2900 Castro St · Austin, TX 78702

$499,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,616 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 511 Days on market

Built 1948 5,963 sqft lot $309/sqft · 44% below area Est $890k · 44% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect investment opportunity in Central East Austin—the most "Austin-vibe" place there is! Impressive . 137 acres. Property backs up to Boggy Creek so it will never have neighbors directly behind it! The surrounding area is hot with opportunity being mostly surrounded with newly constructed homes, duplexes, and condominiums. Minutes from an array of outdoor leisure attractions including Zaragoza Park, Boggy Creek Greenbelt, Pan American Park, Metz Park and Pool, Rosewood Park, Walnut Creek, and of course Lady Bird Lake. Enjoy proximity to popular social hotspots such as Flitch Coffee, Cavalier Bar, Justine's, Juniper, Lustre Pearl, and the famous Rainey Street. Whether you're looking to build your dream city residence in the heart of Austin or you're an investor looking for an amazing opportunity to build a multi-family residence in a prime location— look no further!

Key facts

• Prime location
• 5,963 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• BACKS UP TO BOGGY CREEK
• OUTDOOR LEISURE ATTRACTIONS
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $480k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $439k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Austin ISD (urban): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #431 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,804/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($102k/yr) (locally 1750% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 511 days — a 12% lower offer ($439k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $439,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 511 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.24%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $890,388
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: -43.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3004 Webberville Rd #2	0.31mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,436 (-11%)	13mo	$595,000	$414	45
1004 Fiesta St #1	0.17mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,854 (+15%)	18mo	$929,000	$501	40
203 Tillery Sq	0.67mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,544 (-4%)	19mo	$759,900	$492	36
2709 E 2nd St Unit A	0.69mi	5/3.0	1,829 (+13%)	9mo	$794,500	$434	30
3307 Kay St #1	0.70mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,849 (+14%)	5mo	$794,000	$429	28
2111 E 8th St	0.67mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,851 (+14%)	6mo	$799,000	$432	26
3208 Kay St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (-13%)	23mo	$675,000	$479	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-78,193
• Equity at exit: $74,403

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-100,587
• Equity at exit: $43,144

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78702

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,804 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$709 /mo · $8,512/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,009
• Net cashflow: $261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,473

Max offer price $499,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3116 Prado St Unit 1 Austin, TX	5.0	4.0	1833	$7,500	$4.09	12d	1	0.14mi
3014 Neal St Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	1987	$4,500	$2.26	43d	1	0.32mi
1902 E 8th St Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	1876	$8,900	$4.74	4d	1	0.86mi
2404 E 13th St Unit A Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	1560	$2,995	$1.92	4d	1	1.07mi
2406 E 16th St Austin, TX	4.0	4.0	1818	$3,795	$2.09	4d	1	1.19mi
1107 Desirable Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1200	$3,500	$2.92	23d	1	1.26mi
1702 Singleton Ave Unit A Austin, TX	5.0	2.5	1500	$2,495	$1.66	1d	1	1.26mi
1702 Singleton Ave Unit A Austin, TX	5.0	2.5	1640	$2,595	$1.58	23d	1	1.26mi
1812 Maple Ave Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,995	$1.50	43d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,000 Active 511 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,000 Active 510 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,000 Active 509 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,000 Active 508 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,000 Active 506 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,000 Active 502 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,000 Active 501 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $499,000 Active 500 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $499,000 Active 497 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $499,000 Active 496 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,000 Active 495 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,000 Active 494 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,000 Active 493 DOM
14. 2026-01-11
    price $499,000 903-char remark

    Show marketing remark (903 chars)

    Perfect investment opportunity in Central East Austin—the most "Austin-vibe" place there is! Impressive . 137 acres. Property backs up to Boggy Creek so it will never have neighbors directly behind it! The surrounding area is hot with opportunity being mostly surrounded with newly constructed homes, duplexes, and condominiums. Minutes from an array of outdoor leisure attractions including Zaragoza Park, Boggy Creek Greenbelt, Pan American Park, Metz Park and Pool, Rosewood Park, Walnut Creek, and of course Lady Bird Lake. Enjoy proximity to popular social hotspots such as Flitch Coffee, Cavalier Bar, Justine's, Juniper, Lustre Pearl, and the famous Rainey Street. Whether you're looking to build your dream city residence in the heart of Austin or you're an investor looking for an amazing opportunity to build a multi-family residence in a prime location— look no further!

