2153 Willow Cove Dr · Falcon Lake Estates, TX 78076

$95,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 403 Days on market

Built 1982 7,800 sqft lot $106/sqft · 14% below area Est $110k · 14% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity! This tenant-occupied two-bedroom home is on a month-to-month lease, offering immediate income potential. Perfect for investors looking to expand their portfolio with a reliable rental. Interior access and photos coming soon—awaiting tenant permission. Don’t miss your chance to own an income-producing property with built-in cash flow. Contact us today for more details! Please note: the small white storage unit in the back is not part of the property.

Key facts

• 7,800 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1982

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($580/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $87k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#748 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Zapata County ISD (town): math 21% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #767 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Zapata County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 403 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 403 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.18%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,000
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -13.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $12,572
• Equity at exit: $40,637

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $42,923
• Equity at exit: $61,055

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78076

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $868 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,199/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $807

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 403 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 402 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 401 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 400 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 399 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 398 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 397 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 394 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 393 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 392 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 391 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 388 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 387 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 386 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 385 DOM
16. 2026-05-03
    status Active 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! This tenant-occupied two-bedroom home is on a month-to-month lease, offering immediate income potential. Perfect for investors looking to expand their portfolio with a reliable rental. Interior access and photos coming soon—awaiting tenant permission. Don’t miss your chance to own an income-producing property with built-in cash flow. Contact us today for more details! Please note: the small white storage unit in the back is not part of the property.

17. 2025-11-04
    status Active 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! This tenant-occupied two-bedroom home is on a month-to-month lease, offering immediate income potential. Perfect for investors looking to expand their portfolio with a reliable rental. Interior access and photos coming soon—awaiting tenant permission. Don’t miss your chance to own an income-producing property with built-in cash flow. Contact us today for more details! Please note: the small white storage unit in the back is not part of the property.

18. 2025-08-20
    price $95,000 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! This tenant-occupied two-bedroom home is on a month-to-month lease, offering immediate income potential. Perfect for investors looking to expand their portfolio with a reliable rental. Interior access and photos coming soon—awaiting tenant permission. Don’t miss your chance to own an income-producing property with built-in cash flow. Contact us today for more details! Please note: the small white storage unit in the back is not part of the property.

19. 2025-05-07
    listed $115,000 Active 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! This tenant-occupied two-bedroom home is on a month-to-month lease, offering immediate income potential. Perfect for investors looking to expand their portfolio with a reliable rental. Interior access and photos coming soon—awaiting tenant permission. Don’t miss your chance to own an income-producing property with built-in cash flow. Contact us today for more details! Please note: the small white storage unit in the back is not part of the property.

20. 2006-12-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,199 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$539/yr (+$45/mo · 44.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,199
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$834
• − Management: −$834
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$1,005
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$241
• After-tax cash flow: $822/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Zapata County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846710
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $30,189
• Composite: 18.09/100
• National rank: #8974
• State rank: #767 of 826 in TX

Livability — Falcon Lake Estates

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #748
• US rank: #13800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Falcon Lake Estates, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,085

Population outlook (Zapata County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,795 people
• By 2030: 14,837 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 14,759 · -0.2%
• By 2050: 14,316 · -3.2%
• By 2075: 11,647 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 7,265 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 94% Two or more races 52% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 89%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 16% English-only · Spanish 84% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Zapata

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.4) · D 38.5% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -58.0pp toward R · 2008: 35.6pp · 2024: -22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.4 2020: R+5.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+43.2 2008: D+35.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 117.0315
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Relisted — LAOR
• 2025-11-04 Relisted — LAOR
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $95,000 LAOR
• 2025-05-07 Listed $115,000 LAOR
• 2006-12-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,199 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.