778 Big Cave Rd · Mount Vernon, KY 40460

$44,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,696 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 266 Days on market

Built 1981 5.00 ac lot ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PROPERTY IS NOW AT AUCTION. SEE PRIVATE REMARKS OR CALL LISTING AGENT!!! Large home with large deck and lot! This lively home that sits on 5 acres has plenty of room to spread out an and a large deck to relax on. Country living at its finest!!!! Don't let this one pass you by!!!! Come see TODAY!!!

Key facts

• Large deck
• 5 acres
• 5 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE DECK
• 5 ACRES

🔨 Auction listing. The $44,900 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $164,319 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.9% in Mount Vernon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#321 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Rockcastle County (rural): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #102 of 165 in KY (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockcastle County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.24%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,319
• List price: $44,900
• Delta: -72.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
383 E Halcomb Rd	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,504 (-11%)	1mo	$44,000	$29	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-34,601
• Equity at exit: $24,501

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-40,559
• Equity at exit: $14,207

Cash invested: $46,009 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40460

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,126 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$862
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,005/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $-124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,283

Max offer price $142,361

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,080
• Closing costs: $4,930
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $44,900 Pending 266 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $44,900 Active 265 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $44,900 Active 264 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $44,900 Active 263 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $44,900 Active 262 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $44,900 Active 261 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $44,900 Active 260 DOM
8. 2026-04-20
   price $59,900 298-char remark

   Show marketing remark (298 chars)

   PROPERTY IS NOW AT AUCTION. SEE PRIVATE REMARKS OR CALL LISTING AGENT!!! Large home with large deck and lot! This lively home that sits on 5 acres has plenty of room to spread out an and a large deck to relax on. Country living at its finest!!!! Don't let this one pass you by!!!! Come see TODAY!!!

9. 2026-03-19
   price $74,900 298-char remark

   Show marketing remark (298 chars)

   PROPERTY IS NOW AT AUCTION. SEE PRIVATE REMARKS OR CALL LISTING AGENT!!! Large home with large deck and lot! This lively home that sits on 5 acres has plenty of room to spread out an and a large deck to relax on. Country living at its finest!!!! Don't let this one pass you by!!!! Come see TODAY!!!

10. 2026-02-20
    price $89,900 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    PROPERTY IS NOW AT AUCTION. SEE PRIVATE REMARKS OR CALL LISTING AGENT!!! Large home with large deck and lot! This lively home that sits on 5 acres has plenty of room to spread out an and a large deck to relax on. Country living at its finest!!!! Don't let this one pass you by!!!! Come see TODAY!!!

11. 2026-01-14
    price $99,900 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    PROPERTY IS NOW AT AUCTION. SEE PRIVATE REMARKS OR CALL LISTING AGENT!!! Large home with large deck and lot! This lively home that sits on 5 acres has plenty of room to spread out an and a large deck to relax on. Country living at its finest!!!! Don't let this one pass you by!!!! Come see TODAY!!!

12. 2025-12-15
    price $114,900 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    PROPERTY IS NOW AT AUCTION. SEE PRIVATE REMARKS OR CALL LISTING AGENT!!! Large home with large deck and lot! This lively home that sits on 5 acres has plenty of room to spread out an and a large deck to relax on. Country living at its finest!!!! Don't let this one pass you by!!!! Come see TODAY!!!

13. 2025-11-13
    price $129,900 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    PROPERTY IS NOW AT AUCTION. SEE PRIVATE REMARKS OR CALL LISTING AGENT!!! Large home with large deck and lot! This lively home that sits on 5 acres has plenty of room to spread out an and a large deck to relax on. Country living at its finest!!!! Don't let this one pass you by!!!! Come see TODAY!!!

14. 2025-10-13
    price $139,900 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    PROPERTY IS NOW AT AUCTION. SEE PRIVATE REMARKS OR CALL LISTING AGENT!!! Large home with large deck and lot! This lively home that sits on 5 acres has plenty of room to spread out an and a large deck to relax on. Country living at its finest!!!! Don't let this one pass you by!!!! Come see TODAY!!!

15. 2025-09-11
    listed $144,900 Active 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    PROPERTY IS NOW AT AUCTION. SEE PRIVATE REMARKS OR CALL LISTING AGENT!!! Large home with large deck and lot! This lively home that sits on 5 acres has plenty of room to spread out an and a large deck to relax on. Country living at its finest!!!! Don't let this one pass you by!!!! Come see TODAY!!!

16. 2004-04-01
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,005 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,005 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,513
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,204
• − Property taxes: −$1,005
• − Insurance: −$822
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,081
• − Management: −$1,081
• − Depreciation: −$4,780
• Taxable loss: −$4,460
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,070
• After-tax cash flow: $-421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockcastle County
• NCES district ID: 2105070
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $30,809
• Composite: 25.55/100
• National rank: #7430
• State rank: #102 of 165 in KY

Livability — Mount Vernon

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #321
• US rank: #15406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,269

Population outlook (Rockcastle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,003 people
• By 2030: 16,913 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 16,504 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 15,697 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 13,724 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 11,369 · -33.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Greek 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockcastle

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.1) · D 12.8% · R 85.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -73.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.1 2020: R+69.9 2016: R+70.2 2012: R+63.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.40%
• Current HPI: 207.2483
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-40.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $59,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $74,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $89,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $99,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $114,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $129,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $139,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listed $144,900 ImagineMLS
• 2004-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,005 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.