3050 Rain Dance Ln · North Fort Myers, FL 33917

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1987 4,443 sqft lot Est $115k · at est. $125/mo HOA · 8% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THE BEST DEAL IN LAKE ARROWHEAD FOR A QUALITY HOME. TERMITE & HOME WARRANTY CONTRACTS PAID FOR 2009 & CAN TRANSFER TO NEW OWNER PER SELLER. MAINT. FEE PAID FOR 3 MONTHS. THIS IS A NICE ENERGMISER PALM HARBOR HOME. ORIGINAL OWNER. LARGE BEDROOMS, SPLIT PLAN. OFFICE. NEW A/C 2001, ROOFOVER 1995 PER SELLER. 2 CAR CARPORT. SPRINKLER SYSTEM NOT USED AS IS. NEW DISPOSAL. ROLDOWN SHUTTERS ON SCREENED LANAI. 2 PANTRIES. SERVING WINDOW. WALK IN CLOSET. MAINT FEE $86/MO FOR TRASH REMOVAL, STREET MAINTENANCE, USE OF ALL AMENITIES. FISHING PIER. TONS OF FUN DINNERS, DANCES, TRAVEL, BOCCI, DARTS, CARDS, SHUFFLEBOARD, BINGO, BOWLING, GOLFING, EXCERCISE & MORE ACTIVITIES. RV/CAR/BOAT STORAGE AREA. SORRY NO PET IN THIS LOCATION.

Key facts

• Replumbed
• Home surge protector
• Energymizer model

Tags

• ENERGYMIZER MODEL
• HOME SURGE PROTECTOR
• ROLLDOWN ELECTRIC SHUTTERS
• NEW KITCHEN RANGE
• VAPOR BARRIER UPDATED
• REPLUMBED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: One-unit community
• Financial info: Pets not allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $125 monthly fee; Association covers management, internet, laundry, recreation facilities, road maintenance, street lights and trash; Community amenities include pool, spa/hot tub, clubhouse, fitness center, billiards/hobby/library rooms, bocce and shuffleboard courts, pier, RV/boat storage and management; Street lights in community; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Attached carport with 2 carport spaces; Driveway; Paved and underground access noted; Two parking spaces
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; Vinyl siding; One-story entry level; Faces north; Exposed to south
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Roof over; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Screened lanai/porch; Porch; Outbuilding; Shutters (electric)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Icemaker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator (with ice maker)
• Bedrooms: Includes an office and a screened porch as additional room types
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Built-in features; Living/dining room; Pantry; Shower only (separate shower); Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Home office; Split bedrooms; Window treatments and shutters; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer; Dryer hookup; Laundry located in common area and in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.6% in North Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#269 in FL, #4,409 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Diplomat Elementary School (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #564 of 2,144 statewide, top 27%, 1,069 students, 56% FRL); Mariner Middle School (math 50% / reading 47%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 1,001 students, 53% FRL); Ida S. Baker High School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,933 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 846 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $120k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.85%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $114,912
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
974 Restful Rd	0.64mi	2/2.0	960 (-5%)	3mo	$109,575	$114	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $2,955
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $29,978
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33917

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 846
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,651 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,685/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,196

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $428	-5% $394	+0% $360	+5% $326	+10% $292
Rent	-10% $229	-5% $295	+0% $360	+5% $425	+10% $490
Rate	-1.0pp $420	-0.5pp $390	base $360	+0.5pp $329	+1.0pp $297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
266 Mongoose Ln #266 North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,499	$1.09	4d	1	0.26mi
2774 Wedgewood Dr North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	880	$1,300	$1.48	25d	1	0.31mi
4120 Pine Drop Ln North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	957	$1,895	$1.98	25d	1	0.38mi
2095 Eloise Cir North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	25d	1	0.43mi
2027 Eloise Cir North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	822	$1,300	$1.58	4d	1	0.48mi
535 Zebra Dr #535 North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,499	$1.11	16d	1	0.48mi
17499 Monte Isola Way Unit 17499 North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1405	$1,800	$1.28	15d	1	0.69mi
17489 Monte Isola Way North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1347	$1,800	$1.34	16d	1	0.70mi
4208 Caterina Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1347	$1,800	$1.34	16d	1	0.78mi
17400 Monte Isola Way North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,875	$1.29	25d	1	0.81mi
16363 Teresa Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	25d	1	0.84mi
4264 Cirella Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1442	$2,000	$1.39	13d	1	0.85mi
4276 Cirella Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1378	$1,800	$1.31	25d	1	0.86mi
4275 Cirella Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1378	$1,800	$1.31	25d	1	0.90mi
3404 Rainbow Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	4d	1	0.92mi
28 Nyborg Ave North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1042	$1,299	$1.25	16d	1	1.06mi
3957 Pomodoro Cir #301 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$1,450	$1.14	17d	1	1.17mi
3961 Pomodoro Cir #204 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$1,450	$1.14	17d	1	1.18mi
3961 Pomodoro Cir #204 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$1,450	$1.14	25d	1	1.18mi
3953 Pomodoro Cir Cape Coral, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$1,462	$1.40	16d	9	1.21mi
3973 Pomodoro Cir Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1534	$1,575	$1.03	4d	3	1.25mi
3973 Pomodoro Cir Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1469	$1,498	$1.02	25d	2	1.25mi
3968 Pomodoro Cir #202 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1469	$1,475	$1.00	16d	1	1.26mi
2904 Tuscan Dr #303 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$1,450	$0.99	25d	1	1.28mi
2913 Tuscan Dr #102 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1469	$1,450	$0.99	25d	1	1.28mi
3944 Pomodoro Cir #202 Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,200	$1.56	25d	1	1.28mi
2909 Tuscan Dr Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1469	$1,475	$1.00	25d	2	1.29mi
3940 Pomodoro Cir Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$1,475	$1.16	4d	2	1.30mi
3940 Villa Del Mar CIR Cape Coral, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$2,116	$2.01	3d	21	1.35mi
8791 Littleton Rd North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1074	$1,549	$1.44	25d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Likely covers: trash

