575 Willow Dr · East Marion, NY 11939

$1,195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1985 0.97 ac lot Est $1013k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

This East Marion gem is on the perfect sunlit corner lot! Set on a shy acre, in a park like setting with room for a pool and waiting for you to take to the next level. Minutes to all the best beaches, including 67 Steps Beach, located within the community. Cozy front porch and spacious backyard deck. An open layout, living room with fireplace, 3 beds, 2 baths and a full basement. You can keep it simple or get as bougie as you wish! Create memories that are built to last. Surrounded by North Fork farm stands, marinas, boating, award winning wineries, great shopping, and Duryea's in Orient Point! This one will go fast!

Key facts

• Room for a pool
• Sunlit corner lot
• Park like setting

Tags

• SUNLIT CORNER LOT
• PARK LIKE SETTING
• ROOM FOR A POOL
• MINUTES TO BEACHES
• COZY FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Vinyl-sided construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Back yard; Front yard; Corner lot; Landscaped grounds; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom included
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil heating; Central air conditioning; See remarks for additional heating details
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom and full bath; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Master suite on the ground floor; Covered porch
• Laundry & utility: Basement (full, unfinished) — utility/storage space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.20M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.13M (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.13M (5.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,051 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Oysterponds Union Free School District (rural): math 30% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #506 of 755 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Oysterponds Elementary School (math 54% / reading 64%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 80 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 45% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Oysterponds Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $50k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $41k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $335k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$80k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $494k; list at $1.20M implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,132,254 (5.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.88%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,012,800
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4200 Rocky Point Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-6%)	6mo	$950,000	$633	66
3420 Rocky Point Rd	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,400 (-12%)	2mo	$1,230,000	$879	63
3130 Rocky Point Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,764 (+10%)	22mo	$925,000	$524	54
12115 Main Rd	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,504 (-6%)	8mo	$750,000	$499	52
90 The Strand	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,450 (-9%)	8mo	$3,300,000	$2,276	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $277,909
• Equity at exit: $569,221

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $806,235
• Equity at exit: $902,886

Cash invested: $334,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11939

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,323 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,267
• Tax from tax record: −$541 /mo · $6,495/yr
• Insurance: −$498
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,378
• Net cashflow: $1,639

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,248

Max offer price $1,195,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,315	-5% $1,977	+0% $1,639	+5% $1,301	+10% $962
Rent	-10% $744	-5% $1,192	+0% $1,639	+5% $2,086	+10% $2,533
Rate	-1.0pp $2,241	-0.5pp $1,943	base $1,639	+0.5pp $1,329	+1.0pp $1,014

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $298,750
• Closing costs: $35,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
870 Stars Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	3.0	1500	$10,000	$6.67	44d	1	0.20mi
1850 Rocky Point Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	2.0	1140	$10,000	$8.77	44d	1	0.24mi
3045 Rocky Point Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	2.0	2025	$12,000	$5.93	44d	1	0.26mi
460 Bay Ave East Marion, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$8,000	$5.33	44d	1	0.45mi
300 Marion Pl East Marion, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$19,000	$10.86	25d	1	0.60mi
11930 Main Rd East Marion, NY	4.0	2.0	2200	$3,500	$1.59	44d	1	0.68mi
1110 Gillette Dr East Marion, NY	4.0	2.0	1500	$7,000	$4.67	19d	1	0.84mi
580 South Ln East Marion, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$20,000	$10.00	19d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   status $1,195,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 624-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $1,195,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,495 · $541/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,345 · $1,112/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,850/yr (+$571/mo · 105.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $135,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$66,939
• − Property taxes: −$6,495
• − Insurance: −$5,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,870
• − Management: −$10,870
• − Depreciation: −$34,764
• Taxable loss: −$41
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10
• After-tax cash flow: $19,677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oysterponds Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621930
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $71,948
• Composite: 42.9/100
• National rank: #6712
• State rank: #506 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Marion

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1051
• US rank: #20822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Marion, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,741

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scottish 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.47%
• Current HPI: 281.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2243.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Coming Soon $1,195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $494,400 Public Records
• 1999-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,495 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.