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The Rafael Plan 🏗️ New Construction
F Composite 24.87
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Schools +6.1/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Livability +3.5/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.8/5.0
  • 1% rule +0.6/10.0
  • Cash flow +0.4/30.0
  • DSCR +0.0/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$252,000

The Rafael Plan · Jensen Beach, FL 34957
2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,213 sqft · SingleFamily · 826 Days on market
Good condition $765/mo HOA · 34% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Palm Harbor "Rafael" plan. 2 bedroom, 2 bath + Den. 9' flat ceilings & Waterproof Vinyl plank flooring throughout!

Key facts

  • Flat ceilings
  • Listed 825 days

Tags

FLAT CEILINGS

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction. The $252,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $408,426.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $252k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (40.8% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (9.8% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $149k (40.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
  • Cap rate 1.0% vs local median 3.9% in Jensen Beach — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 70/100 on livability (#432 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
  • Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Jensen Beach Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 558 students, 45% FRL); Stuart Middle School (math 55% / reading 55%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 867 students, 49% FRL); Jensen Beach High School (math 53% / reading 71%, grade B-, #98 of 667 statewide, top 15%, 1,584 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 653 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 66% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 826 days — a 12% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $149,137 (40.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 826 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.56%
Cap rate
1.03%
Cash-on-cash
-18.80%
DSCR
0.16
GRM
15.0

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$408,426
List price
$252,000
Delta
-38.30%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
1701 NE 16th Dr 0.19mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,239 (+2%) 2mo $300,000 $242 81
1572 NE 22nd St 0.10mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,314 (+8%) 4mo $425,000 $323 73
1725 NE Darlich Ave 0.44mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,135 (-6%) 1mo $361,000 $318 63
1466 NE Silver Maple Way 0.51mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,296 (+7%) 1mo $370,000 $285 59
1780 NE 24th Ter 0.36mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,382 (+14%) 0mo $415,000 $300 55
2024 NE 24th St 0.46mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,386 (+14%) 0mo $404,300 $292 49
757 NE Maranta Terrado 0.65mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,330 (+10%) 2mo $380,000 $286 47
1669 NE Amy Ave 0.39mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,044 (-14%) 8mo $275,000 $263 47
1772 NE 23rd Dr 0.74mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,106 (-9%) 6mo $389,280 $352 41
1395 NE Waveland Ave E 0.75mi 2/1.0 1,092 (-10%) 7mo $320,000 $293 39
2346 NE Rustic Pl 0.70mi 2/1.0 1,073 (-12%) 9mo $264,000 $246 37
2859 NE Hickory Ridge Ave 0.67mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,392 (+15%) 8mo $405,000 $291 32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-57.4%
Equity multiple
-0.61×
Total profit
$-184,289
Equity at exit
$60,898
10-year hold
IRR
Equity multiple
-1.82×
Total profit
$-323,061
Equity at exit
$35,313

Cash invested: $114,359 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
21 active · 11 under contract
Months of supply
7.9 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$329,900 ($273/sqft)
Median days on market
138 d
This list price
29% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+23.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34957

Rents YoY
1.0%
Active inventory
653
Price-to-rent
9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,273 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$2,142
Tax est. 1.5%
$511 /mo · $6,126/yr
Insurance
$170
HOA
$765
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$477
Net cashflow
$-1,792

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,541
Max offer price $149,137
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-1,510 -5% $-1,651 +0% $-1,792 +5% $-1,933 +10% $-2,074
Rent -10% $-1,971 -5% $-1,882 +0% $-1,792 +5% $-1,702 +10% $-1,612
Rate -1.0pp $-1,586 -0.5pp $-1,688 base $-1,792 +0.5pp $-1,898 +1.0pp $-2,005

