14612 Wahlbergs Way · Elgin, TX 78621

$282,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,580 sqft · Land · 10 Days on market

Built 2026 4,599 sqft lot $179/sqft · at area comps Est $291k · at est. $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The beautiful Holly plan is ready for a quick move-in! This spacious home features three large bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, a roomy family room, and a fully-equipped, chef-inspired kitchen. The open-concept design of the main floor makes it ideal for entertaining, with a seamless flow between the family room, kitchen, and dining area. Whether you're hosting a gathering or enjoying a quiet evening, the layout ensures you’ll always be at the heart of the action, making lasting memories with loved ones.

Key facts

• 4,599 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee (includes common area maintenance); Community features: barbecue area, common grounds, community mailbox, dog park, playground, park, trails/paths, street lights, curbs, internet access

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Total of 4 parking spaces; Driveway; Concrete parking; Garage faces front; Garage door opener; Additional parking; Lighted parking
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Fiber optic available; Phone available; Underground utilities
• Home design: 2-story home; New construction by LGI Homes; Faces southeast; Slab foundation
• Construction: Composition/shingle roof; HardiPlank siding and masonry elements; Insulated attic/crawl hatchway(s); Blown-in insulation; Glass components; Concrete; Radiant barrier
• Exterior features: Private yard; Covered front porch; Fenced backyard with wood gate; Landscaped yard; Automatic in-ground sprinklers; Small shade trees; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Breakfast bar; Galley kitchen; Dining area; Dishwasher; Electric range (free-standing); Range hood; Microwave; Disposal; Plumbed for ice maker; Stainless steel appliances; Exhaust fan; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on second level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (heat pump, electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Entrance foyer; Pantry; Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Recessed lighting; Granite counters; Smart thermostat; Wired for data; High speed internet; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on upper level; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $283k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-214 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (29.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 813 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $200,125 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.24%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,400
• List price: $282,900
• Delta: -2.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $140,607
• Equity at exit: $254,859

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.37×
• Total profit: $425,149
• Equity at exit: $549,612

Cash invested: $79,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 813
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,001 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,484
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,905/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,272

Max offer price $245,062

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-54	-5% $-134	+0% $-214	+5% $-294	+10% $-374
Rent	-10% $-372	-5% $-293	+0% $-214	+5% $-135	+10% $-56
Rate	-1.0pp $-72	-0.5pp $-142	base $-214	+0.5pp $-287	+1.0pp $-362

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,725
• Closing costs: $8,487
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	12d	1	0.07mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	20d	1	0.08mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	4d	1	0.10mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	25d	1	0.16mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	45d	1	0.16mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	45d	1	0.22mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	25d	1	0.29mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	25d	1	0.30mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	45d	1	0.30mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,875	$1.23	0d	1	0.33mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,935	$1.08	0d	1	0.39mi
14521 Gurneys Eagle Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,895	$1.01	3d	1	0.40mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	25d	1	0.40mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	5d	1	0.40mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	19d	1	0.40mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	3d	1	0.41mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	0d	1	0.52mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,800	$1.18	0d	1	0.53mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,765	$1.14	0d	1	0.55mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	5d	1	0.65mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	0d	1	0.68mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	45d	1	0.87mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	0d	6	0.99mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	16d	1	1.05mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	45d	1	1.18mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	19d	1	1.18mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	14d	1	1.44mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	5d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $282,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $282,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $282,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $282,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $282,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $282,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $288,900 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $288,900 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $288,900 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $288,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $288,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $288,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $288,900 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $288,900 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $284,900 Active 518-char remark
16. 2026-04-07
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,905 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,177 · $431/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,272/yr (+$273/mo · 171.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,015
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,847
• − Property taxes: −$1,905
• − Insurance: −$1,414
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,921
• − Management: −$1,921
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$8,230
• Taxable loss: −$7,643
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,834
• After-tax cash flow: $-736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $282,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,905 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.