15. 2025-03-24
    price $500,000 903-char remark

    Show marketing remark (903 chars)

    Perfect investment opportunity in Central East Austin—the most "Austin-vibe" place there is! Impressive . 137 acres. Property backs up to Boggy Creek so it will never have neighbors directly behind it! The surrounding area is hot with opportunity being mostly surrounded with newly constructed homes, duplexes, and condominiums. Minutes from an array of outdoor leisure attractions including Zaragoza Park, Boggy Creek Greenbelt, Pan American Park, Metz Park and Pool, Rosewood Park, Walnut Creek, and of course Lady Bird Lake. Enjoy proximity to popular social hotspots such as Flitch Coffee, Cavalier Bar, Justine's, Juniper, Lustre Pearl, and the famous Rainey Street. Whether you're looking to build your dream city residence in the heart of Austin or you're an investor looking for an amazing opportunity to build a multi-family residence in a prime location— look no further!

16. 2025-02-22
    price $525,000 903-char remark

    Show marketing remark (903 chars)

    Perfect investment opportunity in Central East Austin—the most "Austin-vibe" place there is! Impressive . 137 acres. Property backs up to Boggy Creek so it will never have neighbors directly behind it! The surrounding area is hot with opportunity being mostly surrounded with newly constructed homes, duplexes, and condominiums. Minutes from an array of outdoor leisure attractions including Zaragoza Park, Boggy Creek Greenbelt, Pan American Park, Metz Park and Pool, Rosewood Park, Walnut Creek, and of course Lady Bird Lake. Enjoy proximity to popular social hotspots such as Flitch Coffee, Cavalier Bar, Justine's, Juniper, Lustre Pearl, and the famous Rainey Street. Whether you're looking to build your dream city residence in the heart of Austin or you're an investor looking for an amazing opportunity to build a multi-family residence in a prime location— look no further!

17. 2025-01-23
    listed $545,000 Active 903-char remark

    Show marketing remark (903 chars)

    Perfect investment opportunity in Central East Austin—the most "Austin-vibe" place there is! Impressive . 137 acres. Property backs up to Boggy Creek so it will never have neighbors directly behind it! The surrounding area is hot with opportunity being mostly surrounded with newly constructed homes, duplexes, and condominiums. Minutes from an array of outdoor leisure attractions including Zaragoza Park, Boggy Creek Greenbelt, Pan American Park, Metz Park and Pool, Rosewood Park, Walnut Creek, and of course Lady Bird Lake. Enjoy proximity to popular social hotspots such as Flitch Coffee, Cavalier Bar, Justine's, Juniper, Lustre Pearl, and the famous Rainey Street. Whether you're looking to build your dream city residence in the heart of Austin or you're an investor looking for an amazing opportunity to build a multi-family residence in a prime location— look no further!

18. 1991-04-29
    soldstatus
19. 1973-07-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,512 · $709/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,132 · $761/mo
• Expected delta: +$620/yr (+$52/mo · 7.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$8,512
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,612
• − Management: −$4,612
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$5,053
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,213
• After-tax cash flow: $4,344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Austin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808940
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,627
• Composite: 33.65/100
• National rank: #5397
• State rank: #431 of 826 in TX

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austin, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,985
• Household income: $102,171
• Rent vs Own: 59.1% rent · 40.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1750.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 12% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -394.53%
• Current HPI: 295.5178
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.06%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $499,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-03-24 Price Changed $500,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-02-22 Price Changed $525,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-01-23 Listed $545,000 Unlock MLS
• 1991-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1973-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $8,512 · -19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.