159 John Vanzandt Dr · Hopewell, NJ 08560

$597,190

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,185 sqft · Townhouse · 37 Days on market

Built 2026 $273/sqft · 16% below area Est $708k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This three-story townhome offers everything you need to live in comfort. A one-car garage occupies the first floor, while upstairs is the open living area, which features a family room, dining room and kitchen. On the third floor is a loft that is surrounded by three bedrooms, including the owner's suite with a private bathroom.

Key facts

• One car garage
• Kitchen
• Loft

Tags

• ONE CAR GARAGE
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• FAMILY ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• LOFT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 159 John Vanzandt Dr, Titusville, NJ 08560
• Financial info: List price $607,890

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage (1 parking space total)
• Home design: Single-family home (Arnold plan); Spec home inventory type
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,185

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new-construction plan named Arnold; Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $597k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-691 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $497k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $435k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $435k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.4% in Hopewell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#125 in NJ, #3,403 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hopewell Valley Regional School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #72 of 472 in NJ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 2% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bear Tavern Elementary School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #422 of 1,303 statewide, top 35%, 459 students, 3% FRL); Timberlane Middle School (math 40% / reading 69%, grade B-, #68 of 431 statewide, top 16%, 780 students, 3% FRL); Hopewell Valley Central High School (math 44% / reading 71%, grade C, #67 of 399 statewide, top 17%, 1,079 students, 5% FRL) — zoned schools at 4% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($579k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $434,962 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.96%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $707,890
• List price: $597,190
• Delta: -15.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
228 Cora Bergen Blvd	0.03mi	3/2.5	2,145 (-2%)	2mo	$589,990	$275	94
139 John Vanzandt Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	2,129 (-3%)	5mo	$648,340	$305	90
123 John Vanzandt Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	2,129 (-3%)	5mo	$610,000	$287	89
121 John Vanzandt Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	2,129 (-3%)	5mo	$658,740	$309	89
129 John Vanzandt Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	2,129 (-3%)	6mo	$619,000	$291	89
115 Lois Seruby Dr	0.25mi	3/3.5	2,382 (+9%)	2mo	$712,000	$299	68
121 Lois Seruby Dr	0.24mi	3/3.5	2,382 (+9%)	3mo	$724,840	$304	67
517 John Vanzandt Dr	0.29mi	3/3.5	2,382 (+9%)	1mo	$721,930	$303	67
519 John Vanzandt Dr	0.29mi	3/3.5	2,382 (+9%)	2mo	$724,990	$304	66
111 Lois Seruby Dr	0.26mi	3/3.5	2,382 (+9%)	4mo	$726,000	$305	65
101 Lois Seruby Dr	0.28mi	3/3.5	2,382 (+9%)	3mo	$724,840	$304	65
107 Lois Seruby Dr	0.27mi	3/3.5	2,382 (+9%)	5mo	$714,990	$300	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-140,705
• Equity at exit: $89,043

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-178,914
• Equity at exit: $51,634

Cash invested: $167,213 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08560

• Home prices YoY: -18.6%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,132
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$746 /mo · $8,958/yr
• Insurance: −$249
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$913
• Net cashflow: $-691

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,224

Max offer price $497,223

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-278	-5% $-484	+0% $-691	+5% $-897	+10% $-1,104
Rent	-10% $-1,034	-5% $-863	+0% $-691	+5% $-519	+10% $-347
Rate	-1.0pp $-390	-0.5pp $-539	base $-691	+0.5pp $-846	+1.0pp $-1,003

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,298
• Closing costs: $17,916
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 Ada Hightower Ave Pennington, NJ	4.0	3.5	2453	$4,900	$2.00	45d	1	1.33mi
135 Stoutsburg Blvd Hopewell Township, NJ	3.0	2.5	2129	$3,800	$1.78	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $597,190 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $597,190 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $597,190 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $597,190 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $599,990 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $599,990 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $599,990 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $599,990 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $599,990 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $599,990 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $599,690 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    price $599,690 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $602,640 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $602,640 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $602,640 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $602,640 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $638,440 Active 330-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,195
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,452
• − Property taxes: −$8,958
• − Insurance: −$2,986
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,176
• − Management: −$4,176
• − Depreciation: −$17,373
• Taxable loss: −$18,924
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,542
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hopewell Valley Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3407530
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $126,131
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1636
• State rank: #72 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Hopewell

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #3403

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,334

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Chinese 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.39%
• Current HPI: 246.241
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B