621 Sheafe Rd #76 · Crown Heights, NY 12601

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured · 34 Days on market

Built 1979 Average condition $95/sqft · at area comps Est $99k · at est. $850/mo HOA · 42% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Camelot Village! This charming mobile home offers 2 bedrooms and an big size bathroom; all nestled within an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the family room and kitchen—perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. Camelot Village is just a short stroll from the Galleria Mall, supermarkets, pharmacies, public transportation, and a variety of local restaurants. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer or looking to downsize, this home offers comfort, convenience, and community. Enjoy the perks of living in a well-maintained park with amenities like a clubhouse and playground—all within the Wappingers Central School District.

Key facts

• Well-maintained park
• Clubhouse
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WELL-MAINTAINED PARK
• CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Dutchess County
• HOA & community: Community association with monthly fee of $850; Association fee covers common area maintenance, snow removal, and trash

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; No carport
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Propane; Sewer: other
• Home design: Mobile home (single wide); Living area listed as 1,000
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Single wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Open floor plan; 3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $111 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#188 in NY, #2,904 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Wappingers Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #207 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 42% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.02%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $98,909
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -3.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
621 Sheafe Rd #50	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,000 (0%)	10mo	$94,000	$94	92
621 Sheafe Rd #123	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (0%)	9mo	$95,000	$95	87
621 Sheafe Rd #184	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (0%)	10mo	$105,000	$105	86
567 Sheafe Rd Lot 52	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-4%)	13mo	$115,000	$120	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-6,364
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $11,613
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12601

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,048 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$850
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,907

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $144	+0% $111	+5% $78	+10% $46
Rent	-10% $-51	-5% $30	+0% $111	+5% $192	+10% $273
Rate	-1.0pp $159	-0.5pp $135	base $111	+0.5pp $87	+1.0pp $62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19 Anthony Dr Poughkeepsie, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$2,595	$3.05	14d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $850 · $10,200/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-17
   historical
2. 2026-04-09
   status Active
3. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-27
   listed $95,000 Active 662-char remark
5. 2026-02-06
   listed $95,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,574
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,966
• − Management: −$1,966
• − HOA: −$10,200
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $457
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$110
• After-tax cash flow: $1,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home has average condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — dated and could be updated
• Minor bathroom fixtures — dated and could be updated
• Moderate exterior siding — moderate wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modernizing the kitchen
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom
• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and could be updated	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and could be updated	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior siding · moderate wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$4,000–21,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modernizing the kitchen ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom ↑
• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wappingers Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629880
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $83,184
• Composite: 53.38/100
• National rank: #1474
• State rank: #207 of 590 in NY

Livability — Crown Heights

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #188
• US rank: #2904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,164
• Household income: $63,652
• Rent vs Own: 56.8% rent · 43.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2891.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.62%
• Current HPI: 293.9789
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listed $95,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Listed $95,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid