9249 Route 22 · Copake Lake, NY 12529

$257,000

3 bd · None ba · 2,304 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Built 1970 0.32 ac lot $112/sqft · 41% below area Est $439k · 41% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mixed Residential/Commercial building, with 3 rentable spaces. Current RR 30,540. One side of building has commercial reception area down and 1BR apartment above. Rental 1395/m. Other side is studio apartment up and storefront down. Can be rented to same party for commercial downstairs. Current rental is 795 + 550. Ideal for live/work. Building in excellent condition, roof less than 5 years old. Great location on Route 22 just South of intersection of routes 22 and 23 opposite Stewart's

Key facts

• 1br apartment
• Studio apartment
• Storefront

Tags

• 1BR APARTMENT
• STUDIO APARTMENT
• STOREFRONT
• ROOF LESS THAN 5 YEARS OLD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $257k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-516/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.4% in Copake Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#841 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Taconic Hills Elementary School (math 53% / reading 50%, grade C-, #1,041 of 2,108 statewide, top 50%, 562 students, 57% FRL); Taconic Hillsjunior/Senior High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 502 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $72k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $219,377 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.72%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $439,022
• List price: $257,000
• Delta: -41.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $137,264
• Equity at exit: $231,526

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.65×
• Total profit: $406,439
• Equity at exit: $499,294

Cash invested: $71,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12529

• Home prices YoY: 17.9%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,194 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,348
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$321 /mo · $3,855/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,248

Max offer price $250,779

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $135	-5% $46	+0% $-43	+5% $-132	+10% $-221
Rent	-10% $-216	-5% $-130	+0% $-43	+5% $44	+10% $130
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $22	base $-43	+0.5pp $-110	+1.0pp $-177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,250
• Closing costs: $7,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $257,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $257,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $257,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $257,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $257,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $257,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $259,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Active 49 DOM
17. 2026-04-11
    listed $259,000 Active 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Mixed Residential/Commercial building, with 3 rentable spaces. Current RR 30,540. One side of building has commercial reception area down and 1BR apartment above. Rental 1395/m. Other side is studio apartment up and storefront down. Can be rented to same party for commercial downstairs. Current rental is 795 + 550. Ideal for live/work. Building in excellent condition, roof less than 5 years old. Great location on Route 22 just South of intersection of routes 22 and 23 opposite Stewart's

18. 2026-01-01
    historical
19. 2025-10-29
    price $259,000
20. 2025-10-27
    price $259,000
21. 2025-09-28
    price $269,000
22. 2025-09-28
    price $269,000
23. 2025-09-16
    price $274,000
24. 2025-09-16
    price $274,000
25. 2025-08-30
    status Active
26. 2025-08-28
    listed $279,000 Active
27. 2025-08-10
    historical Active Under Contract
28. 2025-07-24
    status Pending
29. 2025-07-24
    historical
30. 2025-05-18
    price $279,000
31. 2025-04-14
    price $289,000
32. 2025-01-27
    listed $279,000 Active
33. 2025-01-27
    listed $299,000 Active
34. 2024-05-08
    listed $319,000
35. 2023-08-30
    listed $334,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,396
• − Property taxes: −$3,855
• − Insurance: −$1,285
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,106
• − Management: −$2,106
• − Depreciation: −$7,476
• Taxable loss: −$4,899
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,176
• After-tax cash flow: $660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Taconic Hills Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628620
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $57,329
• Composite: 45.16/100
• National rank: #2676
• State rank: #335 of 590 in NY

Livability — Copake Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #841
• US rank: #16329

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,345

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.61%
• Current HPI: 458.3911
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-22.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $259,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $259,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $259,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-09-28 Price Changed $269,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-28 Price Changed $269,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $274,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $274,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-08-30 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $279,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-10 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2025-07-24 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-24 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-18 Price Changed $279,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $289,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-27 Listed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-27 Listed $279,000 HVCRMLS
• 2024-05-08 Listed $319,000 HVCRMLS
• 2023-08-30 Listed $334,000 HVCRMLS