5323 Mossgrey Ln · Spring, TX 77373

$249,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,708 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1976 6,089 sqft lot $146/sqft · 10% below area Est $277k · 10% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this well maintained home in mature neighborhood, Wood Floors, big backyard, Newly painted, must see to appreciate!!! Large master suite with a sitting area, Dining room can be used as an office.

Key facts

• 6,089 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1976

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: PMG Management association; Annual association fee of $400

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1976; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fenced private yard; Back yard fencing; Cleared lot; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Vaulted ceiling(s); Solid surface counters; Free standing fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($406/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Chet Burchett El (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 904 students, 82% FRL); Dueitt Middle (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 773 students, 84% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 603 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,894 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,432
• List price: $249,999
• Delta: -9.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23114 Goodfellow Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,541 (-10%)	7mo	$210,000	$136	67
5030 Monteith Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,653 (-3%)	22mo	$180,000	$109	65
23142 Calico Corners Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,599 (-6%)	19mo	$179,000	$112	64
23202 Goodfellow Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,798 (+5%)	14mo	$250,000	$139	62
4822 S Fairfax Village Cir	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,809 (+6%)	2mo	$220,000	$122	48
23814 Gold Cypress Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,539 (-10%)	19mo	$279,990	$182	36
5810 Hampton Valley Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,489 (-13%)	21mo	$255,990	$172	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-45,147
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-62,763
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 603
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,349 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$374 /mo · $4,484/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,306

Max offer price $249,999

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $175	-5% $105	+0% $34	+5% $-37	+10% $-108
Rent	-10% $-152	-5% $-59	+0% $34	+5% $127	+10% $219
Rate	-1.0pp $160	-0.5pp $97	base $34	+0.5pp $-31	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,999 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,999 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,999 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,999 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,999 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,999 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,999 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,999 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,999 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,999 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,999 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,999 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,999 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $249,999 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,999 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,999 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $254,999 Active 660-char remark
18. 2017-04-26
    soldstatus
19. 2017-04-24
    soldstatus Sold 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Come check out this well maintained home in mature neighborhood, Wood Floors, big backyard, Newly painted, must see to appreciate!!! Large master suite with a sitting area, Dining room can be used as an office.

20. 2017-04-20
    status Pending 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Come check out this well maintained home in mature neighborhood, Wood Floors, big backyard, Newly painted, must see to appreciate!!! Large master suite with a sitting area, Dining room can be used as an office.

21. 2017-04-19
    status Active 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Come check out this well maintained home in mature neighborhood, Wood Floors, big backyard, Newly painted, must see to appreciate!!! Large master suite with a sitting area, Dining room can be used as an office.

22. 2017-03-19
    status Pending 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Come check out this well maintained home in mature neighborhood, Wood Floors, big backyard, Newly painted, must see to appreciate!!! Large master suite with a sitting area, Dining room can be used as an office.

23. 2017-03-10
    status Option Pending 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Come check out this well maintained home in mature neighborhood, Wood Floors, big backyard, Newly painted, must see to appreciate!!! Large master suite with a sitting area, Dining room can be used as an office.

24. 2017-03-07
    listed $124,900 Active 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Come check out this well maintained home in mature neighborhood, Wood Floors, big backyard, Newly painted, must see to appreciate!!! Large master suite with a sitting area, Dining room can be used as an office.

25. 1995-01-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,484 · $374/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$91/yr (+$8/mo · 2.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$4,484
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,255
• − Management: −$2,255
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$3,729
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$895
• After-tax cash flow: $1,301/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+100.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $249,999 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $254,999 HARMLS
• 2017-04-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-04-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-04-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2017-03-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-03-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-03-07 Listed $124,900 HARMLS
• 1995-01-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,484 · +12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.