1969 Michigan Dr · Poinciana, FL 34759

$370,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,601 sqft · Land · 127 Days on market

Built 2025 10,014 sqft lot $81/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Hayden is an amazing all concrete block construction single-family home features 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms optimizing living space with an open concept layout. The kitchen overlooks the dining area and great room, while having a view to the covered lanai outside. Ample windows and a set of sliding glass doors allow lighting into the living area. The well-appointed kitchen features an island with bar seating, beautiful quartz countertops and stainless-steel appliances, making entertaining a breeze. The first floor also features a flex room that provides an area for work or play, a bedroom, and full bathroom. As we head up to the second floor, we are greeted with bedroom one that feature

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Quartz countertops
• Open layout

Tags

• ONE STORY CALI FLOORPLAN
• OPEN LAYOUT
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK IN PANTRY
• SPACIOUS ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Leland Management - Angel; HOA fees required: $81.62 per month ($979.44 annually); Deed restrictions; Street lights; Cats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20x20)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Underground utilities; Water available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; New construction - completed; Two stories; Southwest facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder: D.R. Horton (Hayden model); Projected completion date: March 30, 2026
• Exterior features: Sidewalks; Sliding doors; Metered sprinkler/irrigation system; Irrigation equipment; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms (two-level home)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen and family room combined; Living and dining room combined; Open floorplan; Solid surface and stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $371k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-926 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (36.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (41.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (41.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $371k implies a 876% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,523 (41.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.70%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-98,790
• Equity at exit: $81,106

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-155,252
• Equity at exit: $78,164

Cash invested: $103,877 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,175 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,946
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$464 /mo · $5,565/yr
• Insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$81
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-926

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,348

Max offer price $236,940

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-670	-5% $-798	+0% $-926	+5% $-1,055	+10% $-1,183
Rent	-10% $-1,098	-5% $-1,012	+0% $-926	+5% $-840	+10% $-755
Rate	-1.0pp $-740	-0.5pp $-832	base $-926	+0.5pp $-1,023	+1.0pp $-1,120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,748
• Closing costs: $11,130
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1907 Manatee Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,795	$1.00	24d	1	0.03mi
431 Arkansas Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1764	$1,895	$1.07	4d	1	0.40mi
241 Grouper Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1762	$2,000	$1.14	24d	1	0.63mi
102 Flatfish Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2804	$2,000	$0.71	24d	1	0.67mi
102 Flatfish Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2804	$2,000	$0.71	4d	1	0.67mi
301 Shad Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,000	$0.94	22d	1	0.78mi
303 Shad Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1930	$1,999	$1.04	24d	1	0.79mi
459 Rio Grande Ln Poinciana, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$1,745	$0.87	24d	1	0.79mi
439 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1791	$1,800	$1.01	4d	1	0.90mi
333 Daffodil Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,040	$1.10	14d	1	0.92mi
452 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	24d	1	0.97mi
1707 Sail Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,015	$1.11	4d	1	0.97mi
1662 Redfin Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1852	$1,940	$1.05	24d	1	0.98mi
2006 Maple Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1886	$2,040	$1.08	4d	1	1.05mi
1630 Tench Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1944	$1,995	$1.03	4d	1	1.10mi
309 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,150	$1.22	4d	1	1.14mi
222 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$1,970	$1.08	4d	1	1.17mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	15d	1	1.18mi
204 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	24d	1	1.18mi
1401 Punta Gorda Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2630	$1,925	$0.73	4d	1	1.19mi
1282 Clove Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1906	$1,600	$0.84	4d	1	1.22mi
1402 Kissimmee Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1800	$1,850	$1.03	22d	1	1.42mi
2129 Hibiscus Pl Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$2,100	$1.19	4d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $81 · $972/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $370,990 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $370,990 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $374,990 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $374,990 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $374,990 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,990 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $374,990 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $374,990 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $374,990 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $374,990 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $374,990 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $374,990 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $374,990 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $374,990 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $374,990
16. 2026-04-16
    price $376,990
17. 2026-02-11
    listed $380,990 Active
18. 2025-10-15
    soldstatus $38,000
19. 2025-08-31
    historical
20. 2025-07-17
    price $49,900
21. 2025-07-02
    status Active
22. 2025-04-21
    status Pending
23. 2025-04-03
    price $54,900
24. 2025-03-19
    price $56,700
25. 2025-03-13
    listed $56,900 Active
26. 2025-02-10
    soldstatus $45,000
27. 2016-10-10
    soldstatus $6,900
28. 2007-11-19
    listed $15,000
29. 2006-10-06
    listed $57,500
30. 2005-08-04
    soldstatus $51,600
31. 2005-05-19
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,103
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,781
• − Property taxes: −$5,565
• − Insurance: −$1,855
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,088
• − Management: −$2,088
• − HOA: −$972
• − Depreciation: −$10,792
• Taxable loss: −$18,039
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,329
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,787/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+733.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $374,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $376,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Listed $380,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $54,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $56,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-13 Listed $56,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2016-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $6,900 Public Records
• 2007-11-19 Listed $15,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-06 Listed $57,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $51,600 Public Records
• 2005-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $624 · +68.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.