11023 Mill Creek Way #706 · Fort Myers, FL 33913

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,385 sqft · Condo public records · 102 Days on market

Built 2004 $409/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your carefree southwest Florida lifestyle in Mill Creek at Colonial Country Club! This desirable first floor unit is perfect as a year-round residence or a winter getaway, and is being sold turnkey/fully-furnished! The open concept floor plan is excellent for entertaining, featuring 3 distinct dining areas including a breakfast nook, breakfast bar and a formal dining room. The Den makes for a perfect home office, TV room or an extra convertible guest bedroom. The split plan ensures both bedrooms plenty of privacy with two spacious baths, with the master ensuite bath featuring a walk-in closet. A large, screened lanai overlooks the wetlands/preserve area and the 2.3 mile preserve

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Screened lanai
• First floor unit

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR UNIT
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• SCREENED LANAI
• WETLANDS PRESERVE AREA
• PRESERVE WALKING TRAIL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $205k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 3.0% in Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#14 in FL, #383 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 811 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,528/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($110k/yr) (locally 276% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.41%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $20,334
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $62,241
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33913

• Home prices YoY: -10.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 811
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,528 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$403 /mo · $4,839/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$409
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$951
• Net cashflow: $1,065

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,180

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11029 Mill Creek Way #405 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1749	$2,500	$1.43	23d	1	0.09mi
10128 Colonial Country Club Blvd #602 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1530	$4,600	$3.01	23d	1	0.10mi
10130 Colonial Country Club Blvd #707 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$4,900	$4.39	23d	1	0.11mi
10112 Colonial Country Club Blvd #209 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1530	$5,000	$3.27	23d	1	0.13mi
11033 Mill Creek Way #202 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1379	$5,400	$3.92	23d	1	0.15mi
10121 Colonial Country Club Blvd #1802 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1530	$4,800	$3.14	3d	1	0.15mi
10020 Horse Creek Rd Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1692	$2,500	$1.48	23d	1	0.16mi
11012 Mill Creek Way #2205 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1749	$5,500	$3.14	23d	1	0.16mi
11011 Mill Creek Way #1307 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1379	$5,000	$3.63	23d	1	0.19mi
10111 Colonial Country Club Blvd #2308 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1309	$2,000	$1.53	11d	1	0.20mi
11075 Lancewood St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$2,300	$1.46	23d	1	0.29mi
11075 Lancewood St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$2,300	$1.46	15d	1	0.29mi
9667 Hemingway Ln Unit 3107 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1209	$4,900	$4.05	23d	1	0.32mi
9661 Hemingway Ln #3207 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$3,900	$3.00	3d	1	0.33mi
9639 Hemingway Ln #3505 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1234	$4,800	$3.89	23d	1	0.38mi
11041 Iron Horse Way Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1692	$4,000	$2.36	23d	1	0.40mi
10280 Crepe Jasmine Ln Unit 1546286P Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$4,526	$2.88	15d	1	0.43mi
9918 Horse Creek Rd Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,200	$1.46	23d	1	0.47mi
10602 Camarelle Cir Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1690	$5,500	$3.25	23d	1	0.52mi
9582 Hemingway Ln #3402 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1382	$5,500	$3.98	23d	1	0.58mi
9582 Hemingway Ln #3403 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1385	$5,400	$3.90	14d	1	0.58mi
9582 Hemingway Ln #3403 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1385	$5,400	$3.90	23d	1	0.58mi
10053 Majestic Ave Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1692	$7,400	$4.37	23d	1	0.60mi
10063 Majestic Ave Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1692	$7,100	$4.20	23d	1	0.61mi
10514 Bella Vista Dr Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1823	$6,500	$3.57	23d	1	0.65mi
10518 Avila Cir Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1466	$6,500	$4.43	3d	1	0.81mi
10518 Avila Cir Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1466	$6,500	$4.43	23d	1	0.81mi
11280 Reflection Isles Blvd Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1670	$3,500	$2.10	23d	1	0.83mi
10700 Palazzo Way #201 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1390	$5,000	$3.60	21d	1	0.83mi
10711 Palazzo Way Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1257	$3,900	$3.10	15d	2	0.86mi
10711 Palazzo Way Unit 203 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1257	$5,300	$4.22	21d	1	0.86mi
10018 Oakhurst Way Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,975	$1.97	23d	1	0.86mi
10535 Carolina Willow Dr Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1290	$2,300	$1.78	21d	1	0.90mi
10751 Palazzo Way #103 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1235	$5,000	$4.05	23d	1	0.91mi
10025 Oakhurst Way Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1504	$7,100	$4.72	23d	1	0.91mi
10791 Palazzo Way #301 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1390	$5,300	$3.81	23d	1	1.02mi
10510 Amiata Way #302 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1245	$4,900	$3.94	23d	1	1.03mi
11230 Suffield St Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1560	$8,500	$5.45	23d	1	1.08mi
10530 Amiata Way #103 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$2,200	$1.76	23d	1	1.09mi
10072 Oakhurst Way Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1511	$7,400	$4.90	23d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $409 · $4,908/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-22
   soldstatus $222,000 Sold
2. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-22
   status Pending With Contingencies
4. 2026-02-11
   price $225,000
5. 2026-01-10
   listed $250,000 Active
6. 2026-01-06
   historical $4,900
7. 2025-10-19
   price $4,900
8. 2025-10-09
   price $5,400
9. 2025-08-22
   listed $5,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,839 · $403/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,839 · $403/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$4,839
• − Insurance: −$6,244
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,347
• − Management: −$4,347
• − HOA: −$4,908
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $10,504
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,521
• After-tax cash flow: $10,256/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Myers

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #383

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Myers, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 278,598
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,538
• Household income: $110,373
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 276.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.45%
• Current HPI: 221.7115
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.37%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3936.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Sold (MLS) $222,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $225,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-10 Listed $250,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-06 Rental Removed $4,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $4,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $5,400 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-08-22 Listed for Rent $5,500 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,839 · -13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.