43960 E 200th St · Lake Los Angeles, CA 93535

$149,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 401 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 246 Days on market

Built 1953 5.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Are you a dreamer? An Investor? This property is for you!! This 5+ acre parcel borders the Saddleback Butte State Park! What an opportunity this could be for a business to house a few campers and their horses while visiting the state park? Or, you can enjoy the beautiful desert sunsets by remodeling the existing dwelling that still stands. You have power and water and room for whatever your heart desires! 5+ acres, with water, power, bordering a state park, unbelievable views, and a few dated dwellings. .. What a rare opportunity!!! !!!! Call me, buy a piece of your future!

Key facts

• Power and water
• Borders state park
• Unbelievable views

Tags

• 5 ACRE PARCEL
• BORDERS STATE PARK
• POWER AND WATER
• UNBELIEVABLE VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: LCA11; Property includes approximately 235,224 sq ft (approx. 5.4 acres); APN 3344-002-005; No ADU on the property; No sale contingencies listed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (buyer to verify)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer system; Propane service
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry and style details to be verified by buyer
• Construction: Wood construction; Roof condition to be verified by buyer; Foundation details to be verified by buyer
• Exterior features: RV access available; Horse facilities on the property; Scenic/view potential; Dirt street access

Interior

• Bathrooms: One 3/4 bathroom
• Interior features: No built-in appliances noted

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $402 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.6% in Lake Los Angeles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,206 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Wilsona Elementary (rural): math 15% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #1,238 of 1,400 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1169 active listings in the ZIP; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $150k implies a 1099% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.50%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,296
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $12,179
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93535

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1169
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,629 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $436/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,120

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 240 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 237 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 236 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 235 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 232 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 231 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 230 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 229 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 228 DOM
15. 2025-10-15
    listed $149,900 Active
16. 2025-08-03
    price $150,000
17. 1994-03-07
    soldstatus $12,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $436 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,139 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$703/yr (+$59/mo · 161.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,551
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$436
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,564
• − Management: −$1,564
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $2,480
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$595
• After-tax cash flow: $4,232/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilsona Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0642810
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,760
• Composite: 20.94/100
• National rank: #13717
• State rank: #1238 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lake Los Angeles

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #26106

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,409
• Household income: $70,360
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2494.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 25% Black 21% White 17% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.13%
• Current HPI: 449.4494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1099.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-15 Listed $149,900 AVMLS
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $150,000 AVMLS
• 1994-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $436 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.