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$102,107
Closing costs
$12,253
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 38 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
1999 NE Collins Cir Unit 3-80 Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 2.0 1067 $1,775 $1.66 72d 1 0.32mi
2013 NE Collins Cir #50 Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 2.0 903 $1,800 $1.99 63d 1 0.36mi
1971 NE Collins Cir #20 Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 2.0 1037 $1,850 $1.78 15d 1 0.36mi
1585 NE Beacon Dr #1103 Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 2.0 961 $1,495 $1.56 72d 1 0.39mi
1622 NE Maureen Ct Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 1.0 780 $1,800 $2.31 63d 1 0.40mi
1617 NE Nautical Pl Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 2.0 961 $1,850 $1.93 63d 1 0.44mi
1775 NE Dixie Hwy Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 1.0 1000 $1,600 $1.60 15d 1 0.50mi
1431 NE 14th Ct Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 1.0 826 $1,850 $2.24 15d 1 0.51mi
1411 NE 14th Ct #13 Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 2.0 1100 $3,000 $2.73 72d 1 0.51mi
1550 NE 13th Ter Unit B16 Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 2.0 1272 $1,800 $1.42 72d 1 0.63mi
1500 NE 13th Ter Unit G6 Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 2.0 1272 $1,700 $1.34 15d 1 0.63mi
1600 NE Dixie Hwy Unit 10-203 Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 2.0 1072 $2,300 $2.15 72d 1 0.66mi
2563 NE Palm Ave Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 2.0 950 $2,400 $2.53 72d 1 0.69mi
2831 NE Savannah Rd Jensen Beach, FL 3.0 2.0 1248 $2,800 $2.24 15d 1 0.69mi
2132 NE Pelican Ter Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 1.5 992 $2,300 $2.32 15d 1 0.71mi
687 NE Maranta Terrado Jensen Beach, FL 3.0 2.0 1452 $2,995 $2.06 15d 1 0.72mi
2459 NE Hickory Ave Jensen Beach, FL 1.0 1.0 736 $1,700 $2.31 72d 1 0.73mi
2952 NE Savannah Rd Jensen Beach, FL 3.0 2.0 1056 $3,000 $2.84 72d 1 0.80mi
2680 NE Indian River Dr Unit 9 Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 1.0 800 $1,900 $2.38 15d 1 0.82mi
2506 NE Heron's Walk Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 1.0 1000 $4,800 $4.80 15d 1 0.85mi
598 NE Maranta Terrado Jensen Beach, FL 3.0 2.0 1472 $3,000 $2.04 15d 1 0.86mi
590 NE Lima Vias Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 2.0 1295 $3,300 $2.55 72d 1 0.88mi
2646 NE Pelican Way Jensen Beach, FL 1.0 1.0 1000 $2,400 $2.40 72d 1 0.88mi
2632 NE Pelican Way Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 1.0 1000 $4,800 $4.80 72d 1 0.88mi
3111 NE Savannah Rd Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 1.0 1085 $1,995 $1.84 63d 1 0.89mi
3111 NE Savannah Rd Unit 3111 Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 1.0 1085 $1,995 $1.84 15d 1 0.89mi
3121 NE Savannah Rd Unit 3121 Jensen Beach, FL 3.0 1.0 1085 $2,095 $1.93 72d 1 0.90mi
3123 NE Savannah Rd Unit 3123 Jensen Beach, FL 3.0 2.0 1100 $2,195 $2.00 72d 1 0.91mi
297 NE Coastal DR #297 Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 2.0 1000 $3,000 $3.00 72d 1 0.94mi
1903 NE Media Ave Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 2.0 1324 $2,400 $1.81 72d 1 0.95mi
1001 NE Baker Rd Stuart, FL 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 988 $2,344 $2.37 15d 35 0.98mi
1097 NE Kubin Ave Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 1.5 952 $2,450 $2.57 72d 1 1.00mi
3450 NE Linda Dr Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 1.0 1240 $2,500 $2.02 72d 1 1.16mi
25 NE 17th St Stuart, FL 3.0 2.0 990 $2,000 $2.02 72d 1 1.29mi
1315 NE Flora Pl Jensen Beach, FL 3.0 2.0 1400 $3,500 $2.50 15d 1 1.32mi
3663 NE Barbara Dr Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 1.0 991 $2,450 $2.47 72d 1 1.35mi
64 NE Acacia Trl Jensen Beach, FL 2.0 2.0 1000 $3,000 $3.00 72d 1 1.47mi
1398 NW Cavendish Ct Stuart, FL 2.0–3.0 2.5 1242 $2,393 $1.93 70d 11 1.49mi

