521 Orange Ave #24 · Chula Vista, CA 91911

$320,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Manufactured · 1 Days on market

Built 1968 Est $230k · 39% over $150/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

!!! LAND AND HOME YOU OWN !!! A TRUE GEM FOR THOSE SEEKING CHARACTER AND A PERMANENT PLACE TO CALL HOME. SITUATED ON ITS OWN LAND, THIS PROPERTY IS A RARE FIND IN CJULA VIATA IN A COMMUNITY FOR 55 PLUS. THIS IS NOT JUST A HOME, IT'S AN OPPORTUNITY TO OWN THE LAND YOUR HOME SITS ON HOA IS $105 PER MONTH

Key facts

• Rare find
• Own land
• 3 garage spots

Tags

• OWN LAND
• RARE FIND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $309k (3.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.7% in Chula Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#127 in CA, #4,345 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Sweetwater Union High (suburban): math 36% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 517 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,091/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 3751% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $199k; list at $320k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $309,132 (3.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.74%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $229,900
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
521 Orange Ave #34	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-2%)	2mo	$405,000	$375	90
521 Orange Ave #152	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (+2%)	14mo	$399,000	$356	74
501 Anita St. Spc 16	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,101 (+0%)	6mo	$200,000	$182	74
521 Orange Ave #150	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,046 (-5%)	9mo	$430,000	$411	73
600 Anita St #68	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (+7%)	3mo	$260,000	$221	66
501 Anita Spc 21	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,153 (+5%)	9mo	$210,000	$182	64
444 Anita St #55	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,022 (-7%)	11mo	$153,000	$150	60
501 Anita St #79	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,254 (+14%)	3mo	$232,000	$185	59
501 Anita #73	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-6%)	14mo	$150,000	$144	59
1148 Third Ave #10	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-4%)	2mo	$230,000	$218	59
1500 3rd Ave #76	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+9%)	11mo	$185,000	$154	54
1500 Third Ave #88	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,198 (+9%)	14mo	$249,900	$209	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-38,387
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-39,512
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91911

• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,091 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,519/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$649
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,643

