4763 Airlake Dr · Woodbury, MN 55129

$374,990

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,883 sqft · Townhouse · 5 Days on market

Built 2026 1,742 sqft lot $199/sqft · at area comps Est $365k · at est. $269/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Our beautiful Bowman floorplan boasts a huge kitchen island with quartz countertops, white cabinets, and generous amount of storage! The upper level features a spacious owner's bedroom and private bathroom, two additional bedrooms, full bath and laundry. Close to the city of St. Paul, Woodbury Lakes shopping, trails, parks, and multiple golf courses. Located in Washington County School District.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• White cabinets
• Huge kitchen island

Tags

• HUGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WHITE CABINETS
• GENEROUS AMOUNT OF STORAGE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WOODBURY LAKES SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 25x75 (1,742 sq ft); Above-grade living area approximately 1,883 sq ft; Main level finished area approximately 915 sq ft
• HOA & community: Has HOA managed by First Service Residential; Monthly association fee of $269; HOA covers lawn care, snow removal, and professional management; Association amenity: in-ground sprinkler system; Builder association: Builders Association of the Twin Cities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; 150 amp electrical service; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential attached property; Two levels; Slab foundation; New construction; Shingled asphalt pitched roof (age 8 years or less)
• Construction: Built by Pulte Homes; Foundation on slab; Asphalt pitched roof; Stone and vinyl construction
• Exterior features: Patio; Stone and vinyl exterior; Sod included in price; Light tree coverage; In-ground sprinkler system; No fencing; Road frontage includes curbs, paved streets, street lights; located on a private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with center island; Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Disposal; Stainless steel appliances; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Breakfast area / eat-in kitchen / informal dining
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary on main; two additional bedrooms on upper level); Primary bedroom has ensuite and walk-in closet; Bedroom sizes include 14x15, 11x11, 11x10
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper level); One three-quarter primary bathroom (primary bedroom); One half bath on main level; Double sink in primary bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Air-to-air exchanger; Exhaust fan; Indoor sprinklers; Primary bedroom with double sink and private ensuite; Primary bedroom with 3/4 bath and walk-in closet; Main floor half bath; Upper-level full bath; 3 bedrooms on one level
• Laundry & utility: Upper-level laundry room (washer and electric dryer hookups); Washer/dryer hookup in unit; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-249 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $331k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $283k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Woodbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#6 in MN, #153 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• South Washington County School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #40 of 301 in MN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $283,411 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.84%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $365,323
• List price: $374,990
• Delta: 2.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.91% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-76,887
• Equity at exit: $55,912

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-88,491
• Equity at exit: $32,422

Cash invested: $104,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55129

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 356
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,834 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,152/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$269
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $-249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,149

Max offer price $331,041

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-37	-5% $-143	+0% $-249	+5% $-355	+10% $-461
Rent	-10% $-473	-5% $-361	+0% $-249	+5% $-137	+10% $-25
Rate	-1.0pp $-60	-0.5pp $-153	base $-249	+0.5pp $-346	+1.0pp $-445

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,748
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10692 Wiles Way Saint Paul, MN	3.0	3.0	1777	$2,600	$1.46	44d	1	0.34mi
10108 Sunbird Cir Saint Paul, MN	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1815	$3,298	$1.82	0d	7	0.36mi
11007 Oakgrove Cir Woodbury, MN	3.0	2.5	1826	$2,400	$1.31	44d	1	1.15mi
3790 Hazel Trl Unit B Saint Paul, MN	3.0	3.0	1560	$2,395	$1.54	44d	1	1.26mi
3775 Hazel Trl Unit H Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.5	1570	$2,125	$1.35	18d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $269 · $3,228/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 399-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   price $374,990 399-char remark
3. 2026-05-01
   listed $376,990 Active 399-char remark
4. 2024-08-15
   soldstatus $6,632,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,152 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,676 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,524/yr (+$127/mo · 132.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,005
• − Property taxes: −$1,152
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,721
• − Management: −$2,721
• − HOA: −$3,228
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$9,601
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,304
• After-tax cash flow: $-681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Washington County School District
• NCES district ID: 2733810
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $88,285
• Composite: 51.8/100
• National rank: #1670
• State rank: #40 of 301 in MN

Livability — Woodbury

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #153

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodbury, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 78,305
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 34,120
• Household income: $143,795
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 639.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Asian 17% Black 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.89%
• Current HPI: 216.0248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.91%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-94.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $374,990 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $376,990 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $6,632,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+71.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,152 · +71.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.