17 Fir Drive Trce · Silver Springs Shores, FL 34472

$305,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,220 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2006 0.29 ac lot Est $349k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Wonderful 2 story family home with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 Bathrooms. As you walk in the home you see the grand entryway with staircase and high ceiling with an abundance of natural light. To the left is the family room that leads into the heart of the home, the kitchen. The kitchen features all wood cabinets with ample storage, large pantry, and a center island that offers extra counter space. Right off the kitchen is the dining area and the living room. There is one bedroom downstairs and a guest half bathroom. Upstairs there is a landing area perfect for an entertainment area and 2 bedrooms with a full bathroom. Upstairs also has the large primary bedroom with his and her walk-in closets, en-

Key facts

• High ceiling
• Grand entryway
• Natural light

Tags

• GRAND ENTRYWAY
• HIGH CEILING
• NATURAL LIGHT
• AMPLE STORAGE
• LARGE PANTRY
• CENTER ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned R1; Lot approximately 0.29 acres (about 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)
• HOA & community: No association reported; No association approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with 20x22 dimensions; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Phone available; Solar energy
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two stories; Faces northwest; Homestead property
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with total building area recorded
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Fire pit; Outdoor lighting; Sliding doors; Chain link fence; Shed(s); Trees and landscaped yard; Paved road frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (31.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#527 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Greenway Elementary School (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,744 of 2,144 statewide, top 82%, 736 students, 67% FRL); Fort King Middle School (math 37% / reading 35%, grade F, #410 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 1,092 students, 71% FRL); Forest High School (math 36% / reading 54%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 2,325 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 683 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $305k implies a 810% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,811 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.74%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $348,540
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5347 Pecan Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,988 (-10%)	10mo	$319,000	$160	63
45 Pecan Course Loop	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,936 (-13%)	9mo	$299,900	$155	59
6229 Hemlock Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,936 (-13%)	22mo	$299,900	$155	44
39 Pecan Run Crse	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,936 (-13%)	11mo	$304,900	$157	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 0.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $68,519
• Equity at exit: $190,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $200,929
• Equity at exit: $344,233

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34472

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 683
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,078 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,324/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,325

Max offer price $270,520

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-23	-5% $-109	+0% $-195	+5% $-282	+10% $-368
Rent	-10% $-359	-5% $-277	+0% $-195	+5% $-113	+10% $-31
Rate	-1.0pp $-42	-0.5pp $-118	base $-195	+0.5pp $-274	+1.0pp $-355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45 Redwood Run Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,695	$1.18	23d	1	0.04mi
38 Pecan Run Pass Ocala, FL	4.0	2.5	2086	$2,100	$1.01	23d	1	0.56mi
106 Redwood Track Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,675	$1.19	15d	1	0.60mi
136 Hickory Course Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,990	$1.09	15d	1	0.80mi
149 Hickory Course Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,100	$1.15	15d	1	0.87mi
6875 SE 52nd St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,750	$1.08	23d	1	0.91mi
492 Hickory Course Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,750	$1.18	23d	1	0.93mi
5 Hickory Course Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	2319	$2,650	$1.14	15d	1	1.02mi
51 Hickory Course Trl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	2319	$2,300	$0.99	15d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $305,000 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $305,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $305,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   price $305,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,500 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $329,500 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $329,500 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $329,500 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $329,500 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,500 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $329,500 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-05-17
    price $329,500 1107-char remark
13. 2026-05-08
    price $335,000 1107-char remark
14. 2026-05-01
    listed $345,000 Active 1107-char remark
15. 2005-07-28
    soldstatus $33,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,324 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,532 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,207/yr (+$101/mo · 91.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$1,324
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,995
• − Management: −$1,995
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$7,859
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,886
• After-tax cash flow: $-456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #9854

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Springs Shores, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 34,665
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,851
• Household income: $64,208
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 255.0714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+810.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $305,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Listed $329,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $329,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $335,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $345,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $33,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2019): $1,324 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.