Max offer price $320,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1250 Fifth Ave Chula Vista, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1045	$2,900	$2.78	1d	4	0.30mi
1311 Fourth Ave Chula Vista, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	824	$3,840	$4.66	1d	9	0.33mi
1225 Broadway Chula Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	837	$2,701	$3.23	1d	12	0.37mi
1240 Fourth Ave Chula Vista, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$4,588	$4.59	2d	1	0.41mi
307 Orange Ave Chula Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	662	$2,225	$3.36	1d	2	0.47mi
393 Montgomery St Unit 4 Chula Vista, CA	2.0	1.0	757	$2,095	$2.77	10d	1	0.49mi
495 Queen Anne Dr Unit 1 Chula Vista, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,800	$2.80	2d	1	0.51mi
317 Tremont St Unit 5 Chula Vista, CA	2.0	1.0	870	$2,295	$2.64	1d	1	0.59mi
240 Quintard St Chula Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	662	$2,400	$3.62	1d	4	0.70mi
1105 Fourth Ave Chula Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	848	$2,775	$3.27	1d	1	0.72mi
1051 Broadway Unit 13 Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	875	$2,325	$2.66	1d	1	0.81mi
1051 Broadway Unit 49 Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	770	$2,225	$2.89	1d	1	0.81mi
1067 Fourth Ave Chula Vista, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	702	$2,855	$4.06	1d	1	0.83mi
511 Wykes St Chula Vista, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,650	$2.65	2d	1	0.85mi
172 Palomar St Chula Vista, CA	3.0	1.5	1152	$3,400	$2.95	10d	1	0.87mi
1035 Fourth Ave Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	910	$2,495	$2.74	17d	2	0.91mi
615 Moss St Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$2,400	$3.00	1d	2	0.94mi
1038 Oaklawn Ave Chula Vista, CA	3.0	1.5	1044	$3,995	$3.83	1d	1	0.94mi
868 Elise St Unit B Chula Vista, CA	3.0	1.0	909	$2,400	$2.64	1d	1	0.95mi
574 Moss St Chula Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	749	$2,740	$3.66	1d	1	0.97mi
986 Broadway Unit 982-202 UNFURNISHED Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	1044	$3,095	$2.96	1d	1	0.99mi
986 Broadway Unit 982-313 Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	1020	$2,995	$2.94	14d	1	0.99mi
986 Broadway Unit 982-314 Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	1044	$3,295	$3.16	7d	1	0.99mi
986 Broadway Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	1044	$3,195	$3.06	3d	1	1.01mi
986 Broadway Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	1020	$3,295	$3.23	5d	1	1.01mi
128 Henry Ln Unit B Chula Vista, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,100	$2.10	1d	1	1.02mi
652 Moss St Chula Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	740	$2,395	$3.24	1d	3	1.04mi
588 Arizona St Unit ARIZ-02 Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$2,375	$2.79	1d	1	1.06mi
930 3rd Ave Chula Vista, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1099	$3,556	$3.23	1d	4	1.12mi
2750 Dahlia Ave San Diego, CA	4.0	2.0	1196	$3,995	$3.34	1d	1	1.36mi
1169 Hilltop Dr Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.0	1120	$4,000	$3.57	2d	1	1.39mi
71 E Palomar St Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.0	1388	$3,500	$2.52	14d	1	1.46mi
625 K St Chula Vista, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,050	$3.05	1d	1	1.47mi
768 Hollister St San Diego, CA	2.0	2.0	840	$2,300	$2.74	1d	1	1.48mi
310 K St Chula Vista, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	969	$3,603	$3.72	1d	3	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-01-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-07
   historical
3. 2026-01-07
   historical
4. 2026-01-07
   historical
5. 2026-01-07
   historical
6. 2026-01-05
   listed $320,000 Active
7. 2026-01-05
   listed $320,000 Active
8. 2026-01-05
   listed $320,000 Active
9. 2026-01-05
   listed $320,000 Active
10. 2025-12-01
    status Active
11. 2025-12-01
    price $349,000
12. 2025-11-18
    status Pending
13. 2025-11-18
    historical
14. 2025-10-19
    price $345,000
15. 2025-10-18
    price $340,000
16. 2025-08-15
    listed $360,000 Active
17. 2025-01-06
    listed $320,000 Active
18. 2020-11-05
    soldstatus $199,000 Closed Sale
19. 2020-11-05
    soldstatus $100,000
20. 2020-10-07
    status Pending Sale
21. 2020-09-27
    listed $199,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,519 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,432 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: +$913/yr (+$76/mo · 60.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥86°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$1,519
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,968
• − Management: −$2,968
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$992
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$238
• After-tax cash flow: $4,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sweetwater Union High
• NCES district ID: 0638640
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,051
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4158
• State rank: #187 of 517 in CA

Livability — Chula Vista

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #4345

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chula Vista, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 255,708
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 85,542
• Household income: $82,350
• Rent vs Own: 47.9% rent · 52.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 3751.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 75% Two or more races 34% White 12% Asian 7% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 71%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, South Korea, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 35% English-only · Spanish 59% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -669.25%
• Current HPI: 413.8287
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.56%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+60.1% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Pending — SDMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $320,000 SDMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $320,000 SDMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $320,000 SDMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $320,000 SDMLS
• 2025-12-01 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $349,000 SDMLS
• 2025-11-18 Pending — SDMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $345,000 SDMLS
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $340,000 SDMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $360,000 SDMLS
• 2025-01-06 Listed $320,000 SDMLS
• 2020-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-05 Sold (MLS) $199,000 CRMLS
• 2020-10-07 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-09-27 Listed $199,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,519 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.