HOA detail $765/mo · $9,180/yr

Likely covers
water

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $252,000 Active 826 DOM
  2. 2026-08-07
    days on market $252,000 Active 825 DOM
  3. 2026-08-06
    days on market $252,000 Active 824 DOM
  4. 2026-08-05
    days on market $252,000 Active 823 DOM
  5. 2026-08-04
    days on market $252,000 Active 822 DOM
  6. 2026-08-03
    days on market $252,000 Active 821 DOM
  7. 2026-07-31
    days on market $252,000 Active 818 DOM
  8. 2026-07-29
    days on market $252,000 Active 816 DOM
  9. 2026-07-27
    days on market $252,000 Active 814 DOM
  10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $252,000 Active 812 DOM
  11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $252,000 Active 810 DOM
  12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $252,000 Active 809 DOM
  13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $252,000 Active 808 DOM
  14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $252,000 Active 805 DOM
  15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $252,000 Active 803 DOM
  16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $252,000 Active 802 DOM
  17. 2026-07-14
    days on market $252,000 Active 801 DOM
  18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $252,000 Active 800 DOM
  19. 2026-07-12
    days on market $252,000 Active 799 DOM
  20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $252,000 Active 798 DOM
  21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $252,000 Active 797 DOM
  22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $252,000 Active 796 DOM
  23. 2026-07-08
    days on market $252,000 Active 795 DOM
  24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $252,000 Active 794 DOM
  25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $252,000 Active 793 DOM
  26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $252,000 Active 792 DOM
  27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $252,000 Active 791 DOM
  28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $252,000 Active 790 DOM
  29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $252,000 Active 789 DOM
  30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $252,000 Active 788 DOM
  31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $252,000 Active 787 DOM
  32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $252,000 Active 786 DOM
  33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $252,000 Active 785 DOM
  34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $252,000 Active 784 DOM
  35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $252,000 Active 783 DOM
  36. 2026-06-25
    days on market $252,000 Active 781 DOM
  37. 2026-06-23
    days on market $252,000 Active 779 DOM
  38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $252,000 Active 778 DOM
  39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $252,000 Active 775 DOM
  40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $252,000 Active 774 DOM
  41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $252,000 Active 773 DOM
  42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $252,000 Active 772 DOM
  43. 2026-06-14
    days on market $252,000 Active 770 DOM
  44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $252,000 Active 769 DOM
  45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $252,000 Active 767 DOM
  46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $252,000 Active 766 DOM
  47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $252,000 Active 765 DOM
  48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $252,000 Active 764 DOM
  49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $252,000 Active 760 DOM
  50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $252,000 Active 759 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$27,276
− Mortgage interest
−$22,878
− Property taxes
−$6,126
− Insurance
−$2,042
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,182
− Management
−$2,182
− HOA
−$9,180
− Depreciation
−$11,881
Taxable loss
−$29,197
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$7,007
After-tax cash flow
$-14,495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,065–$18,195 screening

This single-family home in Jensen Beach, FL, is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has potential for further value increases through cosmetic updates and improvements to the landscaping and interior.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
  • Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve the home's appearance and value.
  • Rental HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system is crucial for rental properties.
  • Both Window treatments — Window treatments can improve energy efficiency and add to the home's curb appeal.
  • Both Flooring replacement — If the flooring is old or damaged, replacing it can significantly increase the home's value.
  • Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating these areas can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers or renters.

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 61/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jensen Beach Elementary School B+ FL #450/2,144 Nat'l #4,366/41,679 Middle Stuart Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Jensen Beach High School B- FL #98/667 Nat'l #3,220/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Martin
NCES district ID
1201290
Math proficiency
52% ▼ -14.00%
Reading proficiency
53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income
$52,482
Composite
45.1/100
National rank
#2690
State rank
#24 of 73 in FL
B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Jensen Beach

Score
70/100
State rank
#432
US rank
#7719

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Jensen Beach, FL
County
Martin County · 172,383 people
City population
23,462
Metro
Port St. Lucie, FL
Population (ZIP)
23,462
Household income
$70,403
Rent vs Own
23.8% rent · 76.2% own
Severe rent burden
13% of renters

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
172,383 people
By 2030
180,192 · +4.5%
By 2040
194,114 · +12.6%
By 2050
204,992 · +18.9%
By 2075
229,641 · +33.2%
By 2100
232,146 · +34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (85%)
Race & ethnicity
White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
Common ancestry
Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
Foreign-born
10% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home
90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

2024 margin
Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.1% · R 65.2%
2008→2024 swing
-17.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -31.1pp
All cycles
2024: R+31.1 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.9 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

1 event — show timeline
  • 2024-05-04 Listed $252,000 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…