9579 Flourish Dr · Connerton, FL 34637

$319,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,627 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 5,000 sqft lot Est $399k · 20% under $129/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 9579 Flourish Dr, Land O’ Lakes, FL 34637 — a beautifully maintained, move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a 2-car garage located in the highly sought-after Connerton Village community. Built in 2021 and offering 1,627 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this modern one-story home combines comfort, functionality, and the incredible Florida lifestyle buyers are searching for in today’s market. The seller has strategically priced this property based on current market conditions and the excellent condition of the home, creating an outstanding opportunity for buyers seeking value in the Land O’ Lakes real estate market. Inside, you&rsqu

Key facts

• Upgraded landscaping
• Brick paver patio
• Covered lanai

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• UPGRADED LANDSCAPING
• BRICK PAVER PATIO
• COVERED LANAI

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Pets allowed; Community features: clubhouse, fitness center, reclaimed irrigation, park, playground, pool, sidewalks, tennis courts, street lights
• Financial info: CDD present
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fees (approximately $59.89; additional association fee listed $69.53); Association approval required; Association amenities include: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, basketball court, playground, park, trails, recreation facilities, maintenance, wheelchair access; Managed by Folio Association Management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (18x21) with garage door opener; Driveway; Garage faces rear
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Phone available; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Completed condition; Faces east; Planned unit development (PUD/MPUD)
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on less than 1/4 acre (approximately 0.11 acre)
• Exterior features: Covered front porch and patio; Porch; Exterior lighting; Private mailbox; Sidewalk; Vinyl fencing; Irrigation equipment; Landscaped with trees; Near public transit; Paved roads; Private maintained road; Level, landscaped lot; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Freezer; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stone countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Stone countertops; Thermostat; Double-pane windows; Attic; Family room; Inside utility
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $319k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-452 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (25.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,103 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.08%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $398,615
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9783 Wild Begonia Loop	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,614 (-1%)	0mo	$345,000	$214	93
8772 Flourish Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,754 (+8%)	12mo	$505,000	$288	43
22223 Storybook Cabin Way	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,870 (+15%)	11mo	$385,000	$206	35
22425 Storybook Cabin Way	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-11%)	20mo	$355,000	$245	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-60,281
• Equity at exit: $68,840

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-70,433
• Equity at exit: $65,541

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,586 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$560 /mo · $6,722/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$129
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-452

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,158

Max offer price $239,103

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-272	-5% $-362	+0% $-452	+5% $-543	+10% $-633
Rent	-10% $-657	-5% $-554	+0% $-452	+5% $-350	+10% $-248
Rate	-1.0pp $-292	-0.5pp $-371	base $-452	+0.5pp $-535	+1.0pp $-619

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21818 Lyonia Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,250	$1.41	15d	1	0.11mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	6d	1	0.12mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	0d	1	0.12mi
9750 Campanula Ct Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	2208	$2,700	$1.22	25d	1	0.13mi
21869 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,400	$1.50	25d	1	0.16mi
9676 Nyssa St Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,099	$1.31	13d	1	0.18mi
8862 Gallantree Pl Unit 8862-Townhouse Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,195	$1.37	13d	1	0.97mi
9645 Carabiner Way Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,700	$1.44	25d	1	1.08mi
22310 Blazing Star Run Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,650	$1.42	19d	1	1.30mi
9436 Scouter Bee Pl Land O' Lakes, FL	2.0	2.5	1951	$2,350	$1.20	6d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $129 · $1,548/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $319,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-28
    listed $319,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,722 · $560/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,722 · $560/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$6,722
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,482
• − Management: −$2,482
• − HOA: −$1,548
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$10,950
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,628
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in-ready home in Connerton Village offers a modern and well-maintained living space with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
• Resale Clean gutters — Keeps home looking well-maintained and prevents water damage.
• Both Replace window treatments — Fresh window treatments can improve both the look and energy efficiency of the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Resale Clean gutters — Keeps home looking well-maintained and prevents water damage. ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Fresh window treatments can improve both the look and energy efficiency of the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 96.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $319,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+31.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,722 · -6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.