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $120,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $120,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-04-27
    price $120,000
13. 2026-02-16
    price $129,900
14. 2026-01-16
    listed $134,900 Active
15. 2025-12-31
    historical
16. 2025-11-14
    price $134,900
17. 2025-07-03
    price $125,250
18. 2025-06-25
    price $132,400
19. 2025-06-25
    price $132,499
20. 2025-06-19
    price $137,500
21. 2025-06-03
    price $139,800
22. 2025-05-24
    price $142,500
23. 2025-05-18
    price $143,500
24. 2025-05-04
    price $148,800
25. 2025-04-16
    listed $154,400 Active
26. 2018-12-21
    soldstatus $71,500
27. 2009-12-03
    soldstatus $42,000 741-char remark

    Show marketing remark (741 chars)

    THE BEST DEAL IN LAKE ARROWHEAD FOR A QUALITY HOME. TERMITE & HOME WARRANTY CONTRACTS PAID FOR 2009 & CAN TRANSFER TO NEW OWNER PER SELLER. MAINT. FEE PAID FOR 3 MONTHS. THIS IS A NICE ENERGMISER PALM HARBOR HOME. ORIGINAL OWNER. LARGE BEDROOMS, SPLIT PLAN. OFFICE. NEW A/C 2001, ROOFOVER 1995 PER SELLER. 2 CAR CARPORT. SPRINKLER SYSTEM NOT USED AS IS. NEW DISPOSAL. ROLDOWN SHUTTERS ON SCREENED LANAI. 2 PANTRIES. SERVING WINDOW. WALK IN CLOSET. MAINT FEE $86/MO FOR TRASH REMOVAL, STREET MAINTENANCE, USE OF ALL AMENITIES. FISHING PIER. TONS OF FUN DINNERS, DANCES, TRAVEL, BOCCI, DARTS, CARDS, SHUFFLEBOARD, BINGO, BOWLING, GOLFING, EXCERCISE & MORE ACTIVITIES. RV/CAR/BOAT STORAGE AREA. SORRY NO PET IN THIS LOCATION.

28. 2009-11-12
    price $49,900 741-char remark

    Show marketing remark (741 chars)

    THE BEST DEAL IN LAKE ARROWHEAD FOR A QUALITY HOME. TERMITE & HOME WARRANTY CONTRACTS PAID FOR 2009 & CAN TRANSFER TO NEW OWNER PER SELLER. MAINT. FEE PAID FOR 3 MONTHS. THIS IS A NICE ENERGMISER PALM HARBOR HOME. ORIGINAL OWNER. LARGE BEDROOMS, SPLIT PLAN. OFFICE. NEW A/C 2001, ROOFOVER 1995 PER SELLER. 2 CAR CARPORT. SPRINKLER SYSTEM NOT USED AS IS. NEW DISPOSAL. ROLDOWN SHUTTERS ON SCREENED LANAI. 2 PANTRIES. SERVING WINDOW. WALK IN CLOSET. MAINT FEE $86/MO FOR TRASH REMOVAL, STREET MAINTENANCE, USE OF ALL AMENITIES. FISHING PIER. TONS OF FUN DINNERS, DANCES, TRAVEL, BOCCI, DARTS, CARDS, SHUFFLEBOARD, BINGO, BOWLING, GOLFING, EXCERCISE & MORE ACTIVITIES. RV/CAR/BOAT STORAGE AREA. SORRY NO PET IN THIS LOCATION.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,685 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,685 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,685
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,585
• − Management: −$1,585
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,647
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$635
• After-tax cash flow: $3,682/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Fort Myers

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #4409

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Fort Myers, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 57,035
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,380
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 775.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.28%
• Current HPI: 282.2895
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.63%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+140.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $120,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $129,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $134,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $134,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $125,250 FORTMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $132,400 FORTMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $132,499 FORTMLS
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $137,500 FORTMLS
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $139,800 FORTMLS
• 2025-05-24 Price Changed $142,500 FORTMLS
• 2025-05-18 Price Changed $143,500 FORTMLS
• 2025-05-04 Price Changed $148,800 FORTMLS
• 2025-04-16 Listed $154,400 FORTMLS
• 2018-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $71,500 Public Records
• 2009-12-03 Sold (MLS) $42,000 FORTMLS
• 2009-11-12 Price Changed $49,900 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,685 · -12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.