 2BA home, with updates inside and out!!!! New plumbing, new kitchen & bathrooms, freshly painted, new laminate wood floors, new vinyl siding. Washer/dryer hookups. Walk-in closets. 2 Decks, large yard. Privacy. Nothing to do but move in!! You won't want to miss this one!! Excellent Condition

29. 2014-06-26
    soldstatus $24,000
30. 2014-04-01
    historical
31. 2014-02-20
    listed $26,000
32. 2001-09-10
    soldstatus $39,600
33. 2001-07-27
    soldstatus $39,600
34. 2001-06-13
    historical
35. 2001-01-25
    listed $40,600
36. 1997-07-22
    soldstatus $39,500
37. 1997-02-25
    soldstatus $39,045

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,586 · $299/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,905 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: +$319/yr (+$27/mo · 8.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,586
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,352
• − Management: −$2,352
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$1,408
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$338
• After-tax cash flow: $3,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621300
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,564
• Composite: 43.1/100
• National rank: #6626
• State rank: #500 of 755 in NY

Livability — Northville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #759
• US rank: #14567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,093

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,132 people
• By 2030: 49,114 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 44,373 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 39,321 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 28,503 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 19,268 · -62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 6%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 32.1% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+31.4 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.95%
• Current HPI: 358.0334
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+540.0% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $249,900 Global MLS
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $275,000 Global MLS
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $279,000 Global MLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $299,900 Global MLS
• 2025-05-21 Listed $315,000 Global MLS
• 2016-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-23 Sold (MLS) $106,000 Global MLS
• 2016-08-12 Pending — Global MLS
• 2016-07-26 Price Changed $112,500 Global MLS
• 2015-10-19 Price Changed $124,900 Global MLS
• 2015-10-19 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2015-10-14 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2015-09-09 Listed $129,000 Global MLS
• 2014-06-26 Sold (MLS) $24,000 Global MLS
• 2014-04-01 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2014-02-20 Listed $26,000 Global MLS
• 2001-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $39,600 Public Records
• 2001-07-27 Sold (MLS) $39,600 Global MLS
• 2001-06-13 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2001-01-25 Listed $40,600 Global MLS
• 1997-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $39,500 Public Records
• 1997-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $39,045 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,586 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.