415 S 9th St · St. Joseph, MO 64501

$89,000

6 bd · None ba · 1,824 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 155 Days on market

Built 1930 1,824 sqft lot Est $125k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Key facts

• 1,824 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1930

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/?-bath multifamily listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.6% vs local median 4.7% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Joseph (urban): math 28% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #241 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,639/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 721% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $78,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.50%
• DSCR: 4.23
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,478
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: -29.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $81,484
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.80×
• Total profit: $194,498
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64501

• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,639 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $906/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $1,506

Break-even live

Break-even rent $733

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 38%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1	$2,640
Total (3 units)			$2,639

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,000 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $89,000 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $93,500 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $93,500 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $93,500 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $93,500 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $93,500 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-03-26
    price $93,500
17. 2026-02-07
    price $94,500
18. 2026-01-16
    listed $95,000 Active
19. 2025-12-26
    historical
20. 2025-12-21
    listed $95,000 Active
21. 2025-12-07
    historical
22. 2025-11-17
    price $95,000
23. 2025-09-21
    price $96,000
24. 2025-08-29
    price $97,000
25. 2025-06-23
    status Active
26. 2025-06-14
    historical Active Under Contract
27. 2025-06-06
    listed $98,000 Active
28. 2025-04-08
    soldstatus
29. 2024-10-09
    historical
30. 2024-05-14
    price $89,000
31. 2024-02-06
    listed $99,000 Active
32. 2023-11-15
    historical
33. 2023-08-29
    price $64,900
34. 2023-07-24
    price $69,900
35. 2023-07-19
    status Active
36. 2023-07-09
    status Pending
37. 2023-06-20
    listed $74,900 Active
38. 2023-06-05
    soldstatus
39. 2014-05-07
    soldstatus
40. 2004-03-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $906 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $906 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$906
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,533
• − Management: −$2,533
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $17,676
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,242
• After-tax cash flow: $13,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Joseph
• NCES district ID: 2927060
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,007
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #6853
• State rank: #241 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Joseph, MO
• County: Buchanan County · 32,150 people
• City population: 44,382
• Metro: St. Joseph, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 10,689
• Household income: $46,731
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,041 people
• By 2030: 88,401 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 86,220 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 83,603 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 76,750 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 67,623 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.0) · D 35.2% · R 63.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -28.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.0 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.20%
• Current HPI: 157.8706
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Joseph, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+24.8% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $93,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $94,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listed $95,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-26 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-21 Listed $95,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-07 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $95,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-21 Price Changed $96,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $97,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-23 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-14 Contingent — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-06 Listed $98,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-10-09 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-14 Price Changed $89,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-06 Listed $99,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-15 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-29 Price Changed $64,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-24 Price Changed $69,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-19 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-09 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-20 Listed $74,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $906 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.