5528 Sound Ave · Northville, NY 11901

$2,200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,844 sqft · Land public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1800 22 ac lot $1193/sqft · 128% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A rare and remarkable opportunity to own 22 sprawling acres on highly sought-after Sound Avenue in Riverhead. This unique property features a historic homestead dating back to the 1800s, offering timeless character and endless potential. Surrounded by the natural beauty of the North Fork, the expansive land which extends to Sound Shore Road, provides the perfect setting for agricultural use, or an opportunity to own your own farm/winery. The existing home showcases classic charm with original details, ready to be restored, expanded, or reimagined to suit your vision. With wide open fields and prime frontage along Sound Avenue, this property delivers both privacy and convenience—just moments from local farms, wineries, beaches, and all that Riverhead and the North Fork have to offer. Whether you’re looking to create a legacy property, invest in land, or embrace the North Fork lifestyle, this is a truly exceptional offering with limitless possibilities.

Key facts

• 22.2 acre lot
• Built 1800
• Listed 73 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $2.20M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($100k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($27k rent vs $2.20M).
• Recommended offer: $2.07M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 2.9% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $15k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $66k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $616k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.07M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $349k; list at $2.20M implies a 531% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1800 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $2,067,999 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1800 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.26%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $965,216
• List price: $2,200,000
• Delta: 127.93%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $174,245
• Equity at exit: $328,027

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $832,493
• Equity at exit: $190,216

Cash invested: $616,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $27,007 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,537
• Tax from tax record: −$533 /mo · $6,402/yr
• Insurance: −$917
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,671
• Net cashflow: $8,348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $16,439

Max offer price $2,200,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9,593	-5% $8,971	+0% $8,348	+5% $7,725	+10% $7,103
Rent	-10% $6,215	-5% $7,281	+0% $8,348	+5% $9,415	+10% $10,482
Rate	-1.0pp $9,456	-0.5pp $8,908	base $8,348	+0.5pp $7,778	+1.0pp $7,198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $550,000
• Closing costs: $66,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Bay Run Riverhead, NY	4.0	3.5	1901	$25,000	$13.15	20d	1	1.04mi
120 Promenade Dr Aquebogue, NY	4.0	2.0	1825	$29,000	$15.89	45d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $2,200,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,200,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $2,200,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,500,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,500,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,500,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,500,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,500,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,500,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    price $2,500,000 977-char remark

    Show marketing remark (977 chars)

    A rare and remarkable opportunity to own 22 sprawling acres on highly sought-after Sound Avenue in Riverhead. This unique property features a historic homestead dating back to the 1800s, offering timeless character and endless potential. Surrounded by the natural beauty of the North Fork, the expansive land which extends to Sound Shore Road, provides the perfect setting for agricultural use, or an opportunity to own your own farm/winery. The existing home showcases classic charm with original details, ready to be restored, expanded, or reimagined to suit your vision. With wide open fields and prime frontage along Sound Avenue, this property delivers both privacy and convenience—just moments from local farms, wineries, beaches, and all that Riverhead and the North Fork have to offer. Whether you’re looking to create a legacy property, invest in land, or embrace the North Fork lifestyle, this is a truly exceptional offering with limitless possibilities.

17. 2026-04-09
    listed $3,250,000 Active 977-char remark

    Show marketing remark (977 chars)

    A rare and remarkable opportunity to own 22 sprawling acres on highly sought-after Sound Avenue in Riverhead. This unique property features a historic homestead dating back to the 1800s, offering timeless character and endless potential. Surrounded by the natural beauty of the North Fork, the expansive land which extends to Sound Shore Road, provides the perfect setting for agricultural use, or an opportunity to own your own farm/winery. The existing home showcases classic charm with original details, ready to be restored, expanded, or reimagined to suit your vision. With wide open fields and prime frontage along Sound Avenue, this property delivers both privacy and convenience—just moments from local farms, wineries, beaches, and all that Riverhead and the North Fork have to offer. Whether you’re looking to create a legacy property, invest in land, or embrace the North Fork lifestyle, this is a truly exceptional offering with limitless possibilities.

18. 2026-04-03
    historical $3,250,000 977-char remark

    Show marketing remark (977 chars)

    A rare and remarkable opportunity to own 22 sprawling acres on highly sought-after Sound Avenue in Riverhead. This unique property features a historic homestead dating back to the 1800s, offering timeless character and endless potential. Surrounded by the natural beauty of the North Fork, the expansive land which extends to Sound Shore Road, provides the perfect setting for agricultural use, or an opportunity to own your own farm/winery. The existing home showcases classic charm with original details, ready to be restored, expanded, or reimagined to suit your vision. With wide open fields and prime frontage along Sound Avenue, this property delivers both privacy and convenience—just moments from local farms, wineries, beaches, and all that Riverhead and the North Fork have to offer. Whether you’re looking to create a legacy property, invest in land, or embrace the North Fork lifestyle, this is a truly exceptional offering with limitless possibilities.

19. 2023-12-22
    soldstatus $348,670
20. 2014-11-25
    soldstatus $670,079

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,402 · $533/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $21,791 · $1,816/mo
• Expected delta: +$15,389/yr (+$1,282/mo · 240.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $324,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$123,234
• − Property taxes: −$6,402
• − Insurance: −$11,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$25,926
• − Management: −$25,926
• − Depreciation: −$64,000
• Taxable income: $67,591
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16,222
• After-tax cash flow: $83,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Northville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #759
• US rank: #14567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+273.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $2,500,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $3,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Coming Soon $3,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $348,670 Public Records
• 2014-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $670,079 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $6,402 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.