11 Grace St · Cuba, NY 14727

$40,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,327 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1900 0.37 ac lot $17/sqft · 79% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Huge house for little money. This is needs some major attention but the space is there. It is located on a neighborhood street in Cuba, NY This is a true colonial house with small 2nd story wondows, sometimes called eyebrow windows. The garage is in bad condion and might need to be torn down. The kitchen is huge and a big living room, plus a big bedroom om the first floor. If you want to restore a historic house, take a look at this one! More ictures will be coming. The taxes can be lowered after purchase

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Sewer connected; Public water available
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Metal roof; Stone foundation; Built previously (existing)
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 84 x 157 feet

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances negotiable; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Leaded glass windows; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Country-style kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $592 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.7% vs local median 3.1% in Cuba — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#309 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Cuba-Rushford Central School District (rural): math 44% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #350 of 590 in NY (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,400 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.39%
• DSCR: 4.09
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,968
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -78.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13 Prospect St	0.48mi	3/2.0	2,250 (-3%)	10mo	$179,000	$80	62
101 E Main St	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,524 (+8%)	19mo	$154,000	$61	53
136 South St	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,060 (-12%)	4mo	$270,000	$131	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $52,147
• Equity at exit: $28,160

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.6%
• Equity multiple: 12.02×
• Total profit: $123,423
• Equity at exit: $53,897

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14727

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $592

Break-even live

Break-even rent $420

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $620	-5% $606	+0% $592	+5% $578	+10% $564
Rent	-10% $500	-5% $546	+0% $592	+5% $638	+10% $685
Rate	-1.0pp $612	-0.5pp $602	base $592	+0.5pp $582	+1.0pp $571

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $40,000 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $40,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $40,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $40,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $40,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-05-14
   listed $40,000 Active 510-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,037
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$866
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,123
• − Management: −$1,123
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $6,920
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,661
• After-tax cash flow: $5,445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cuba-Rushford Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3632010
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,256
• Composite: 44.53/100
• National rank: #2792
• State rank: #350 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cuba

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #5131

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cuba, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,039

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 3% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.17%
• Current HPI: 298.31
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $40,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,078 · +36.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.