4152 Pughsville Rd · Suffolk, VA 23435

$235,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,057 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1960 $222/sqft · 16% below area Est $279k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3 bedroom 1 bathroom Country home private setting with trees on both sides. Centrally located in beautiful Suffolk. Set on a double lot fenced in with a 30 X 32 dog run. Convenient to Malls/Shopping and schools.

Key facts

• Fenced in
• Centrally located
• Double lot

Tags

• PRIVATE SETTING
• DOUBLE LOT
• FENCED IN
• DOG RUN
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA or community fees indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Driveway parking
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Detached single-story home; Bungalow / Ranch style; Crawl foundation; Simple ownership
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding; Composite roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Wooded yard; Above-ground pool; Back yard fenced with dog run; Storage shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom with full bathroom; Master bedroom (first floor); Additional bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Scuttle access
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $432 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $228k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.5% in Suffolk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in VA, #2,896 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: crime C-, commute F.
• Suffolk City Public School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #72 of 131 in VA (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creekside Elementary (math 44% / reading 66%, grade C, #643 of 1,108 statewide, top 59%, 752 students, 65% FRL); John Yeates Middle (math 60% / reading 83%, grade A, #72 of 342 statewide, top 22%, 506 students, 64% FRL); Nansemond River High (math 44% / reading 87%, grade B, #204 of 319 statewide, top 65%, 1,698 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 39% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.6%/yr); 518 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 680 units permitted in Suffolk city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $235k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.88%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,590
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -15.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4901 Buchanan St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,024 (-3%)	4mo	$285,000	$278	69
5001 Pearl St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-0%)	2mo	$275,000	$260	63
5036 John St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-2%)	12mo	$280,000	$269	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,235
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $95,595
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23435

• Rents YoY: 10.6%
• Active inventory: 518
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,428 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,862/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $432

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,880

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $565	-5% $499	+0% $432	+5% $366	+10% $299
Rent	-10% $241	-5% $336	+0% $432	+5% $528	+10% $624
Rate	-1.0pp $551	-0.5pp $492	base $432	+0.5pp $371	+1.0pp $309

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5109 James St Chesapeake, VA	3.0	1.5	1128	$2,200	$1.95	45d	1	0.50mi
5048 Queen St Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1040	$2,195	$2.11	19d	1	0.54mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   pricedays on market $235,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $240,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-05-06
    listed $240,000 Active 220-char remark
13. 2014-04-01
    soldstatus $116,000
14. 2002-06-27
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,862 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,927 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$65/yr (+$5/mo · 3.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,862
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,330
• − Management: −$2,330
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $1,433
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$344
• After-tax cash flow: $4,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Suffolk City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103710
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -43.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $65,573
• Composite: 48.31/100
• National rank: #2151
• State rank: #72 of 131 in VA

Livability — Suffolk

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #2896

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living C Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Suffolk, VA
• County: Suffolk City · 88,108 people
• City population: 88,108
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 33,721
• Household income: $111,700
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1074.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,269 people
• By 2030: 98,269 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 103,177 · +8.3%
• By 2050: 105,777 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 110,963 · +16.5%
• By 2100: 103,711 · +8.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 36% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: D (+15.9) · D 57.4% · R 41.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.7pp toward D · 2008: 13.2pp · 2024: 15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.9 2020: D+17.3 2016: D+13.8 2012: D+15.1 2008: D+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.93%
• Current HPI: 162.3775
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.61%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+213.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $235,000 REINMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $240,000 REINMLS
• 2014-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records
• 2002-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,862 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.