1561 Poe Rd · Dundee, FL 33898

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 255 Days on market

Built 2025 1.10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3/2 mobile home on over acre. Covered decks, 3 storage buildings/workshops, MB has garden tub with separate shower dual vanity with walk in closets. Separate LR & GR, Kitchen has all appliances, island bar, a large pantry and lots of storage. Laundry roomhas mud sink with counter tops. All this in a fenced lot.

Key facts

• New black appliances
• Private 1 acre lot
• Open living area

Tags

• PRIVATE 1 ACRE LOT
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• WOOD CABINETRY
• NEW BLACK APPLIANCES
• INDOOR LAUNDRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 1.1 acres
• Financial info: No lease restrictions reported
• HOA & community: No homeowners association reported; No association approval required

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Residential manufactured home (double wide); One story; Faces southwest; New construction; Completed condition; Model: SPRINTER
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Living area approx. 1,456 (builder provided)
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-206 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Mclaughlin Academy of Excellence (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #437 of 571 statewide, top 77%, 542 students, 68% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 501 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 255 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $240k implies a 629% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,642 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 255 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-51,928
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-61,924
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33898

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 501
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,856 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,266/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,117

Max offer price $203,592

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-70	-5% $-138	+0% $-206	+5% $-273	+10% $-341
Rent	-10% $-352	-5% $-279	+0% $-206	+5% $-132	+10% $-59
Rate	-1.0pp $-85	-0.5pp $-145	base $-206	+0.5pp $-268	+1.0pp $-331

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6560 Timberlane Rd Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	25d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $239,900 Active 255 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 252 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 251 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 250 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 249 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 247 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,900 Active 244 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 243 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 242 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 241 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $239,900 Active 238 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 236 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 235 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 234 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    price $249,900
16. 2025-11-17
    price $254,000
17. 2025-10-09
    listed $259,000 Active
18. 2024-09-23
    historical
19. 2024-06-04
    listed $149,900 Active
20. 2014-03-05
    soldstatus $32,900 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    3/2 mobile home on over acre. Covered decks, 3 storage buildings/workshops, MB has garden tub with separate shower dual vanity with walk in closets. Separate LR & GR, Kitchen has all appliances, island bar, a large pantry and lots of storage. Laundry roomhas mud sink with counter tops. All this in a fenced lot.

21. 2014-02-25
    listed $32,900 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    3/2 mobile home on over acre. Covered decks, 3 storage buildings/workshops, MB has garden tub with separate shower dual vanity with walk in closets. Separate LR & GR, Kitchen has all appliances, island bar, a large pantry and lots of storage. Laundry roomhas mud sink with counter tops. All this in a fenced lot.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,266 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,266 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$2,266
• − Insurance: −$2,702
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,782
• − Management: −$1,782
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$6,673
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,601
• After-tax cash flow: $-865/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dundee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #638
• US rank: #12542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 5,431
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,527
• Household income: $57,224
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 148.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.62%
• Current HPI: 340.6056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+659.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $254,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-09 Listed $259,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-04 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-05 Sold (MLS) $32,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-25 Listed $32,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+24.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,266 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.